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	<title>The Great Debate (UK)</title>
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	<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk</link>
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	<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:06:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Getting to grips with the post-Cold War security threat</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/06/getting-to-grips-with-the-post-cold-war-security-threat/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/06/getting-to-grips-with-the-post-cold-war-security-threat/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:31:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>John Reid</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[berlin wall]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[communism]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[defense]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Germany;]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[john reid]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[security]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/?p=4156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the 20 years since the Berlin Wall fell, there are far more sources of insecurity than there were during the Cold War.  The uncertainty this generates means that crises are more recurrent and the nature of the potential crises we face is constantly evolving. Are we prepared?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div><span class="539545213-06112009"></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt;"><a title="johnreid" rel="lightbox[pics4156]" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/11/johnreid.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-4158 alignleft" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/11/johnreid.thumbnail.jpg" alt="johnreid" width="200" height="169" /></a><span class="539545213-06112009"><span lang="EN">-John Reid, formerly the UK Defence Secretary and Home Secretary, is MP for Airdrie and Shotts, and Chairman of the Institute for Security and Resilience Studies at University College, London. The opinions expressed are his own. -</p>
<p>The fall of the Berlin Wall, on  November 9, 1989, was one of  history’s truly epochal moments.<span> </span>During what became a revolutionary wave sweeping across the former Eastern Bloc countries, the announcement by  the then-East German Government that  its citizens could visit  West Germany set in train a  series of events that led,  ultimately, to the demise of the Soviet Union itself.</p>
<p>Twenty  years on, what is most  striking to me are the massive,  enduring ramifications of the events of November 1989.<span> </span>Only several decades ago, the Cold War  meant that the borders of the  Eastern Bloc were largely  inviolate; extremist religious groups  and ethnic tensions  were suppressed, there was no  internet (at least as we know it today) and travel between East and  West was difficult. The two great Glaciers of the Cold War produced a frozen  hinterland characterised by immobility. </p>
<p>Today’s world is a vastly different place. When one of the great Glaciers - the former  Soviet Union – melted it helped unleash a  potential torrent of security problems. We now live in an era characterised by  huge mobility and instability, in  which issues such as mass migration,  international  crime and international  terrorism have a much higher prominence.</p>
<p>The end  of the Cold War, together with subsequent conflicts across Africa, the Balkans and the  Middle East, for instance,  has led to many millions of people migrating the globe in hope or fear.<span> </span><span> </span>In the West, this has given rise to pressure on jobs, healthcare, education, housing  and cultural identity, causing local populations to feel threatened. </p>
<p>While international  migration has generally been culturally enriching  and beneficial, it has nonetheless also increased the range of threats to our societies.<span> </span>For instance,  the 48 radical Islamicists implicated in terror plots in the United States between 1993 and  2001, including the 9/11 hijackers, all used legitimate  immigration devices (e.g. &#8220;green cards&#8221;, student/tourism/business visas, and amnesty  and asylum) to get into the country.</p>
<p>Getting  to grips with this specific threat is a major challenge and  the reason why, as UK Home Secretary,  I placed so much emphasis on the  need to overhaul our  immigration system. <span> </span>Key elements of the changes I championed include a new points-based system &#8212; which represents the biggest reform of UK  immigration procedures for more  than half a century; electronic border controls (all UK entry visas, for instance,  are now based on finger  prints); and the National Identity Scheme which features compulsory  fingerprint biometric identity cards for foreign nationals.</p>
<p>It is globalisation that lies at the heart of our transformational post-Cold War World.<span> </span>This inexorable process has extended the opportunities of  world-wide interchange. Driven by  technological advances in  transport, communications,  and electronic networks, globalisation has delivered massive opportunities in  terms of mobility, movement  and exchange of people, ideas, values, resources, commodities  and finance.</p>
<p>But this same globalisation process and associated technology has also brought major new threats, or intensified  existing ones, rendering everyone increasingly inter-dependent  and vulnerable. The threat we face is seamless,  running  across the boundaries of  defence, foreign affairs, domestic and social life.<span> </span>For instance, it has left nations  and peoples ever more  vulnerable to phenomena  ranging from international  crime and terrorism through to  cyber-attack, health pandemics,  energy-politics, resource shortage  and financial  crises.</p>
