The Great Debate UK
from The Great Debate:
Myths around China’s revitalization plan
-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --
China investors should care about three major numbers this year: 8 percent economic growth, its 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package, and the 10 industries revitalization plan.
The first is the government's economic growth target and the second is a spending plan to shield the economy from the global financial crisis.
A lot has been said about the first two numbers, but not enough about the third. Indeed, there are at least three misunderstandings about the latter.
First, perhaps misled by the word "revitalization," many people talk about the plan as if it is another set of recovery measures to boost investment demand. On the contrary, it mostly contains policy measures aimed at reducing supply.
from The Great Debate:
Economic stimulus Beijing-style: I treat, you pay
-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own. --
Beijing may criticize American consumers for spending money they do not have, but the truth is Chinese leaders do the same, they just make sure it doesn't end up on their account.
In its $585 billion economic stimulus package, the central government is contributing just a quarter of the funds needed, leaving the rest of the tab to banks, local governments and the private sector.
from The Great Debate:
Advancing global Internet freedom
-- Leslie Harris is the president and CEO of the Center for Democracy and Technology in Washington, DC. The views expressed are her own. --
In the wake of troubling reports as recently as last year that Western companies were assisting China with Internet censorship and the unmasking of cyber-dissidents, governments around the world seemed poised to regulate the conduct of Internet companies. Lawmakers appear to have stepped back from those efforts, but the challenges of advancing global Internet freedom remain.
from The Great Debate:
First 100 Days: Obama’s foreign policy challenges
-- Willis Sparks is a Global Macro analyst at the political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group. The views expressed are his own. --
Few things in life amused my dad more than a good karate movie. I once asked what he found so funny about Bruce Lee’s jaw-dropping display of poise and power. “Nice of the bad guys to attack him one at a time,” he said. In the real world, threats don’t arrive single-file, like jets lining up for takeoff.
from Africa News blog:
Time to stop aid for Africa?
Far from being all bad news for Africa, the global financial crisis is a chance to break a dependence on development aid that has kept it in poverty, argues Zambian economist Dambisa Moyo, who has just published a new book “Dead Aid”.
Moyo’s book, her first, comes out at a time when Western campaigners, financial institutions and some African governments have been warning of the danger posed to Africa by the crisis and calling for more money from developed countries as a result. The former World Bank and Goldman Sachs economist spoke to Reuters in London.
from Davos Notebook:
The shift in power from West to East
One news theme I've asked our journalists to be alert to this year is the shift in power and emphasis from est to East.
The rise of China's economic power during 30 years of reform and opening to the world is just one manifestation of this; the knowledge and service powerhouse that India has come in a globalised world is another. At Davos this year I'm moderating a panel on Asian innovation that will surely highlight software advances in Japan, Korea and Thailand as well.
from The Great Debate:
China Inc. takes stock after overseas buying spree
-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --
Abundant liquidity, government support and a strong yuan fueled Chinese companies' overseas buying spree.
But since they went out at the peak of the market and did not have a clear strategy for acquisitions, it should come as no surprise that most of those deals have turned sour. Once bitten, twice shy.
from The Great Debate:
Global imbalances and the Triffin dilemma
-- John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --
For the world monetary system, the financial crisis which erupted in the summer of 2007 is a cataclysmic shift that will prove every bit as significant as the outbreak of the First World War (which heralded sterling's demise as a reserve currency) and the suspension of gold convertibility in 1971 (which marked the end of bullion's monetary role).
The crisis marks the passing of an era in which the U.S. dollar has been the world's undisputed reserve currency for making international payments and storing wealth.
from The Great Debate:
Downturn hits China’s manufacturing heartland
-- John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own --
The global slowdown is hitting China's modern manufacturing base in Guangdong province especially hard. Deputy governor Huang Longyun on Thursday warned a news conference "the situation is grim" and the manufacturing hub around Pearl River Delta is bearing the brunt of China's slowdown.
Guangdong's burgeoning factories have supplied most of the cheap manufactured items flooding world markets in the last five years. They have also been the source of most of the marginal demand for crude oil, refined products and other raw materials. The province's slowdown will therefore have profound effects on global markets and prices in 2009.
from The Great Debate:
China’s growth obsession may spawn jobless upturn
-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --
China is pulling all the stops to keep the economy growing by at least 8 percent, a pace considered necessary to absorb millions of migrant workers and graduates that hit the job market every year.
Ironically, with all its attention focused on the vigorous "defense of the eight", Beijing risks losing sight of its ultimate goal -- creating enough jobs to preserve social peace -- and may end up engineering a jobless recovery.
