The Great Debate UK

Why volcanoes are likely to continue to cause chaos in Europe

By Dr Andy Hooper. The opinions expressed are his own.

Within the space of just over a year, aircraft have now been grounded in Europe twice by ash blowing in from Iceland.  This has caused many millions of pounds of disruption.

A key question uppermost in many minds is whether the frequency of eruptions in Iceland is increasing. The short answer here is ‘yes, probably’. But, it is not just the frequency of eruptions that matters.  To impact the airspace of the United Kingdom and continental Europe, the ash has to be ejected high enough, and be fine enough that it can remain airborne for days.  Then the winds have to conspire to push it towards Europe, and the winds blow over Iceland from the north only a small fraction of the time.

Studies by researchers at the University of Iceland have noted that the frequency of eruptions from volcanoes beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap (including Grímsvötn, which erupted in May this year) seems to wax and wane with a cycle of about 140 years.

Prior to the 1980s, there were no such eruptions from these volcanoes for over 40 years and there have now been four within 15 years.  The reason for the apparent cyclicity is not established but, in any case, we appear very likely to have entered a phase of more eruptions.

from Global News Journal:

Volcano chaos: A pointer to potential Iran/Gulf smoke disruption?

As if they didn’t have enough to think about, planners trying to pin down the unintended consequences of a strike on Iran may be required to reorder their lengthy worry list.

The concern? Iceland’s volcano, or rather, the vivid reminder the exploding mountain provided to governments of the importance of civil emergency planning.

Why the Icelandic volcano could herald even more disruption

- Dr Andrew Hooper is an Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology and is an expert on monitoring deformation of Icelandic volcanoes. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The unprecedented no-fly zone currently in force across much of Europe has already caused the greatest chaos to air travel since the Second World War.  Thousands of flights have been cancelled or postponed with millions of travel plans affected.