<p>The net  result is that there are far more sources of insecurity than during  the Cold War.<span> </span>The uncertainty  this generates means that crises (defined as crucial turning  points in events  rather than as catastrophes) are more  recurrent.<span> </span>Moreover, this bias towards instability is exacerbated by the fact that the  nature of the potential crises we face is constantly  evolving.<span> </span>In  the context of international  migration, for instance,  terrorists and other international  criminals are constantly  trying to find new  ways to evade our security safeguards. </p>
<p>Given  the complexity of the threats we face, it is essential as a nation  that we continually upgrade our capacity to deal with them by  identifying, exposing and  remedying our deficiencies. <span> </span>If we  are to be able to keep up, and  potentially be one step ahead of our adversaries, we will  increasingly need  to pool our ingenuity to innovate  and deliver solutions.</p>
<p>This is a relatively uncontroversial ambition, shared by many.<span> </span>But I  believe it requires nothing  less than new thinking,  new urgency and a  new approach to studying tomorrow’s security problems today.</p>
<p>That’s partly why we are establishing the Institute for Security and Resilience Studies at University  College, London. The new Centre  will address projects of vital importance to national  and international  security arising from  globalisation in the post-Cold War World. <span> </span>The goal is to assess and embed resilience as well as analysing  threats; and to extend this analysis into action  in outlining  policy options to shape our  preparation, response and  recovery to crises.</p>
<p>This insistence  on “embedding” resilience throughout organisational  structures and culture is  essential given the nature of contemporary society. <span> </span>Where there is, for instance,  now a global availability of  information through the internet,  satellite and mobile  communications, resilience to threats must be embedded in a decentralised way (rather than top-down). <span> </span>To the  degree that resilience  can ever be said to have  depended on an elite  management at the top of organisations,  this is no longer the case &#8212; hence the need to bring together practitioners from the public, private and third sectors with academics in order to combine theory and practice in targeted projects.</p>
<p>The goal must be nothing  less that ensuring that government,  business and society can not  only cope with, but flourish,  in the increasingly uncertain  times in which we live. The fall of  that wall symbolised the emergence of a world offering both unparalleled  opportunities and unprecedented insecurities. The challenge of maximising the  first and countering the latter is a legacy demanding an ingenuity and endurance  from the next and subsequent generations to match that of their  predecessors.</p>
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		<title>Remembering the dead - or &#8220;poppy fascism&#8221;?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/?p=4794</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/?p=4794#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Nov 2009 12:20:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Michael Holden</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Great Debate UK]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[UK News]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[armed forces]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[bbc]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[daily mail]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[poppy appeal]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Premier League]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/?p=4794</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Daily Mail wants all Premier League teams to wear a poppy on their shirts this weekend - are they right or just poppy fascists?]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="poppy" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/files/2009/11/poppy.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-4796" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/files/2009/11/poppy.thumbnail.jpg" alt="poppy" width="150" height="102" align="left" /></a>This week, hundreds of thousands of people will join the annual act of remembrance to commemorate those who have died in war, proudly wearing a poppy to honour the fallen.</p>
<p>However the simple flower emblem, which has been used since shortly after the end of World War One as it was the only thing to grow on the devastated battlefields of Belgium and northern France, has once again become an issue in itself.</p>
<p>Is the decision to not wear one an act of disrespect?</p>
<p><a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1225639/And-Bolton-join-poppy-parade--unlike-Manchester-United-Liverpool.html" target="_blank">The Daily Mail newspaper </a>is running a campaign, demanding that Premier League football teams have a poppy embroidered onto the shirts they wear this weekend. Twelve clubs initially said they would do so, but as the Mail turned its ire on those that didn't, all bar two -- Manchester United and Liverpool -- have now agreed to make the gesture.</p>
<p>The Mail said football teams wearing the poppy sent out a "powerful message of solidarity" to Britain's armed forces.</p>
<p>"All too often footballers - on and off the pitch - set a dreadful example to their young supporters," the paper said in its editorial. "It would be to their eternal shame if Manchester United and Liverpool snub the opportunity to demonstrate that their sport can be a force for good."</p>
