The Great Debate UK

Waiting for the other shoe to drop

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-Laurence Copeland is professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own and do not constitute investment advice. -

The unemployed and the terminal insomniacs who have nothing better to do than read my blogs will know that I have long been gloomy about most of the Western economies. How can you fail to be pessimistic when the world economy is still dominated by the U.S. – a basket case, becoming weaker every day, with a political class too blind or too scared to admit in public the obvious fact that the country cannot carry on living beyond its means?

Now house prices are plunging again and, with the dollar still strong, the prospects for an export-led recovery look bleak. In fact, a return to recession is far more likely, and the markets are starting to show signs of that sickening here-we-go-again feeling.

How will it all end?

Anyone who claims to know how this will all play out is on no account to be trusted, but there’s nothing wrong with trying to guess – in fact, that’s exactly what we have to do before we can decide what assets to invest in, or whether to invest at all rather than simply blowing it all on a long bankruptcy binge.

Bank of England Inflation report offers markets a reality check

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-Mark Bolsom is Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own.-

Sterling tumbled to a one week low against the dollar in trading this morning, after the Bank of England delivered its latest quarterly inflation and growth forecasts today.

Sluggish U.S. economy may threaten UK business development

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- Paddy Earnshaw is the Director of Customer Relations at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own.-

British importers and exporters’ confidence in the economy leapt in July, as positive economic data fuelled hopes for a return to strong economic growth. According to the Travelex Confidence Index (TCI), which jumped 12 points in July to 116, from 104 in June, strong gains were driven by quarter 2′s GDP figure, as it showed the UK grew at its fastest pace in four years.

“Impossible” balancing act to perform with stress tests

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-Tiffany Burk is the European Market Analyst at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are her own.-

Commentators have suggested that the hype surrounding the release of the EU bank stress tests has made it feel more like a PR campaign than a credible financial analysis.

Pound recovers as Osborne outlines fiscal plans

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- Mark Bolsom is head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own. -

As widely expected, Chancellor George Osborne took a tough stance in his first budget and unveiled some “unavoidable” cuts and taxes.

UK economy’s make-or-break budget

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- Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading desk at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own-

Later today, Chancellor George Osborne will unveil his first budget, where he is widely expected to take a tough stance. To the financial markets, this emergency budget is the agenda-setting piece of this parliament. Markets, media, consumers and businesses alike have all braced themselves for what has been billed as the sharpest fiscal tightening since the end of the Second World War.

Is the re-pricing in stocks and oil complete?

-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

The better tone in stock indices and oil prices that has appeared this week begs the question as to whether the bout of re-pricing is complete.

Risk aversion comes screaming back

-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

The Greek fiscal crisis has forced investors to weigh up the risks of sovereign default very carefully.

A hung parliament offers sterling little comfort

-Mark Bolsom is head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own.-

The final results are almost fully in and despite months of intense speculation the hung parliament outcome has come as an almighty shock to the financial markets.

What’s next in EMU after Greece deal?

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Jane Foley-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

The European Union has finally agreed that an Economic and Monetary Union member country in serious fiscal difficulties will be able to receive bi-lateral assistance from its Eurozone partners as well as draw support from the International Monetary Fund.

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