June 19th, 2009

What would you do if you were the FM?

Posted by: Sidhartha Singh

The task before the finance minister is tricky as the Congress-led government gears up to present the annual budget for 2009-10 on July 6.

Reuters India asks its readers to don the FM’s cap and tell us what shape they would give to the budget to keep a country of over 1 billion people happy.

May 20th, 2009

Should Rahul Gandhi join the cabinet?

Posted by: Tony Tharakan

Prime Minister-elect Manmohan Singh has said he will try and persuade Rahul Gandhi, heir apparent to the Congress party, to take on a cabinet position in the new government.

Rahul Gandhi

Gandhi, whose father, grandmother and great grandfather were all prime ministers, had become the most visible campaigner of Congress in the month-long election to win over Indian youth as well as millions of poor villagers.

Critics say the political freshman is too young to deal with complex problems like Pakistan, and that as a member of an elite family he was disconnected from much of India.

But local reports suggest the 38-year-old bachelor may be offered the plum position of Information and Broadcasting Minister.

Should Rahul Gandhi join the cabinet? If yes, which portfolio would suit him best.

May 15th, 2009

Women wield power in election wrangling

Posted by: Rina Chandran

With the wrangling for allies in earnest ahead of election results due Saturday, women leaders hold an inordinate amount of power in deciding who will form the new Indian government.

Women leaders have always had a role in the rough and tumble of Indian politics, from Sarojini Naidu and Annie Besant in the independence struggle to Indira Gandhi, the second woman in the world to become prime minister.

Women leaders are perhaps at the peak of their influence now, with Gandhi's political heir regarded the most powerful of them all -- indeed, the most powerful political leader in the country.

Congress chief Sonia Gandhi is credited with energising the party and leading it to a surprising victory in the 2004 election, and she looks to have the lead this time around too, according to exit polls.

Gandhi, once voted the world's sixth most powerful woman by Forbes, walked away from the prime minister's job in 2004, but her influence over party allies and even with the on-again off-again left is unquestionable.

Her influence though, doesn't extend to Mayawati, the feisty and controversial leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party and chief minister of the potentially swing state of Uttar Pradesh, which sends a whopping 80 seats to the lower house.

Mayawati, hailed as queen of the lower-caste Dalits, is part of the Third Front, and a prime ministerial aspirant whose ambition mirrors her party's elephant symbol.

Known for her lavish birthday celebrations and love for giant statues of herself, Mayawati's massive following among lower caste Hindus, tribes and other backward classes is not to be trifled with.

At the other end of the spectrum is J. Jayalalithaa, a convent school-educated high-caste Hindu and leader of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in the potentially swing state of Tamil Nadu.

The former film star, a part of the Third Front, has allied in the past with both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party, and could be a kingmaker this time. A win for AIADMK would boost the prospects of the Third Front, and Jayalalithaa, who was once jailed on corruption charges, will be a vital pawnbroker.

As will Mamata Banerjee, leader of Trinamool Congress in left-ruled West Bengal state. With exit polls pointing to an erosion of support for the left, Banerjee -- who drove Tata Motors' Nano car project out of the state -- is on a good wicket.

"The outcome of this endgame is linked to women," political analyst Yogendra Yadav wrote in The Hindu newspaper.

Perhaps their examples will inspire more women to take the plunge into politics; there were only about 550 women candidates against more than 7,500 men candidates. Or are they not quite the role models we seek?

May 14th, 2009

Congress or BJP - who will win?

Posted by: Tony Tharakan
Poll symbols of the BJP (L) and the Congress

With just hours to go before the counting of votes, several exit polls have shown that India’s ruling Congress-led coalition is slightly ahead of the BJP-led alliance.

The probable lack of a clear winner has stoked concerns that the coalition that emerges after a month of elections may be unstable.

Which party will get the most seats? The Congress or the BJP — who will be invited to form the next government?

