The Great Debate UK

from The Great Debate:

China’s real problem with Bo Xilai’s legacy

In China, the political lens is focused on Bo Xilai, the disgraced former commerce minister and party chief of megalopolis Chongqing. While Bo’s contestation of the charges of bribery and abuse of power gripped the attention of the social media this week, Bo will probably not be a free man again and certainly not a public figure.

What the trial can’t undo is Bo’s legacy—which opened new channels for popular and elite dissent that is likely to haunt China’s new leadership.

The recent focus on Bo’s crimes and his ultimate punishment is vastly misplaced. In assessing China’s Bo problem, the real story is not bribery or corruption in the Communist Party. The leadership, which will surely be tested on that issue, at least will be undertaking a public campaign to address it and is making important progress.

Bo’s real legacy is in the way he eviscerated a slew of party norms by waging a public campaign for a senior leadership position. In doing so, he exposed dissonance in senior leadership circles over policies and even personalities--a dynamic that has not been observable in China at such a public level since the Tiananmen period. And most frightening for China’s new leaders: He came very close to getting away with it.

UK startups need to get big enough to fail

–Amanda Jobbins is Group Chief Marketing Officer of The Sage Group. The opinions expressed are her own.–

Start-ups are hot on the business news agenda. Their importance to the UK, and the economic recovery, has been emphasised by the vocal support David Cameron’s government has repeatedly voiced for start-up initiatives. The decision to employ Facebook’s former Vice President Joanna Shields as CEO of Tech City is a clear demonstration of the government’s investment, while the Conservative Party launched its own ‘Start Up Hub’ competition in Manchester earlier this year, which provides entrepreneurs with an opportunity to showcase their ideas.

The watered down version of Forward Guidance

The new governor of the Bank of England has shaken things up at the Old Lady. Not only has he brought a touch of glamour to the Bank, he is considered a George Clooney look-alike by some, but he has dramatically altered the way that the Bank does things. Since he arrived a little over a month ago we’ve had statements released after meetings and now the Bank has adopted forward guidance.

But has this central banker with a twinkle in his eye run into a brick wall at the BOE? The forward guidance that he announced during the August Inflation Report went down like a lead balloon. The markets immediately challenged the Bank’s pledge to keep interest rates low until 2016, UK Gilt yields at one point rose to their highest level since before he joined as Governor, and the pound also jumped sharply.

from The Great Debate:

The surprising force behind change in Cairo

In the space of two years, ordinary Egyptian citizens have organized and led two revolutions that caused two distinct dictatorial regimes to fall. These were street-led revolutions against autocratic regimes that had the support of the U.S. and were thus seen to be invincible.

Although a large majority of Egyptians regard the two events as movements within a single revolution, they were very different in motive and structure, just as the two regimes differed radically from one another. The 2011 revolution, which brought down Hosni Mubarak, was led by the upper-middle class, who recognized the need for large-scale social change to address widespread unemployment, an ailing economy, and rampant political corruption. The more recent revolution was a movement for all, brought about by Mohamed Mursi’s government and its inability to address the root causes of discontent -- poverty, inequality, the decline of living standards -- and their focus, instead, on securing their own grip on power.

from The Great Debate:

Greek bailout sham

Driven by its bailout loan terms, the Greek Parliament recently voted to lay off 25,000 more public employees. The public has responded with demonstrations while striking public sector workers try to disrupt air and rail travel, law enforcement and medical care.

How did Greece get to this point, where creditors dictate what jobs the government should cut as a condition for continued bailout loans, and where its outraged citizens take to the streets? What are the chances that Conservative Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ newest plans to fire or cut salaries of thousands of government employees will work?

from Felix Salmon:

How not to compete with payday lenders

I'm in the UK at the moment, where it's quite amusing to see the amount of attention paid to national institutions for which there is no American equivalent. Obviously, there's the way in which a woman having a baby became front-page news for days on end, generating astonishing quantities of coverage despite the fact that all the facts could be summed up in a single tweet. And then, on the financial side of things, you have the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby.

Yes, financial. The head of the Church of England gave a long interview to a magazine called Total Politics, and if you get through the first 3,000 words or so, you'll eventually find two paragraphs on the subject of payday lending. The archbishop says he would like to compete with High Street payday lenders, helping to build up a network of "credit unions that are both engaged in their communities and are much more professional".

from The Great Debate:

The short and long of emerging markets

Fickle investors have spurned emerging markets in recent weeks, but this rout has obscured a more alluring vista out on the horizon.

Developing economies now account for 50 percent of global output and 80 percent of economic expansion and are projected to continue growing far faster than developed nations. They are expected to possess an even larger share of global growth, wealth and investment opportunities in years to come. So much so that the labels investors use to classify some of these nations will change as the developing develop and the emerging emerge into more potent economic powers

from Nicholas Wapshott:

The birth of a new prince

Now, after a torrid summer marred by natural tragedies, needless death, and devastating destruction, comes undiluted happy news. Kate, Duchess of Cambridge, has given birth to a prince. So, the first child of a commoner to be welcomed into the British royal family in modern times (Wallis Simpson tried to gatecrash in 1936 and was promptly asked to leave) has delivered an heir to extend the Windsors’ influence into the next generation.

The birth has set off genuine rejoicing around the world as a harmless piece of fun that only a humbug could find offensive. And the impeccably authentic upstairs/downstairs soap opera that makes “Downtown Downton Abbey” look like “The Days of Our Lives” has provided another romantic twist in an endlessly colorful plotline that began nearly two thousand years ago with the Kings of the Angles.

from The Great Debate:

Europe’s leaders should boycott Putin’s Olympic ceremony

In February 2014 the Russian elite will gather in the gleaming super stadiums of Sochi -- governors and oligarchs, police chiefs and “political technologists” -- to thunderously applaud as Vladimir Putin opens his Winter Olympics.

He has been dreaming of this for years.

But this is not a ceremony European leaders should attend.

In Sochi the Russian elite wants to dumbfound the EU -- not only with synchronized ice skating and Kremlin-coordinated firework displays -- but with a ceremony underscoring the absolute power of their leader.

from John Lloyd:

In Britain, a summer of quiet revolution

The British Isles are sentries in a turning world. The monarchy, pageantry, the mediaeval House of Lords, titles, accents, the established Church of England with the Queen at its head -- they all give the adroit illusion of continuity and the primacy of tradition over change.

But this summer there are diverse changes modernizing the Isles. These revolutions, small and large, will not be reversed, and will contribute significantly to a redefinition of what it is to be British (and Irish). The illusions of tradition will remain, as diligently served as ever. The core is hollowing out.

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