<p>Footballers are by no means the first to be criticised for failing to wear a poppy. BBC, ITV and Sky News presenters and reporters all wear a poppy when they appear on our screens following complaints in the past, and even producers on <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/strictly-come-dancing/6497720/Strictly-Come-Dancing-producers-reverse-poppy-policy.html" target="_blank">"Strictly Come Dancing"</a> have come in for criticism this year for suggesting contestants should not wear the emblem because of health and safety fears. They have since backed down.</p>
<p>A few years ago, <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL1073891420061110" target="_blank">Channel 4 news presenter Jon Snow </a>described such insistence as "poppy fascism". He said he wore a poppy off air but would not wear one or any symbol -- such as an AIDS ribbon -- while broadcasting.</p>
<p>Guardian columnist Marina Hyde described the outrage of the Mail and other media commentators as <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2009/nov/05/poppy-appeal-premier-league" target="_blank">"phoney poppy apoplexy".</a></p>
<p>"The point so often ignored is that the second world war, in particular, was fought to allow people the choice in this and many other matters," she wrote. "Victory meant freedom from fascism, which makes Jon Snow's choice of words for this annual hounding of any public figure pictured without one – "poppy fascism" – particularly significant."</p>
<p>The Royal British Legion which runs the Poppy Appeal itself says that wearing a poppy was a voluntary gesture. But with British troops fighting, and signficant numbers dying or being wounded in Afghanistan, many argue that it is more important than ever to show the soldiers have the support of the public -- and the best way is by wearing a poppy.</p>
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		<title>When firms &#8220;Too Big to Fail&#8221; fall</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/05/when-firms-too-big-to-fail-fall/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/05/when-firms-too-big-to-fail-fall/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 19:13:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Julie Mollins</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[andrew ross sorkin]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[banks]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[financial crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[too-big-to-fail]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/?p=4120</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In 2008, Wall Street fell from the dizzying heights of good fortune to calamity in a matter of months. To a large degree it's still to early to tell whether financiers and politicians involved made the right choices, writes New York Times reporter Andrew Ross Sorkin in a new book.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amid the turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis a myriad of events unfolded that the general public knew nothing about, writes <a title="New York Times" href="http://www.nytimes.com" target="_blank">New York Times </a>reporter Andrew Ross Sorkin in a new book titled &#8220;<a title="Too Big to Fail" href="http://us.penguingroup.com/nf/Book/BookDisplay/0,,9780670021253,00.html" target="_blank">Too Big to Fail</a>.&#8221;</p>
<p>Wall Street fell from the dizzying heights of good fortune to calamity in a matter of months. To a large degree it&#8217;s still to early to tell whether financiers and politicians involved made the right choices.</p>
<p>&#8220;At its core &#8216;Too Big to Fail&#8217; is a chronicle of failure &#8212; a failure that brought the world to its knees and raised questions about the very nature of capitalism,&#8221; writes Sorkin in his behind-the-scenes account.</p>
<p>He spoke with Reuters before giving a lecture at the <a title="London School of Economics and Political Science" href="http://www.lse.ac.uk/" target="_blank">London School of Economics</a> on Thursday.</p>
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		<title>Google: Don&#8217;t Fear the Cloud</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/?p=19838</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/?p=19838#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:22:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Alexei Oreskovic</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Mediafile]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Gmail]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Google]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[privacy]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/?p=19838</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Google announced a new feature on Thursday that lets people view all the personal information they've entered into the search leader' sundry Web-based products over the years.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Google doesn't want you to be afraid of the cloud.</p>
<p>The company announced a new feature on Thursday that lets people view all the personal information they've entered into Google's sundry Web-based products over the years.</p>
<p><a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/files/2009/11/googdash41.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-19837" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/mediafile/files/2009/11/googdash41.jpg" alt="" width="279" height="400" align="left" /></a>The information in Google's new Dashboard covers everything from your personal account information for email and other Google services, to your viewing history on YouTube and the photos you've uploaded to Picasa. It's information that was always accessible in the past, but Google is now making it viewable in one, all-inclusive snapshot.</p>
<p>Privacy advocates have long warned that <a href="http://www.consumerwatchdog.org/corporateering/articles/?storyId=23623">Google is accumulating too much information</a> about people through its broad menu of Web-based services and not providing enough insight into how the information is being used.</p>
