The Great Debate UK
Latvia: Apocalypse (not quite) now . . .
-Morten Hansen is head of the economics department at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga. The opinions expressed are his own.-
Latvia, with its 18 percent year-on-year economic decline, ruthless budget cuts to meet the demands stated by the IMF-EU bailout package and recurring rumours of devaluation, may be the most written about country in the world right now, at least on a per capita basis.
Yet life goes on here and journalists I speak to seem somewhat disappointed when I cannot confirm sighting starvation or death in the streets…. Admittedly, it is very hard to be optimistic but it was clearly a positive sign when the parliament approved yet another round of budget cuts including across-the-board 20 percent wage cuts in the public sector and a 10 percent cut in pensions, which should release another tranche of much-needed money from the IMF and the EU. These cuts are tough but necessary as Latvian public finances were unsustainable – even in the years of growth rates of 9, 10, 11 percent the country still ran budget deficits.
Whatever the value of the currency, the public sector needs serious reform, which is why I am somewhat annoyed by the incessant rumours of devaluation emanating from in particular Sweden and the UK. The currency and the public sector are not linked to each other and should be treated as separate issues.
“Green growth” strategy viable for African economy
-Michael Keating is director of the Africa Progress Panel. The opinions expressed are his own.-
After a decade of solid progress Africa is now facing the daunting task – at a time of economic crisis – of maintaining stability, economic growth and employment, addressing food security and combating climate change. No country on the continent is escaping the impact of volatile fuel and commodity prices, the drop in global demand and trade.
from The Great Debate:
Bernanke’s deficit warning helps Obama
-- James Pethokoukis is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own --
Sorry, Larry Summers. It's looking more and more likely that you're going to be stuck in the West Wing for the duration.
See, if your boss fails to reappoint Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman come January, it would be a public betrayal worthy of the television reality show "Survivor." For President Obama has no greater ally: Bernanke is truly the gift that keeps on giving.
The economy: reasons to be miserable
- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own. -
Is the crisis over yet?
In the last 3 months, the Dow and the FTSE have each risen by about 25 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 by a third. House prices appear to be stabilising in the UK. Stress-tested and backed by seemingly unlimited government funding, the banks are lending again (if only to each other), so that 1-month libor is down to only 0.3 percent.
GM: Chapter 11 or bust
- Professor David Bailey works at the Coventry University Business School and has written extensively on globalisation, economic restructuring and industrial policy, with particular reference to the auto industry. The opinions expressed are his own. -
GM declared itself bankrupt on Monday in one of the largest bankruptcies in U.S. history, in an attempt to seek protection from creditors.
Savers must start becoming investors
- David Kuo is director at The Motley Fool. The opinions expressed are his own. -
The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee decided to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent in May. This came as no great surprise given that the Central Bank has already slashed interest rates to a level where further cuts would have made no discernible difference to the cost of money.
from The Great Debate:
The recovery will feel familiar: lousy
-- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --
The good news that the United States cannot keep contracting the way it has been is not to be confused with a return to robust expansion, a point financial markets eventually will grasp.
Consumers, the mainspring of the U.S. economy, will see the cash from government stimulus slip through their fingers but will still face very ugly personal balance sheets and a brutal job market. Their party is not going to get started again for some time.
Germany’s political and economic phoney war
– Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
Germany is becalmed by a political and economic phoney war five months before this year’s most important European general election. But a lack of real economic debate now risks prolonging the political stalemate and delaying much needed reforms.
from The Great Debate:
Don’t rush the Chinese to become big spenders
– Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own –
As the financial crisis forces American consumers to curb their shopping binges, the world starts to realize that China's high savings level has some upsides, marking Chinese consumption as the most resilient in the world.
Beijing has to, however, be careful in how far it goes to encourage domestic spending to help the economy ride the global downturn. Credit-driven booms and consequent busts from the United States to South Korea are pointers to the need for caution.
Apocalypse Now: A return to high borrowing, high taxes and weak growth
–Gerard Lyons is chief economist at Standard Chartered. Any opinions expressed are his own. –
Britain is clearly a Jekyll and Hyde economy. Or that at least is what the Chancellor would like us to believe. The bad news we are now seeing in the economy, public finances and across parts of the financial sector will not last. We are in the Mr Hyde phase. But, don’t worry, we will soon be back to the normal Dr Jekyll soon.
