The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Wednesday expelled former finance minister Jaswant Singh from its primary membership for praising Pakistan founder Muhammad Ali Jinnah in a book.

The decision to expel Singh came after the release of his book “Jinnah – India, Partition, Independence” which the BJP said went against the party ideology.

As a visibly upset Singh, a founding member of the party, questioned the decision, the latest controversy to hit the BJP seems to have brought its internal conflicts out in the open.

Many pressing issues haunt the party as it begins its ‘Chintan Baithak’ – an annual brainstorming session.

The BJP was drubbed at the 2009 general election and faced a leadership crisis. Its elderly leaders are perceived as being out of sync with a young vote base and it has had an ideological falling out with its Hindu right-wing parent.

The BJP may need to take a hard look at these issues if it hopes to reinvent itself.

Singh’s book and its fallout have led some liberal thinkers in politics to question the wisdom of meting out punishment to an individual for expressing a personal opinion especially since larger issues like revamping the organizational structure of the party and its revival need to be addressed.

It is ironical that the controversy over Singh’s expulsion happened on the day the BJP top brass met in Shimla to chart out its future course of action after a dismal showing in the general election.

Do you think the expulsion of Singh, a veteran national level leader with a career spanning three decades, is yet another example of the BJP losing the political plot? Will it be able to resurrect itself in time for the next election?

As election fever reaches its peak amid the counting of votes on Saturday, all eyes are now on which party will cobble up a majority and stake claim to form the new government. And who will be India’s new prime minister? Will it be –

MANMOHAN SINGH

The father of India’s economic reforms, Singh’s image of a compromise prime minister opened him up to criticism that he took orders from Congress party boss Sonia Gandhi and he has been criticised as a weak and directionless leader.

He regained stature by pushing through a civil nuclear deal with the United States, despite opposition from his left allies.

Singh, 76, takes a keen interest in economic issues — a rarity in India where prime ministers focus mostly on foreign affairs and domestic politics.

LAL KRISHNA ADVANI

Variously described as a hardliner, a hawk and a wily politician, Advani is a leading advocate of his Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) trademark Hindu revivalism.

Born in Pakistan when it was a part of undivided India — he is hawkish about ties with Islamabad — the 81-year-old is more of a career politician than technocrat.

When Advani’s own coalition government was in power in 1999-2004, it pushed pro-market reforms including privatisation of state-run companies.

MAYAWATI

A caste-based politician known as the “Queen of the Dalits”, Mayawati, who uses only one name, has emerged as a strong political force.

Based in Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati, 53, has prime ministerial ambitions and she has played an important role in gathering opposition to the government.

If Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party does well, it could cast doubt on what economic direction a future government with her would take and further entrench caste politics nationally.

Will one of the three head the new government in the coming weeks? Or is there a dark horse waiting in the wings. Tell us who you are rooting for and why.

( C. Uday Bhaskar is a New Delhi-based strategic analyst. The views expressed in the column are his own)

The Ides of March have been linked with deep political intrigue and pre-meditated violence and history notes that Caesar paid a very heavy price for not paying heed to the sage advice rendered unto him.

Pakistan is no Rome but the pattern of recent events that include the ‘conquest’ of the Swat valley by the Taliban, the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in Lahore and the blowing up of the shrine of the Sufi-saint Rehman Baba at the foothills of the Khyber Pass by Sunni extremists are cumulatively indicative of a socio-religious tsunami whose tectonic implications go well beyond the political contours of Pakistan.

Concurrently the country is poised on the cusp of an irreparable breakdown between the two major political parties – the PML(N) led by former PM Nawaz Sharif, and the PPP led by the Pakistan President, Asif Ali Zardari.

This tragic paradox is heightened by the reality that while the disparate extremist groups that are broadly classified as the Pakistan Taliban are uniting under a common banner and leader – the political forces that can counter such ideology are splintering.

But then historically Pakistan has been plagued by myriad domestic contradictions and paradoxes and long-time Pakistani watchers see the current turbulence with a sense of déjà vu.

From the first military take over of Pakistan by General Ayub Khan in October 1958 to the more recent coup by General Pervez Musharraf in October 1999, the khaki constituency has always been the central element of power in the national matrix.

Even when civilian leaders have been elected – their authority has been notional. The real power centre remains the Pakistan Army and its Chief who represents the multi-dimensional corporate interests of the ‘fauj’ as an institution.

The military are the guardians of the national interest, which they define and then proceed to protect – even if it means cynically exploiting religion – as General Zia-ul-Haq had skilfully demonstrated.

The current political impasse wherein Nawaz Sharif has threatened to go on a ‘long march’ culminating in Islamabad on March 16 is a challenge to the legitimacy of the Zardari regime.

The huge crowds that attended the PML(N) rallies in Lahore and Abbotabad over the last few days are case in point. The Supreme Court decision against the Sharif brothers and the imposition of Governor’s rule in the province of Punjab has resulted in Sharif exhorting government officials not to obey illegal orders, thereby inviting charges of sedition – and the possibility of life imprisonment.

In this turbulent and contested domain where rumour is rife, there is talk of the khakis coming back – ‘reluctantly’ – as they did in 1958 and all eyes are on General Pervez Kayani, the COAS. The possibility that General Musharraf will make a comeback as an acceptable President is yet another strand.

Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani remains the dark horse in the melee.

The Ides of March have always been preceded by intense speculation on the street.

On the eve of his departure to Tehran (March 10), President Zardari observed: “Our focus on fighting extremism and terrorism remains strong and cannot be diluted. The people of Pakistan have made tremendous sacrifices in this fight and are determined to see the return of peace, stability and prosperity in the region.”

A day later, his very articulate and persuasive information minister, Sherry Rehman is denying reports that President Zardari has been advised to stay back in Dubai – for his personal safety.

Public opinion has not forgotten the dastardly assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December 2007. The same Taliban constituency with its anti-women virulence was behind the violent end of Bhutto. Her widower is caught in a maelstrom that is fraught with many disturbing possibilities.

The Ides of March will soon be upon Pakistan and both the ideology of Islam and the relentless pursuit of political power will be cynically contested.