Global Investing

Not quite 99 emerging market beers on the wall

Should emerging market investors set aside their spreadsheets and crack open a cold one?

Their markets have zoomed higher from the March lows, with MSCI’s emerging markets stock index up 81 percent. Are they heading for a fall? Will investors soon be crying in their beer? And if so what kind?

Broker Auerbach Grayson held a rooftop fete this week showcasing emerging market versus developed market beers, with nary a Yankee brew in sight.

With the adventurous spirit and dedicated work ethic that can be found in all experienced emerging markets correspondents, I set in sampling the emerging brews first. No sip, swish and spit here, so the descriptions may get a bit more fuzzy as you read through the list.

It started with Argentina’s Barba Roja Aged Red Ale, the strongest of the evening at 9 percent alcohol. Not the one to slake your thirst on a hot August night, but it certainly can make your head spin faster than you can say “devaluation.” The smell is powerful, picking up deep scents of caramel. The taste is sweet as most extra-strong brews tend to be, but the finish is mild on the back of the palate. If only the Argentine government and its debt holdouts could settle up as gracefully.

from MacroScope:

Small credit for big depression

It took some time, and a lot of downward corrections to IMF GDP forecasts, before the current global economic downturn won the title of 'worst since the Great Depression'.

Why settle for second worst though?

This one is in at least three ways just as bad if not even worse than 1929-30, economists Barry Eichengreen (University of California, Berkeley) and Kevin O'Rourke (Trinity College,
Dublin) argue

Look at global industrial output, world stock markets, and global trade volumes. Map the nine months after April 2008 against the period following June 1929 and the story you see is the following: