The Great Debate UK
- David Byrne is a professor at the School of Applied Social Sciences, Durham University. The opinions expressed are his own. -
Reuters’ guest blogger Laurence Copeland omitted two words in his description of Tuesday’s budget – the words being ‘stupid’ and ‘unfair’.
It is stupid first because it is cutting demand – both from the public sector and through multiplier effects across the economy as a whole.
Lord Skidelsky, a Conservative peer, let us remember but also someone who has learned the lessons Keynes taught us, has warned us of the dangers of cutting public sector stimulated demand when the private sector is incapable of responding to a monetary stimulus.
-Ian Ellis is executive chairman of Telereal Trillium. The opinions expressed are his own. Join Reuters for a live discussion with guests as Chancellor George Osborne makes an emergency budget statement at 12:30 p.m. British time on Tuesday, June 22, 2010.-
The government is clear that reducing the public sector budget deficit is top priority and Tuesday’s budget will give us our first real indication of how and where public spending cuts are going to occur.
In its May economic outlook, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development projected upward growth outlooks for BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China — the world’s four largest emerging economies.
Strong growth in those economies is helping to pull other countries out of recession, the OECD said. The Paris-based organisation projects that China’s GDP growth will exceed 11 percent for 2010, and anticipates that India’s real GDP growth will be 8.3 percent. Russia‘s GDP growth is expected to be 5.5 percent, and Brazil‘s is projected at 6.5 percent. By comparison, the OECD projects that the Euro area will see 1.5 percent real GDP growth, while the UK will see a 2.2 percent growth.
-Dave Coplin is national technology officer at Microsoft. Any opinions expressed are his own.-
The British economy may technically be out of recession, but it is still not creating the jobs and growth needed to turn back the clock to the upbeat days of the past. And with a looming fiscal crisis, it’s not hard to see why some commentators are predicting the terminal decline of the British economy. I don’t think the situation for Britain is dire — yet. But if businesses want to regenerate economic engines in the future they do need to change.
-Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -
It really is hard to resist the temptation to take a hopeful view of Britain’s new government.
-David Kuo is director at the financial website The Motley Fool. The opinions expressed are his own.-
You could not make this up if you tried.
Britain gets its knickers in a twist over a hung parliament, Europe has been unceremoniously skewered by a Greek debt crisis, and if that wasn’t bad enough, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee sits idly by as the rate of inflation climbs.
– Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -
“The most exciting race in years”. “It’s going to go down to the line.” “The old order has truly been upset.”
– Ian Campbell is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
A first estimate of UK first-quarter growth is a chilly 0.2 percent. Failure of government policy, the opposition will say. Shows the folly of proposed Conservative spending cuts and tax increases, Gordon Brown, the prime minister, will claim. But a colder financial look will see that enormous stimulus has so far produced the weakest of recoveries. Whatever the election outcome, the UK’s leaders are going to have to be grown-ups. In this emergency, cooperation – or coalition – is required.
- Andrew Wileman is a independent business consultant and writer, most recently writing about cost management in the private and public sectors in “Driving Down Cost” (Brealey Publishing). The opinions expressed are his own. –
“We only need to cut cost because of the credit-crunch crisis.”
No, there is a deep structural problem that was there before the crunch. The public sector has been driving up its share of GDP for decades, in the UK, the U.S. and almost all advanced western economies. Its momentum will be painful to slow down, let alone reverse. This underlying trend was concealed in the nineties and noughties (when the talk was of “the end of big government”) by a debt-bubble-fuelled growth in the private sector. In the UK, we are already over a 50 percent state share of GDP.