April 15th, 2009

Greatest democratic show on earth to begin

Posted by: Uday Bhaskar

(C. Uday Bhaskar is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. The views expressed in the column are his own.)

Uday BhaskarIf elections are the single most visible element of the democratic experience, the biggest show on earth is all set to unfold on Thursday when a large percentage of more than 700 million voters will participate in the first phase of the 15th Indian general elections to the Lok Sabha – the lower house of the Indian parliament.

It is expected that up to 400 million Indians will cast their votes and yes, many of them are among the poorest of the poor – afflicted by what is euphemistically referred to as the ‘DAD’ syndrome – those who earn a dollar a day.

But this in no way detracts from the excitement and enthusiasm with which the average Indian participates in the general election.

As elections go, there is nothing to match the scale and diversity of these mega events and all kinds of statistical records and distinctive accomplishments are achieved.

Elections are about who comes to power through the ballot box – but it also engenders the most vile, venal and reprehensible practices that range from intimidation and politically motivated killing of rival candidates to bribing and other forms of inducement.

One hapless candidate, Vijay Bahadur Sonker of the little known Indian Justice Party who had entered the fray from Jaunpur in Uttar Pradesh – India’s most populous state - was found hanging from a tree on April 13. Earlier a candidate from Orissa was killed by local left wing extremists.

But on balance, the Indian Election Commission does a highly commendable job over the one month long period – and the final phase will conclude in mid May when a new government will be in place in Delhi.

The ballot does triumph over the bullet in India every five years and this resilience makes it a distinctive entity in the troubled southern Asian region.

The principal contestation is between the Congress-led UPA coalition with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the helm (though Sonia Gandhi is the President of the Congress party and the main crowd puller) and the BJP-led NDA coalition whose PM in waiting is Lal Krishna Advani.

In the run up to the voting on April 16, the campaigning and sloganeering has been shrill and no-holds-barred.

The audio-visual medium provides a much wider cost-effective reach and TV debates are 24×7 in myriad languages. But it would be misleading to infer that TV is the only domain where the slug-fest is going on.

Much of India is neither glued to TV or cyber-space savvy and ultimately the rural voter at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum will determine who will form the government in Delhi.

The key states will be Uttar Pradesh (80 seats), Maharashtra (48), Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal (42 each), Bihar (40) and Tamil Nadu (39) that between them contribute almost 54 percent of the 543 member Lok Sabha.

Paradoxically, all these states have very strong regional parties and barring Andhra Pradesh where the Congress Party is in power currently, the two major national parties are on a weak wicket in these states.

Hence the relevance of the regional party in these elections. Most pre-poll surveys indicate that neither the Congress nor the BJP is likely to cross the 150 mark individually and hence a coalition government is inevitable.

Thus the birth of the ‘third’ and ‘fourth’ fronts which are a rainbow of regional and caste based groupings and they will be the critical ‘swing’ factor for forming the next government in Delhi.

The paradox continues, for despite the global perception that India has now entered the league of major powers, no single national issue dominates the current election campaigns and manifestos.

Employment and better socio-economic conditions encapsulated in the local jingles – ‘roti, paani, kapada, makaan, bijli, sadak’ (bread, water, clothing, housing, electricity, roads) – are the dominant themes and all kinds of inducements are on offer. These include rice at Rs 2 per kilogram and other subsidies – the fiscal deficit be damned!

On balance the elections will be free and fair and the penchant to play on identity – whether religion, caste or ethnicity will be strong. But the Indian voter is savvier with the passage of every such exercise and the communication revolution ranging from TV, radio and the mobile phone has introduced a level of connectivity and awareness that is unprecedented.

Yet the ultimate challenge is to ensure that the conduct of robust and enthusiastically participatory elections translates into equitable and corruption-free governance.

This Holy Grail has been elusive and hence the many distortions in the Indian democratic experience - but the contestation is a necessary first step and will be exhilarating.

Watch this space!