The Great Debate UK

from Anatole Kaletsky:

What’s Europe’s best hope for avoiding a second euro crisis?

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This week’s theatrical resignation threat by Manuel Valls, the French prime minister, combined with deep European anxiety about deflation, suggest that the euro crisis may be coming back. But a crisis is often an opportunity, and this is the hope now beginning to excite markets in the eurozone.

Investors and business leaders are asking themselves three questions: Will European governments and the European Central Bank recognize the unexpected weakness of the eurozone economy as an opportunity to change course? If they do, will they know how to grasp it? And will they be allowed to do what is necessary by the true economic sovereign of Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel?

First, the opportunity. Europe still has a chance to save itself from a Japanese-style lost decade of stagnation and deflation. And this may well be a last chance, because a lost decade in Europe could produce some very un-Japanese social rebellions and political upheavals. Europe, after all, lacks Japan’s social consensus, national unity and financial cohesion. It is far from clear that Europe could survive 10 years of recession without up the eurozone breaking up and even perhaps the European Union.

Second, what must Europe do to save itself from stagnation and disintegration? The obvious answer is to follow something similar to the “three arrows” program popularised (though not genuinely implemented) by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe. Abe’s “three arrows” were: aggressive monetary stimulus; fiscal easing requiring suspension of deficit and debt targets, and structural reforms to correct long-term weaknesses in both supply and demand.

from MacroScope:

Did France cause The Great Depression?

Economist Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College has stirred up a bit of a fuss by concluding in some academic research that it was France, not the United States, that was most to blame for The Great Depression.

Irwin's theory, in a paper posted here by the National Bureau of Economic Research, is that France created an artificial shortage of gold reserves when it increased its share from 7 percent to 27 percent between 1927 and 1932.  Because major currencies at the time were backed by gold under the Gold Standard, this put other countries under enormous deflationary pressure.

Why the world needs a weaker dollar

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IRAN-CURRENCY/RATE/Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.

Ever since the last Federal Reserve meeting when the prospect of further policy stimulus for the US gripped the market, dollar weakness has been the dominant theme in FX. The Fed action is considered in some quarters as a backdoor form of currency devaluation, and there has been talk of a global “currency war” as a result.

from The Great Debate:

Here lies the Great American Consumer

jamessaft1.jpg--James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--

Rest in peace, Great American Consumer. We will not see your like again.

"Cash-for-clunkers" aside, consumers seem bent on actually paying back debt rather than racking it up, a change that if sustained, as it is likely to be, will dampen economic growth not for months but for years, and not just in the U.S.

Outstanding U.S. consumer borrowing fell by a jaw-dropping $21.6 billion in July, according to data released this week by the Federal Reserve, five times more than analysts expected and the second largest monthly drop since the end of World War II.

Predicting the economic effects of swine flu

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dm1- Marie Diron is senior economist at Oxford Economics. The opinions expressed are her own -

A swine flu pandemic would affect the economy via various channels involving supply and demand.

from The Great Debate:

The ugly attraction of fast shrinking Japan

James Saft Great Debate -- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

Sure, seeing your economy shrink at a 15 percent annual clip is depressing, quite literally, but if you believe in even a tepid global economic recovery in the second half, then Japan is actually attractive.

There is no way to sugar coat the first quarter Japanese gross domestic product figures released on Wednesday: they are breathtakingly bad viewed from virtually any angle.

Deflation? It’s inflation you need to watch

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– David Kuo is a director at the financial Web site The Motley Fool. The views expressed are his own. –

david-kuo_motley-foolWhat are consumers supposed to make of the latest inflation numbers? Do we have inflation, deflation or a bit of stagflation?

from The Great Debate:

Fighting deflation globally ain’t easy

James Saft Great Debate -- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

With the U.S., Japan and Britain -- nearly 40 percent of the global economy -- facing the threat of deflation, it's going to be just too easy for one, two or all three of them to get the policy response horribly wrong.

The global economy is so connected, and our experience with similar situations so limited that the scope for error is huge.

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