<p>Whether Google's Dashboard will appease them remains to be seen.</p>
<p>Google said it will begin by incorporating information from 23 Google products in the dashboard, with more to come in the weeks ahead.</p>
<p>Of course, the dashboard also has the benefit of reminding consumers about all the Google services they signed up for in the past and may forgotten about - a reminder that just could lead someone to start using a product again.</p>
<p>For Google, transparency has its benefits</p>
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		<title>Bank hedges bets with QE expansion</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/05/bank-hedges-bets-with-qe-expansion/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/05/bank-hedges-bets-with-qe-expansion/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:49:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Milliken</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[bank of england]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[david milliken]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[economic policy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[economy]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[quantitative easing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/?p=4105</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the Bank of England decided to expand its quantitative
easing policy by 25 billion pounds to 200 billion earlier on
Thursday, it was essentially hedging its bets.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="BRITAIN-BANK/RATES" rel="lightbox[pics4105]" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/11/rtxcdl1.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-4108 alignleft" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/11/rtxcdl1.thumbnail.jpg" alt="BRITAIN-BANK/RATES" width="200" height="136" /></a>When the Bank of England decided to expand its <a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKL411851120091105">quantitative easing policy</a> by 25 billion pounds to 200 billion on Thursday, it was essentially hedging its bets.</p>
<p>After Britain&#8217;s economy shrank unexpectedly in the third quarter, and with two thirds of the City expecting an expansion to the QE programme, simply shutting off the tap of government bond purchases would risk being more of a shock than the economy could bear.</p>
<p>On the other hand, the Bank clearly believes that the worst is over for the economy and that recovery will come soon &#8212; even if it&#8217;s going to be weak.</p>
<p>Thursday&#8217;s decision means the central bank will keep buying government debt until February, but at only half the pace of before. This still amounts to around 2 billion pounds a week, not including the much smaller sums of corporate debt that the Bank is buying.</p>
<p>What the decision means for a typical household is harder to calculate. The Bank says that its quantitative easing programme has raised the price of government and corporate<br />
bonds, making borrowing cheaper.</p>
<p>But for average firms and consumers looking for a loan, the benefit is harder to spot.</p>
<p>There is little clear evidence that banks are much more willing to lend than a few months ago &#8212; though the Bank would argue that quantitative easing has been instrumental in avoiding the recession turning into a depression.</p>
<p>In the longer term, the big unknown is the impact that quantitative easing will have on inflation. Sterling&#8217;s weakness against the dollar and the euro will push inflation up in the short term, and going forward the Bank of England said it faced a balancing act.</p>
<p>While rising unemployment and half-full shops and factories will keep a lid on prices, policymakers know that quantitative easing could exert upward pressure on demand and prices for months if not years after it has stopped.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why they took the decision today which could mark the gradual phasing out of this unprecedented policy of asset purchases.</p>
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		<title>Obama&#8217;s good war goes bad</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=5671</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=5671#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Nov 2009 14:40:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Bernd Debusmann</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[rolfe winkler]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Admiral Mike Mullen]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Bernd Debusmann]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Hamid Karzai]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[President Barack Obama]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=5671</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the protracted Washington debate over the war in Afghanistan, the most concise analysis comes from America's top soldier: "If we don't get a level of legitimacy and governance (there), then all the troops in the world aren't going to make any difference."]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="Bernd Debusmann" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/files/2009/07/bernddebusmann2.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-4294 alignleft" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/files/2009/07/bernddebusmann2.jpg" alt="Bernd Debusmann" width="150" height="150" /></a>In the protracted Washington debate over the war in Afghanistan, the most concise analysis so far has come from America's top soldier: "If we don't get a level of legitimacy and governance (there), then all the troops in the world aren't going to make any difference."</p>
