-- Donald Steinberg is Deputy President of the International Crisis Group, www.crisisgroup.org. The views expressed are his own. --

Civilians are dying by the hundreds and possibly thousands in the northeast of Sri Lanka. As government troops converge on the remaining forces of the rebel LTTE (Tamil Tigers) in a tiny strip of coastal land, tens of thousands of civilians remained trapped in the crossfire -- getting killed and maimed in large numbers both by indiscriminate army shelling and by the rebels preventing them from fleeing, with equally lethal force.

Many thousands have managed to escape the free-fire zone in recent days, all with horrific tales to tell of those they left behind. Just how many civilians remain in the killing zone is not entirely clear. The government is saying that as many as 170,000 are now in government territory, with more than 100,000 people fleeing the zone since Monday.

Last month, however, they were claiming there were only 38,000 remaining to be liberated from LTTE control. Their current figure of 15,000 to 20,000 remaining with the LTTE should therefore be treated with great caution.

LTTE figures are also unreliable. The Red Cross says there could be 50,000 still trapped, and the UN publicly estimates 60,000. Sources on the ground put the figure significantly higher.

This is not just a numbers game. Knowing how many civilians remain trapped is critical both for preparing the international relief effort and for accountability. When the shooting stops, the government, which will surely defeat the rebels in this battle, must not be allowed to
hide missing thousands.

Unfortunately, the government is not allowing independent journalists into the conflict area to help establish these and other facts about what is happening there. Still, there are horrendous snapshots from aid workers and other reliable sources on the ground.

For example, an aid worker at one of the few remaining medical stations reported on Tuesday that the entire team was bunkered down due to the constant shooting, unable to treat any patients. He reported continuous heavy weapons fire in civilian areas with heavy casualties. He said that over 600 were seriously wounded in temporary medical posts, with about 100 of those dying soon after being admitted.

As firing has intensified, many of the injured are now not even bothering to come to medical points because it has become common knowledge no treatment is available. The ICRC reported on Wednesday that more than 1,000 seriously injured were in desperate need of treatment, but that medical facilities in what the government once called the safe zone have all but ceased to
function.

While the government and LTTE -- and their vigorous online supporters -- try to blame the other side for the current carnage, such accusations lead no where. The fact is, both sides are at fault, and both sides are almost certainly guilty of war crimes. The international community needs to put all possible pressure on the parties to end this madness, which is only causing extreme suffering among the civilian population.

The Sri Lankan government should halt its offensive, with its shelling of civilian areas, and accept a humanitarian pause monitored by the UN and the ICRC of at least two weeks to allow relief supplies to get in and a humanitarian corridor to be established for civilians to get out.

UN agencies and the ICRC should be allowed to assess the needs and numbers of the trapped civilians, and to bring in the relief supplies. The U.S. could help matters instantly by releasing its latest satellite images from the war zone. Relief agencies on the ground must be allowed full access to all areas and at all locations where either civilians or surrendered Tamil Tiger fighters might cross over into government-controlled areas.

Both civilians and fighters who agree to lay down their arms need stronger international guarantees of their safety. Only international supervision, unhindered by the government, can provide the necessary
level of protection. The recent surrender of two senior LTTE officials, including Daya Master, their former media coordinator, suggest that with better guarantees others would give up too.

The Tamil Tigers should immediately allow civilians to leave the area and cease forced recruitment. All means of influencing the Tamil Tigers must be explored, particularly stepped up restrictions on foreign
financing and support for the group. The Tamil diaspora has an important role in persuading the LTTE to agree to an internationally supervised pause and allow the trapped civilians to leave the target area.

In any case, continuing intransigence by the Tigers should not be an excuse for the government to delay a humanitarian pause or to act in a way that results in the death and maiming of its own citizens. Indeed, the government is obligated under the international doctrine of "responsibility to protect" to prevent these atrocities.

Finally, it should be made very clear by relevant governments and international organisations to leaders of both the Tamil Tigers and the Sri Lankan government that they will be held personally accountable for breaches of international humanitarian law. There is no excuse, and certainly no amnesty, for war crimes or crimes against humanity.

The world has woken up to this tragedy very late, but there is still time to save lives and lay the groundwork for future peace and reconciliation in Sri Lanka. The message must come from the highest levels: "The world is watching, and you will be held accountable."

(C. Uday Bhaskar is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. The views expressed in the column are his own.)

If elections are the single most visible element of the democratic experience, the biggest show on earth is all set to unfold on Thursday when a large percentage of more than 700 million voters will participate in the first phase of the 15th Indian general elections to the Lok Sabha – the lower house of the Indian parliament.

It is expected that up to 400 million Indians will cast their votes and yes, many of them are among the poorest of the poor – afflicted by what is euphemistically referred to as the ‘DAD’ syndrome – those who earn a dollar a day.

But this in no way detracts from the excitement and enthusiasm with which the average Indian participates in the general election.

As elections go, there is nothing to match the scale and diversity of these mega events and all kinds of statistical records and distinctive accomplishments are achieved.

Elections are about who comes to power through the ballot box – but it also engenders the most vile, venal and reprehensible practices that range from intimidation and politically motivated killing of rival candidates to bribing and other forms of inducement.

One hapless candidate, Vijay Bahadur Sonker of the little known Indian Justice Party who had entered the fray from Jaunpur in Uttar Pradesh – India’s most populous state - was found hanging from a tree on April 13. Earlier a candidate from Orissa was killed by local left wing extremists.

But on balance, the Indian Election Commission does a highly commendable job over the one month long period – and the final phase will conclude in mid May when a new government will be in place in Delhi.

