The Great Debate UK

from Commentaries:

Consolidation Air, nobody’s favourite airline

JAL/With airlines around the world struggling to survive the economic downturn, the time should be nearing to break the taboo of consolidation in the sector.

Airlines around the globe face losses of $11 billion in 2009, according to IATA. Margins are expected to fall this year and next, with analysts predicting carriers are likely to struggle for years to reach levels needed to produce an acceptable return for capital market investors.

Societe Generale estimated in a recent note that margins would drop to -3.1 percent in 2010 before recovering to 1 percent in 2011, well short of the 10 percent needed.

Effectively we are back to the ice age of 2001-2.

Eight years ago, the collapse of Sabena and Swissair kicked open the door of cross-border consolidation -- within Europe at least. But while deals like Lufthansa's merger with the Swiss airline allowed for some rationalisation, the merged entities remain hamstrung by national aviation regulations.

from Raw Japan:

Highway to the stranger zone

Not so long ago, once proud Japan Airlines had few friends besides the government, which threw it a $1.1 billion bone in the form of emergency support in June to keep the national flag carrier in the pink, if not the black, as Asia's largest airline by revenues continued to bleed money -- about $1 billion in the last quarter -- and painfully restructure.

But in a weekend, JAL has suddenly become the belle of the Pacific ball, with both Delta and American Airlines possibly looking at minor stake acquisitions worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and public broadcaster NHK reporting that it is also eyeing a capital injection from Air France-KLM, all likely dictated by a state-supervised restructuring plan due by month's that may carry another plea for government aid.

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