<p>Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was speaking two days after Hamid Karzai was declared the winner, by default, in August elections so massively rigged that a U.N.-backed electoral complaints committee threw out about a million Karzai votes. That forced a run-off from which his challenger, former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah withdrew, saying the second round would be just as fraudulent as the first.</p>
<p>So much for an exercise in democracy President Barack Obama had used as his rationale for escalating the war a few months after he took office. "I did order 21,000 additional troops there to make sure that we could secure the election, because I thought that was important."</p>
<p>It was. It showed that the United States and its NATO allies are fighting on the side of a corrupt and discredited government in a war, now in its ninth year, for which, according to Defense Secretary Robert Gates, there can be no purely military solution.</p>
<p>An angry assessment of the Afghan leader last year by Thomas Schweich, a former top anti-narcotics official in Afghanistan, has proved prophetic. Karzai, he said, had been playing the Americans like a fiddle ever since he came to power. "The U.S. would spend billions of dollars on infrastructure improvement; the U.S. and its allies would fight the Taliban; Karzai's friends would get rich off the drug trade; he could blame the West for his problems; and in 2009 he would be elected to a new term."</p>
<p>U.S. officials, including Admiral Mullen, are now calling on Karzai to purge Afghanistan of corrupt officials by arresting and prosecuting them. This is an unlikely prospect. In his victory speech, Karzai said he would work to wipe off "the stain of corruption" but said that could not be done simply by removing corrupt officials.</p>
<p>The implicit notice that there would be no major house-cleaning followed a telephone call Obama made to Karzai to say it was time for "a new chapter based on improved governance (and) a much more serious effort to eradicate corruption..." If previous promises from Karzai are any guide, the new chapter will remain unwritten.</p>
<p>BOXED IN BY RHETORIC</p>
<p>Obama is close to making a decision on a request by General Stanley McChrystal, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan for as many as 40,000 additional troops. If the president followed the logic of Admiral Mullen's analysis, he would send none. But he will, because he is boxed in by his own portrayal of Afghanistan as the "good war" (as opposed to the war in Iraq) and his definition of why the U.S. must be in Afghanistan.</p>
<p>"This is not a war of choice," he said in a speech in August. "This is a war of necessity. Those who attacked America on 9/11 are plotting to do so again. If left unchecked, the Taliban insurgency will mean an even larger safe haven from which al-Qaeda would plot to kill more Americans. So this is not only a war worth fighting. This is fundamental to the defense of our people."</p>
<p>One of the most passionate arguments against this reasoning has come from Matthew Hoh, the first State Department official to resign in protest over the war. Hoh, a former Marine Corps captain, said in his letter of resignation that if the U.S. strategy really was to prevent al-Qaeda from regrouping in Afghanistan, then America should also invade and occupy western Pakistan, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen - all countries with an al-Qaeda presence.</p>
<p>"Our presence in Afghanistan has only increased destabilization and insurgency in Pakistan where we rightly fear a toppled or weakened Pakistani government may lose control of its nuclear weapons. To...follow the logic of our stated goals we should garrison Pakistan, not Afghanistan."</p>
<p>Instead, he wrote, the U.S. was following the example of the Soviet Union, a previous and unsuccessful occupier, by bolstering a failing state.</p>
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		<title>Is a bubble burbling in financial markets?</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/04/is-a-bubble-burbling-in-financial-markets/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/04/is-a-bubble-burbling-in-financial-markets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:24:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jane Foley</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[bubble]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[central banks]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[crisis]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[financial markets]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[forex]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[jane foley]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[quantitative easing]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/?p=4096</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If bubbles are a natural outcome of financial market activity it is relevant to ask whether the very loose fiscal and monetary policies of many central banks and governments are presently sowing the seeds of the next bubble.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="JaneFoley.JPG" rel="lightbox[pics0]" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/10/JaneFoley.JPG"><img class="attachment wp-att-3813 alignleft" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/10/JaneFoley.JPG" alt="JaneFoley.JPG" width="150" height="139" /></a>-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-</p>
<p>The discrediting of the efficient markets theory in the aftermath of the financial crisis appears to have been accompanied with growing support for the view that rather than efficient in nature, financial markets are predisposed towards the formation of bubbles.</p>
<p>A bubble can simply be defined as an occurrence that begins when the price of an asset has been driven significantly above it &#8220;fair&#8221; value. According to the efficient markets theory this would not happen.</p>