The ballot does triumph over the bullet in India every five years and this resilience makes it a distinctive entity in the troubled southern Asian region.

The principal contestation is between the Congress-led UPA coalition with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the helm (though Sonia Gandhi is the President of the Congress party and the main crowd puller) and the BJP-led NDA coalition whose PM in waiting is Lal Krishna Advani.

In the run up to the voting on April 16, the campaigning and sloganeering has been shrill and no-holds-barred.

The audio-visual medium provides a much wider cost-effective reach and TV debates are 24×7 in myriad languages. But it would be misleading to infer that TV is the only domain where the slug-fest is going on.

Much of India is neither glued to TV or cyber-space savvy and ultimately the rural voter at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum will determine who will form the government in Delhi.

The key states will be Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Maharashtra (48), Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal (42 each), Bihar (40) and Tamil Nadu (39) that between them contribute almost 54 percent of the 543 member Lok Sabha.

Paradoxically, all these states have very strong regional parties and barring Andhra Pradesh where the Congress Party is in power currently, the two major national parties are on a weak wicket in these states.

Hence the relevance of the regional party in these elections. Most pre-poll surveys indicate that neither the Congress nor the BJP is likely to cross the 150 mark individually and hence a coalition government is inevitable.

Thus the birth of the ‘third’ and ‘fourth’ fronts which are a rainbow of regional and caste based groupings and they will be the critical ‘swing’ factor for forming the next government in Delhi.

The paradox continues, for despite the global perception that India has now entered the league of major powers, no single national issue dominates the current election campaigns and manifestos.

Employment and better socio-economic conditions encapsulated in the local jingles – ‘roti, paani, kapada, makaan, bijli, sadak’ (bread, water, clothing, housing, electricity, roads) – are the dominant themes and all kinds of inducements are on offer. These include rice at Rs 2 per kilogram and other subsidies – the fiscal deficit be damned!

On balance the elections will be free and fair and the penchant to play on identity – whether religion, caste or ethnicity will be strong. But the Indian voter is savvier with the passage of every such exercise and the communication revolution ranging from TV, radio and the mobile phone has introduced a level of connectivity and awareness that is unprecedented.

Yet the ultimate challenge is to ensure that the conduct of robust and enthusiastically participatory elections translates into equitable and corruption-free governance.

This Holy Grail has been elusive and hence the many distortions in the Indian democratic experience - but the contestation is a necessary first step and will be exhilarating.

Watch this space!

- Bill Clinton is founder of the William J. Clinton Foundation and the 42nd President of the United States. The opinions expressed are his own -

Fifteen years ago, when Pedro Zamora appeared on MTV's The Real World, he changed the face of HIV/AIDS in America.

For the first time, viewers saw an openly gay, HIV-positive young person on national television. As we followed his story each week, Pedro humanized the growing epidemic, reducing our ignorance and fears and increasing our determination to act. By living bravely and allowing MTV to show his story, Pedro set an extraordinary example of what a tremendous impact a single person can make in our world.

Pedro's story and his message remain powerful and relevant. Today, more than 1 million Americans are living with HIV, and 20 percent of them don't know they are infected. Infection rates are increasing among certain groups, including women of color. The HIV infection rate in Washington, D.C. - at 3 percent - is comparable to some African countries where AIDS is the number one cause of death.

It's critical for our nation to intensify the fight against HIV/AIDS here at home, starting with testing. Lack of information, misconceptions, and social stigma keep too many people from getting tested. Others mistakenly believe they have been tested as part of routine health care visits. Rapid result tests, including basic oral swabs, make it easy for anyone, anywhere in the country to be tested for HIV. Non-invasive testing is also available for other, more prevalent STDs, including chlamydia, gonorrhea.

Today marks the start of National STD Awareness Month. Several organizations on the frontlines of the HIV/AIDS and broader STD efforts are beginning a concentrated push to get as many people tested as possible this April. This is an opportunity especially for younger people who have never lived in a world without the threat of HIV/AIDS to confront these challenges head on. I urge all Americans, particularly those under age 25 who are sexually active, to get tested for STDs and make responsible decisions about their sexual health. Our actions now will shape the future of the AIDS epidemic and our country's health.

Abroad, we're fighting a different challenge: worldwide, there are 33 million people living with HIV/AIDS. Millions now have access to treatment, thanks to The Global Fund, the U.S. PEPFAR program, the Gates Foundation, UNITAID, and many others, including my foundation's HIV/AIDS Initiative (CHAI). More than 1.4 million people are now accessing more affordable, lifesaving antiretroviral treatment under CHAI's pricing agreements. But severe challenges remain in expanding access to everyone who needs it, in stopping mother-to-child transmission, and in preventing new infections.

This requires thinking big - building health systems that bring services to rural communities and increasing the number of frontline health care workers who can educate people on prevention, test those who need it, and supplying medicines for treatment. Without these basic, high-impact health services, too many people are dying and more are being infected than we can treat.

In the early 1980s, very little was known about the HIV/AIDS virus or its origin. We've made great progress on treatment and prevention, and in raising the awareness and developing political will necessary to address the crisis. But we still have a long way to go. We must continue to act on Pedro's message of prevention, understanding, and compassion, both nationally and globally.

That requires an open dialogue on sexual health issues, a dramatic increase in prevention practices, a willingness to be tested, and an all-out effort to bring prevention and treatment to the far corners of our Earth. We must remember what Pedro taught us: one person can change the world - and whether or not we are living with HIV or know someone who is, we all have a responsibility as global citizens to do whatever we can. Life is short enough as it is. No one should die from a disease that is both preventable and treatable.

Bill Clinton will introduce the feature film "Pedro" when it premieres on April 1.