The Great Debate UK
from The Great Debate:
By Mohamed A. El-Erian
El-Erian is the CEO of PIMCO. He spent part of his childhood in Egypt where his father was a professor of international law at Cairo University and then served as an Egyptian diplomat and was elected to the International Court of Justice in 1978. The opinions expressed are his own.
While Egyptians are yet to specify the final destination for their revolution -- and only they can, and should do so -- there is little doubt in my mind that the country is now on a new, bold and uncertain road toward greater democracy and individual freedoms. The next few days and weeks will be critical in determining the journey for a country that is central to the stability of the Middle East.
Undoubtedly, domestic political developments hold the key to what will happen. Egyptians need to converge on a common understanding and vision of "managed change". And this vision must satisfy the millions of Egyptians -- from all ages, religions and walks of life -- that unite in Tahrir (Liberation) Square and elsewhere to better influence and improve their destiny.
Yes, street and state politics are the undeniable drivers today. This will involve both upheavals and compromises. Yet economics and finance will also play a crucial role, especially when it comes to the urgent recovery of an economy that has experienced one of the most dramatic "sudden stops" in recent history. In the process, this will also define how Egypt's friends and allies can come off the sidelines and help the country's unprecedented transformation.
Part of the problem trying to figure out what Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood or Tunisia's Ennahda party would do if they got into any future power structure in their countries is knowing what kind of Islamists they are. The label "Islamist" pops up frequently these days, in comments and warnings and (yes) news reports, but the term is so broad that it even covers groups that oppose each other. Just as the Muslim world is not a bloc, the Islamist world is not a bloc.
from Chrystia Freeland:
It has been a bad couple of weeks for what Vitali Silitski, a political scientist, calls the Authoritarian International.
Mr. Silitski is from Belarus — a good background for studying authoritarian rulers — and he is a student of the troubling way in which the world’s autocrats responded to the “color” revolutions in some former Soviet republics a few years ago by increasing repression at home and forming a loose international support group.
Egypt's financial system faces a moment of truth. The country didn't have an economic crisis before the past ten days of protests began. But its banks and stock exchange have been closed for a week. When they reopen, starting on Sunday, the fear is that the political turmoil could prompt a financial meltdown.
The central bank is due to reopen on Sunday, while stock market trading will resume the next day – though that could be delayed if violent clashes continue. So far, markets across the Mid-East region have largely ignored the unrest. Yet before the Egyptian market closed, there were signs that investors were fleeing.
If President Hosni Mubarak bows to the clamor of the street and goes, Egyptians and other Arabs seeking to turn a page on autocratic government may look at Turkey for some clues on marrying Islam and democracy.
-”Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.”-
The peoples of the Middle East are rising up and letting their political views be known. In Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen protestors have taken to the streets to demand political change, and in the case of Tunisia they have succeeded. These tensions between the people and their governments have caught the global media’s attention. It has also set off something of a domino effect with other autocratic regimes in the region worrying that the same could happen to them.
from The Great Debate:
By Alan Elsner, who is the communications director for The Israel Project. The opinions expressed are his own.
The uprising in Egypt that looks like it may sweep away President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year-old regime threatens to deprive Israel of its most important strategic ally in the region.
from Pakistan: Now or Never?:
All countries are unique and comparing two of the world's most populous Muslim countries, Egypt and Pakistan, is as risky as comparing Britain to France at the time of the French Revolution. But many of the challenges likely to confront Egypt as it emerges from the mass protests against the 30-year-rule of President Hosni Mubarak are similar to those Pakistan has faced in the past, and provide at least a guide on what questions need to be addressed. In Pakistan, they are often summarised as the three A's -- Army, Allah and America.
Both have powerful armies which are seen as the backbone of the country; both have to work out how to accommodate political Islam with democracy, both are allies of America, yet with people who resent American power in propping up unpopular elites.
from Felix Salmon:
Davos, in 2011, was the year when the cynics were finally proven wrong. Long derided as a sybaritic alpine gabfest, the World Economic Forum astonished the world with what it was capable of this year, deftly leveraging the talk around its chosen theme -- "shared norms for the new reality" -- into an effective and timely intervention in Egypt. The Forum's slogan -- "committed to improving the state of the world" -- became reality, as the actions of a small and powerful few atop a distant Swiss alp managed to give shape and direction to what would otherwise have remained inchoate and dangerous demonstrations in the volatile North African hotspot.
Certainly the Forum had a lot to work with -- it has long been looking long and hard at global risks including political instability in undemocratic countries as well as the demographics of North Africa and the Middle East; the adverse effects of high unemployment among both educated and uneducated youth; the game-changing aspects in autocratic regimes of the rapid spread of information over cellphones, the internet, and satellite TV; and countless other issues of direct relevance to Egypt.
from The Great Debate:
Philip N. Howard, recent author of "The Digital Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy: Information Technology and Political Islam," who is an associate professor at the University of Washington, where he directs the Project on Information Technology and Political Islam. The opinions expressed are his own.
It's time for the State Department to stop backing individual leaders in the Middle East. Instead, the State Department needs to back networks.