<p>If bubbles are a natural outcome of financial market activity it is relevant to ask whether the very loose fiscal and monetary policies of many central banks and governments are presently sowing the seeds of the next bubble.</p>
<p>Even though the real economies of the U.S., UK, Eurozone and Japan continue to be defined by expectations of rising unemployment and falling real wages, access to cheap money has already helped restore the profitability of many investment banks.</p>
<p>In turn, this has fed risk appetite which is evident in the rally in stocks since the spring, increased demand for &#8220;risky&#8221; currencies and a recovery in commodities prices. Brent oil has rallied by 128 percent from its 2009 low. The ability of oil to rally despite the existence of oil supplies well above the seasonal average suggests there is already speculative element in this market which could be in danger of driving prices above their fair value.</p>
<p>This week’s meetings of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank have focussed attention not so much on rates, but on the extraordinary policy decisions taken by these central banks in the wake of the financial crisis and whether conditions are ripening in favour of a gradual withdrawal of some of these policies.</p>
<p>The Fed last week ended its $300 billion treasury bond purchasing plan, though it will carry on buying mortgage backed securities. The Bank of Japan last week announced that it will stop buying corporate bonds at year end. The Reserve Bank of India also removed emergency support measures last week.</p>
<p>This week there is speculation that the ECB could announce that it will hold no more 12-month cash tenders next year. By contrast the Bank of England is expected to increase quantitative easing at the November 5, Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Supporters of quantitative easing continue to stress that the lack of clear inflation pressures suggests there is room for these plans to be extended.</p>
<p>However, the lack of response in either money supply or inflation indices could equally be illustrating that these plans are not having a significant impact on the real economy and are therefore no longer appropriate. The paring back of these plans are likely to have an impact on the ability of some banks to turn an easy profit and thus should rein in risk appetite and limit speculative and &#8220;bubble&#8221; forming activity.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, a bubble can only be truly confirmed after it has burst; a characteristic with clear destabilising consequences. If bubbles are natural phenomena within financial markets, the need for tighter regulation and ongoing reviews of processes that oversee the financial system are absolutely necessary.</p>
<p>This conclusion, while in complete contrast to the implications of the efficient markets theory, ties in very well with the political desire to reform the banking regulatory framework in order to protect the tax payer from future hefty bank bail-out costs. The banking landscape, while already vastly different from just two years ago could continue its transformation for years.</p>
<p>researchEMEA@forrex.com</p>
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		<title>Parliament 2010</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/04/parliament-2010/</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/2009/11/04/parliament-2010/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:41:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mark Jones</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Great Debate US]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[politics]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[social media]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/?p=4088</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Live coverage of the Edelman debate on social media and UK politics]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/11/parliament.jpg" rel="lightbox[pics4088]" title="parliament"><img src="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate-uk/files/2009/11/parliament.jpg" alt="parliament" width="450" height="289" class="attachment wp-att-4093 alignleft" /></a></p>
<p>We&#8217;ll be covering live the Edelman debate on social media and UK politics.</p>
<p><iframe src='http://embed.scribblelive.com/8/3/0/5/' width='400' height='500' frameborder='0' style='border: 1px solid #000'></iframe></p>
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		<title>Drawing the line against the Taliban</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/?p=4751</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/?p=4751#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 09:07:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Stephen Addison</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Great Debate UK]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Afghanistan]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Britain]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[howells]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Taliban]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/?p=4751</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A government watchdog has called for troops to come home and the line against al Qaeda to be drawn around Britain. Do you agree? ]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="afghan1" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/files/2009/11/afghan1.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-4752" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/uknews/files/2009/11/afghan1.jpg" alt="afghan1" width="150" height="111" align="left" /></a>Fight them there or fight them here?</p>
<p>Former Foreign Office minister Kim Howells poses the question in the Guardian in a piece made grimly relevant by Wednesday's shooting dead of  five British soldiers by an Afghan policeman.</p>
