The Great Debate (India)

Bubble trouble for the Sensex?


(Nipun Mehta is Executive Director & Head – India, SG Private Banking. The views expressed here are his own)

Nipun MehtaAt a Sensex level of around 17,000, are the Indian equity markets looking at the face of a possible bubble in the offing? Terrifying words, probably unjustified for a market which is still 20 percent lower than its all time peak touched in Jan 2008. Let’s look at it from different perspectives.

In the Indian equity markets, unlike in other global markets, it is commonly believed that the day the roadside vendor starts giving ‘tips’ or the day cheerleaders with pom-poms start appearing on business channels, the top is near.

This time however, we have not yet seen any of this fanfare amongst investors or business commentators. There is hence little reason to believe that a retail investor driven bubble is on the horizon. Nowhere close to it actually, since there has been very little retail or high net worth individual (HNWI) participation in the rally of the last 9 months.