The Great Debate UK
International crises and the value of Global System Dynamics
-Lord Julian Hunt is a Visiting Professor at Delft University of Technology. The opinions expressed are his own.-
In their different ways, the disruption and damage caused by the ongoing Icelandic Volcano eruption, and the major oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, have underlined how low-probability events can wreak havoc locally and across the world.
Both events underline the continuing need for well-established crisis response by international bodies. Risk assessments taking into account all the diverse scientific and social interactions should enable the public and private sector to prepare in advance.
• Although international procedures by UN bodies for dealing simultaneously with volcanic eruptions, meteorology and aviation had been agreed and tested at a technical level since the 1990s, the disruption caused by the Icelandic volcano led EU Transport Ministers call for quicker and more coordinated reaction to such crisis situations.
• In the Gulf of Mexico, the “unprecedented environmental disaster” from the oil spillage shows the need for environmental risk assessment as much as economic risks now being considered in the context of the volcano.
While the volcano and oil spills have causes and consequences that can be explained in terms of earth science, engineering, ecology and economics, other disruptive events with rapid global impacts can result simply from people’s actions — notably the fall of Lehman Brothers and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
BP Gulf of Mexico crisis will transform the oil industry
-Kees Willemse is professor of off-shore engineering, Delft University. The opinions expressed are his own.-
The news that a huge metal cap has been successfully placed over several of the leaking oil vents at the Deepwater Horizon site marks a potential turning point in the Gulf of Mexico crisis.
It is already estimated that each day some 10-15,000 barrels of the oil that are spilling out into the ocean are being captured and diverted to ships on the sea surface.
Despite this engineering success, a complete end to the oil leakage is unlikely until new relief oil wells are completed — a drilling process that could take most of the summer, and potentially into the autumn. This is because the newly installed metal cap is unlikely, even in the best case scenario, to stop all of the oil spilling out.
In advance of the completion of the relief wells, a potentially major new complicating factor is the arrival of the hurricane season last week.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is already predicting between 8 and 14 hurricanes this season, with perhaps a similar number of smaller storms, any of which could complicate (or indeed force a postponement) of the ongoing mitigation and clean-up activities in and around Deepwater Horizon.
As a temporary measure to minimize damage while relief wells are being drilled, I wonder whether the oil could be funneled directly from the uncapped vents to a tanker or other holding container (positioned at the site), where from it could be transported and utilized.
Haiti: Beyond the conventional redevelopment paradigm
-Alexander Vollebregt is Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology and Head of the Urban Emergencies Programme. The opinions expressed are his own.-
At the request of President Rene Preval’s Strategic Advisory Group, several members of Delft University’s Urban Emergencies Centre are now working with the Haiti authorities to assess how post-disaster urban redevelopment can support the rebuilding process in Port au Prince.
We believe what is now urgently needed is a paradigm shift in current thinking and methods in order to facilitate sustainable reconstruction in the country and indeed similarly disaster effected areas.
Since the devastating earthquake on January 12, 2010, international organisations, aid and money have flooded into Haiti; the government itself having little control over the reconstruction efforts. This disjunction between the local, governmental and international organizations could hamper any significant long-term reconstruction and development, creating a post-disaster transitional environment that never transitions.
To achieve this goal, it is essential to better integrate grassroots (local) voices with international NGO and governmental voices. This will create a mutual platform for contributing knowledge about what is best long term for this devastated landscape and peoples.
This perspective stems from a major study that Delft University undertook last year on Urban Emergencies. This included a focus using action research in order to investigate various aspects of disaster relief management and reconstruction process such as hurricane proofing, risk assessment, spatial planning, socio-economical development, land administration and water, waist and energy management.
The Delft research focused upon the interrelationship of the social, spatial, political and economical consequences of post-disaster urban responses. We worked 3-months on-site studying six case studies : Venezuela (landslide), El Salvador (earthquake), Ghana (floods), Indonesia (tsunami), Bangladesh (floods, landslide, cyclones), and Philippines (volcano eruption, earthquake, typhoons).