<p>Howells says troops should be brought back from Afghanistan and that the billions of pounds saved should be used to beef up homeland security in Britain -- drawing the front line against al Qaeda around the UK rather than thousands of miles away in Helmand province.</p>
<p>He accepts that such an approach would result in "more intrusive surveillance in certain communities," a tacit acknowledgment that Britain's Muslims would be subject to greater scrutiny by police and intelligence services.</p>
<p>His "Fortress Britain" theory takes into account indications that a growing number of experts feel the war against the Al Qaeda's supporters the Taliban in Afghanistan is unwinnable.</p>
<p>It also makes the point that not all Al Qaeda training camps are in Afghanistan anyway.</p>
<p>Howells is Gordon Brown's intelligence and security watchdog and his theory goes counter to the prevailing wisdom in Washington and London, both of which are preparing to send more troops to Afghanistan.</p>
<p>Do you agree with him?</p>
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		<title>Mickey&#8217;s Magic needed for Disneyland Shanghai</title>
		<link>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=5660</link>
		<comments>http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=5660#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Nov 2009 13:54:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wei Gu</dc:creator>
		
		<category><![CDATA[General]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[China]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Disney]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[disneyland]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Hong Kong]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[President Obama]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[shanghai]]></category>

		<category><![CDATA[Wei Gu]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=5660</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China has finally given a green light for Disneyland to build a theme park in Shanghai. The approval looks like a coup for Walt Disney Co, but it will take all of Mickey's magic to prevent the park from becoming another government-financed loss maker.]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a title="WeiGucrop.jpg" href="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/files/2009/08/WeiGucrop.jpg"><img class="attachment wp-att-5100 alignleft" src="http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/files/2009/08/WeiGucrop.jpg" alt="WeiGucrop.jpg" width="120" height="120" /></a><em>-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own -- </em></p>
<p>China has finally given a green light for Disneyland to build a theme park in Shanghai. Negotiations that started when Bill Clinton was in the White House have concluded just before President Barack Obama is due to visit. The approval looks like a coup for Walt Disney Co, but it will take all of Mickey's magic to prevent the park from becoming another government-financed loss maker.</p>
<p>Disney's last theme park in the region was anything but a hit. Hong Kong Disneyland was created in 2005 in an effort to boost employment in the epidemic-stricken region, but attendance numbers have fallen short of target. This hits the Hong Kong government harder than Disney, because the former not only took an initial 57 percent equity stake in the venture, but also spent $1.75 billion building related infrastructure like a metro line and ferry piers.</p>
<p>Shanghai Disneyland is likely to be financed in the same way. Estimates for the park's price tag are around $4 billion. The government and a group of Chinese companies will contribute about 60 percent of equity, with Disney paying for the rest. The Shanghai government is also likely to pay for the roads leading to the park.</p>
<p>The Hong Kong park has been a disappointment for a number of reasons, some of which might equally be relevant in Shanghai. It is the smallest Disneyland in the world, so it is crowded and not worth visiting for a second day. Culturally, locals identify more with the Ocean Park, which features pandas and sharks and is cheaper. Hong Kong Disneyland's public image has also taken a hit from a bout of food poisoning and accusations that it has exaggerated visitor numbers.</p>
<p>The Shanghai park will be 3-4 times bigger than the one in Hong Kong, making space for more visitors. But this will also increase the cost of relocating current residents. Some locals are busy adding a second floor to their homes so they can demand more compensation when they move out.</p>
<p>Shanghai has twice Hong Kong's population, but average income is only about a quarter that of its wealthier neighbour, so it's far from clear how many visitors will be able to afford a ticket that will cost the equivalent of two days of earnings for a college graduate. Then there is the possibility that the Shanghai park will divert visitors from Hong Kong.</p>
<p>There is also a risk of a culture backlash. Chinese children are less familiar with Disney characters than their counterparts in, say, Japan, home to Disney's most successful overseas theme park. That said, the Chinese have so far appeared to be receptive to the American cultural icon: Mickey Mouse Clubhouse appears on national TVs and Disney has opened a chain of language schools in Shanghai.</p>
<p>China's decision to relent after ten years says a lot about its changed priorities. Before, the government was concerned about the economy overheating, but now growth has become the top priority. While it is probably better to build a theme park than more empty highways, a second Disneyland might prove to be one too many.</p>
<p><em>-- At the time of publication Wei Gu did not own any direct investments in securities mentioned in this article. She may be an owner indirectly as an investor in a fund. -- </em></p>
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