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from The Great Debate:

The short and long of emerging markets

Fickle investors have spurned emerging markets in recent weeks, but this rout has obscured a more alluring vista out on the horizon.

Developing economies now account for 50 percent of global output and 80 percent of economic expansion and are projected to continue growing far faster than developed nations. They are expected to possess an even larger share of global growth, wealth and investment opportunities in years to come. So much so that the labels investors use to classify some of these nations will change as the developing develop and the emerging emerge into more potent economic powers

But this long-term view has been lost on many of those who look to emerging market assets for a higher yield in the short term. Their ardor cooled when the Federal Reserve signaled it may soon ease the stimulus that has kept credit cheap, signaling higher interest rates ahead. That was coupled with signs of slower growth in key emerging markets like China and Brazil.

Still, the developing world’s gross domestic product growth of 5 percent this year and 5.4 percent next, as projected by the International Monetary Fund, will far outpace the advanced economies’ 1.2 percent and 2.1 percent. Developing countries are now also better armed to keep panic at bay, with more foreign exchange reserves than before and less aggregate debt than developed nations. Many have put their economies on firmer foundations.

from Nicholas Wapshott:

The birth of a new prince

Now, after a torrid summer marred by natural tragedies, needless death, and devastating destruction, comes undiluted happy news. Kate, Duchess of Cambridge, has given birth to a prince. So, the first child of a commoner to be welcomed into the British royal family in modern times (Wallis Simpson tried to gatecrash in 1936 and was promptly asked to leave) has delivered an heir to extend the Windsors’ influence into the next generation.

The birth has set off genuine rejoicing around the world as a harmless piece of fun that only a humbug could find offensive. And the impeccably authentic upstairs/downstairs soap opera that makes “Downtown Downton Abbey” look like “The Days of Our Lives” has provided another romantic twist in an endlessly colorful plotline that began nearly two thousand years ago with the Kings of the Angles.

from The Great Debate:

Europe’s leaders should boycott Putin’s Olympic ceremony

In February 2014 the Russian elite will gather in the gleaming super stadiums of Sochi -- governors and oligarchs, police chiefs and “political technologists” -- to thunderously applaud as Vladimir Putin opens his Winter Olympics.

He has been dreaming of this for years.

But this is not a ceremony European leaders should attend.

In Sochi the Russian elite wants to dumbfound the EU -- not only with synchronized ice skating and Kremlin-coordinated firework displays -- but with a ceremony underscoring the absolute power of their leader.

from John Lloyd:

In Britain, a summer of quiet revolution

The British Isles are sentries in a turning world. The monarchy, pageantry, the mediaeval House of Lords, titles, accents, the established Church of England with the Queen at its head -- they all give the adroit illusion of continuity and the primacy of tradition over change.

But this summer there are diverse changes modernizing the Isles. These revolutions, small and large, will not be reversed, and will contribute significantly to a redefinition of what it is to be British (and Irish). The illusions of tradition will remain, as diligently served as ever. The core is hollowing out.

from The Great Debate:

Derivative rules: Global problem needs global solution

The 2008 financial crisis demonstrated how interconnected the global financial system is. What began as a real estate bubble fueled by subprime mortgages in many states ballooned into a global financial panic of unprecedented magnitude. Bundles of poorly underwritten mortgages generated toxic derivatives bet on in a global market. When the dust settled, there was broad agreement that not only did we need a new financial regulatory regime, it had to be globally coordinated.

The United States, the European Union, Britain, Japan and other nations should come up with a regulatory regime that works across all borders. This does not have to be the exact same set of rules and regulations, but rather compatible systems, based on a common set of definitions and structures.

from The Great Debate:

Historically, Egypt’s revolution is more of the same

The history of revolutions tells us one sad fact: Egypt is in for a long period of violence, chaos and upheaval before it even begins to enter into the Promised Land of democracy.

Many Western politicians and commentators expressed surprise and even alarm over Egypt's revolution, as the military ousted President Mohamed Mursi from power. Yet, examining the history of revolutions shows that these upheavals usually destroy more than they build – and, over the last 400 years, have rarely created durable democracies.

from The Great Debate:

Egypt: Elections do not make a democracy

An election is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for democracy.  That's the takeaway from the continuing upheaval in Egypt.

Last year, Mohamed Mursi became Egypt's first freely elected president.  Mursi won with 51.7 percent of the vote -- slightly more than the 51.1 percent that Barack Obama won in 2012. Mursi was the candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist organization that had been banned and persecuted in Egypt for 60 years.

from The Great Debate:

How Russia puts business behind bars

President Vladimir Putin at a news conference at the Kremlin in Moscow, July 1, 2013. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov

The Russian Duma approved its much anticipated amnesty for entrepreneurs on July 2, seeking to halt the legal onslaught against the Russian business community. More than 100,000 Russian businesspeople are now either in prison or have been subject to criminal proceedings, according to Boris Titov, Russia’s official ombudsman for the defense of the rights of entrepreneurs. He maintains that the majority are innocent.  Releasing them -- and improving Russia’s overall business climate -- remains critical as the Russian economy continues stumbling along with low growth and falling revenues.

from The Great Debate:

What just happened in Egypt?

It was not supposed to turn out this way: Only a year after Egyptians freely elected Mohamed Mursi as their president for a four-year term, he was removed by a military decree. This sets in motion a “road map” for a new transitional period leading to another experiment akin to the period following the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011.

The ambivalence was hard to miss. The sheikh of Al-Azhar Mosque, Egypt’s storied and influential institution, was there to lend legitimacy to the military decree. But his words told the story. He was compelled by sharia, he said, to choose the lesser of two evils in supporting early elections. But the ambivalence of the thousands of liberals who joined together in the protests at Tahrir Square and other public squares was even greater.

from The Great Debate:

D.C. scandals: They had Nixon ‘to kick around’

President Richard Nixon at a White House press conference during the Watergate scandal. REUTERS/Courtesy Nixon Library

The profusion of scandals bedeviling the Obama administration has evoked many comparisons with other presidencies -- particularly Richard M. Nixon. There is no evidence, however, of serious skulduggery by White House officials or members of the re-election campaign, as in the Nixon administration. More important, America’s over-excited and enticed puritanical conscience has not been mobilized to impute what Kafka called “nameless crimes” to the president as there was with Nixon.

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