YES indeed What would ya build on a shakey holiday resort island and where would the money come from
Bringing a new perspective to World Water Day
- Dr. Ir. Jules B. van Lier is a professor at Delft University. The opinions expressed are his own. -
The international observance of World Water Day, this year on March 22, is an initiative that grew out of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. This year’s theme — ‘Clean Water for a Healthy World’ — reflects the fact that population and industrial growth are adding new sources of pollution and increased demand for clean water across the world.
Human and environmental health, drinking and agricultural water supplies for the present and future are at stake, yet water pollution rarely warrants mention as a pressing issue.
It is absolutely right that water quality considerations should be highlighted just as much as water quantity issues going forwards.
However, what is sometimes obscured in this important debate is that, even with a step change in global water treatment efforts, vast amounts of potentially valuable wastewater will continue to be produced for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, in some developing countries some 80 percent of all waste is being discharged completely untreated, because of lack of regulations, resources and control. Globally, it is estimated that 1,500 cubic kilometres of wastewater is produced on an annual basis, whereas the world renewable fresh water reserves amounts to only 40,000 cubic kilometers per year.
Realising that 1 m3 of non-treated wastewater may spoil over 1000 m3 of fresh water for human consumption or other activities, the urgency of the matter is obvious..
Something cool to look at.
http://www.mobleyengineering.com
Beyond Copenhagen: sub-national solutions are now key
- Julian Hunt is visiting professor at Delft University and formerly director general of the UK meteorological office. Charles Kennel is distinguished professor of atmospheric science, emeritus and senior advisor to the sustainability solutions institute, UCSD. The opinions expressed are their own. -
The non-legally binding “deal” agreed at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen among the U.S., China, Brazil, South Africa and India, has brought to a conclusion what has proved an extraordinarily complex set of negotiations.
The outcome has been criticised on numerous grounds and, in U.S. President Barack Obama’s own words, “We have much further to go”.
In effect, the agreement may ultimately amount to no more than a long-term climate change dialogue between Washington and Beijing. While global action to tackle emissions of carbon dioxide must remain a priority, the fact remains that we may be heading towards a future in which no long-term, comprehensive successor to the Kyoto regime is politically possible.
One of the chief flaws in the Copenhagen negotiations was the fact that the overly-ambitious political deals being discussed were not realistic, nor framed to inspire people to act and collaborate with each other across the world on both a local and regional level. Going forwards, national governments will need to be more honest about future likely emissions and also of future temperature changes. In this crucial debate, scientists must be free to state their estimates without political bias.
In the absence of a new global deal, it is now crucial that the centre of gravity of decision-making on how we respond to climate change moves towards the sub-national level. This may also have the effect of re-energising future global climate change talks as environment diplomacy could certainly be furthered by policies decided at the local and regional level.
The need for such a paradigm shift from a “top-down” to a “bottom-up” approach is becoming clearer by the day.
It is a matter of enormous satisfaction to many people that this juggernaut of dubious science, commercial interest and politics has hit a stumbling block. As a scientist and the owner of a scientific software company I have been appalled by the grandiosity of the ‘colleagues’ who have used every dirty trick known to bad science to promote themselves, damage their opponents and pull the wool over the eyes of the public.
The world has gigantic problems which need to be addressed directly: the population explosion, general pollution, the shortage of clean water, grinding poverty, lack of medical care etc. Money needs to be spent on these and not channelled into the pockets of the carbon kleptocrats.
Hear, hear, James Greyson! I enjoyed your point regarding “wet-ware” first. You reminded me of a story Dr. Thomas Hunt Morgan told when he explained why he banned the use of Friden Calculators (early computers) from the Biology Department at Caltech. He said, “Well, I am like a guy who is prospecting for gold along the banks of the Sacramento River in 1849. With a little intelligence, I can reach down and pick up big nuggets of gold. And as long as I can do that, I’m not going to let any people in my department waste scarce resources in placer mining.” System Dynamics seems to be in the same fortunate position today.
Three cheers for System Dynamics indeed!