The Great Debate UK

from MacroScope:

Banking on a Portuguese bailout?

November 30, 2010

portgualprotest.jpgReuters polls of economists over the last few weeks have come up with some pretty firm conclusions about both Ireland and Portugal needing a bailout from the European Union.

from Global Investing:

Solar activities and market cycles

November 29, 2010

Can nature's cycles enrich our finance and market theories?

Market predictions based on the alignment of the sun, moon and the earth and other cycles could help investors stay disciplined and profit in economic storms, says Daniel Shaffer, CEO of Shaffer Asset Management.

from Breakingviews:

It’s 50 years since shares looked this cheap

September 8, 2010

-- The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

Banks, borrowing, bonds and Britain’s budget

June 21, 2010

BRITAIN/

-Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. Join Reuters for a live discussion with guests as UK Chancellor George Osborne makes  an emergency budget statement at 12:30 p.m. British time on Tuesday, June 22, 2010.-

UK chancellor has mixed message for gilt investors

May 18, 2010

– Ian Campbell is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

from Global News Journal:

If Greece’s debt dam breaks, who gets wet?

April 13, 2010

The 16 countries that share the euro single currency have agreed they will help Greece out if it needs. So far so good. But only now is the nitty-gritty of how member states will go about paying for their contributions being hammered out. And suddenly things are getting a little complicated.

from Breakingviews:

Crisis forgotten in bond-buying frenzy

April 2, 2010

Lenders do not seem to be good learners. To judge from the credit market, the 2008-9 crisis might never have happened. Perhaps this is the healthy fading of traumatic memories, but the current buying frenzy looks more like a return to an old bad habit.

from Global Investing:

The art of being passive

February 26, 2010

Hundreds or even thousands of  "active" fund managers are competing to add alpha to beat benchmark indexes, be it in stocks, bonds or alternatives.

from MacroScope:

Political economy and the euro

February 8, 2010

The reality of  'political economy'  is something that irritates many economists -- the "purists", if you like. The political element is impossible to model;  it often flies in the face of  textbook economics;  and democratic decision-making and backroom horse trading can be notoriously difficult to predict and painfully slow.  And political economy is all pervasive in 2010 -- Barack Obama's proposals to rein in the banks is rooted in public outrage; reading China's monetary and currency policies is like Kremlinology; capital curbs being introduced in Brazil and elsewhere aim to prevent market overshoot; and British budgetary policies are becoming the political football ahead of this spring's UK election. The list is long, the outcomes uncertain, the market risk high.

from Breakingviews:

Contingent capital and the black horse’s head

November 3, 2009

Lloyds seems to be taking a leaf out of Vito Corleone's book: if you need someone to do something that they don't want to, you have to make them an offer they can't refuse. For the mafia boss in The Godfather, that meant decapitating a horse. For Lloyds, the UK bank whose logo is a black horse, it means threatening to cut off interest payments on your own debt.