The Great Debate UK

from Global Investing:

What fund managers think

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch's monthly poll of around 200 fund managers had a few nuggets in the June version, aside from the usual mood-taking.

Gold is too expensive.  A net 27 percent of respondent thought it overvalued, up from 13 percent in May. Then again, the respondents to this poll have reckoned gold is too pricey since September 2009.

The fall in the euro should be tailing off. A net 14 percent reckon the single currency is still overvalued, but that is way down from the net 45 percent who thought so in the May poll.

BP is good for pharma. The net percentage of fund managers who remain overweight in energy stocks plunged to 7 percent in June from 37 percent in May as oil has continued to spill into the Gulf of Mexico.  The stock beneficiaries have been "dividend friendly" utilities, telecoms and pharmaceuticals.

False dawn or risk recovery?

-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

What began at the start of the year with an acknowledgement from Greece that it had been living way beyond its means soon turned into a more universal re-appraisal of the risks of sovereign default.

The EU and the hedge funds: the vendetta goes on

You might have thought that, with the Eurozone in turmoil, the EU would have its hands too full to pursue its vendetta against hedge funds.

Far from it, the latest proposals are even more wide-ranging than most observers anticipated, involving the establishment of a Europe-wide regulatory authority with the power (presumably) to dictate to the FSA how to police the UK financial sector, restricting the ability of hedge-funds based outside Europe to sell inside Europe and making it hard for European investors to invest in the rest of the world’s so-called alternative investment vehicles.

Sovereign default risk, fact or fiction?

-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

If a gauge is needed to measure how concerned investors are at about sovereign default risk, we need look no further than the price of gold which has made fresh all time highs this week.

German elections bring forward a possible stalemate situation for EMU

-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

Next month’s UK general election is not the only one of significance in Europe. There is the possibility that the German regional elections in North Rhine-Westphalia on May 9 could result in the end of the CDU/FDP government’s majority in the upper house of parliament.

Subject of Europe set to trip Liberal Democrat Nick Clegg

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Jane Foley- Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own. -

Over the past week the British electorate has taken a shine to Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.

from MacroScope:

Brit shock horror: euro to survive

Euro brezinys_EC1

Britons have never really got the euro zone. "Its not really going to happen, is it?" was a typical question from a City analyst to Reuters back in the mid-90s. The political drive behind the creation of the monetary union was beyond many in eurosceptic Britain.

So the results of a straw poll at an event sponsored by independent City advisers Lombard Street Research were somewhat suprising.  A hundred or so mainly British investors were asked whether the euro would be around in five years with its current membership. Response was about 80 percent saying yes to 20 percent saying no.

from The Great Debate:

Embrace reality, not fight speculation

Stock up on canned goods, the authorities appear to be opening a new front in the War Against Speculation; this time taking aim at the people who might profit from Greece and its European partners' woes.

Just days after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission voted new limits on short selling, Germany is investigating the credit default swap trading of speculators to try to prevent them from profiting from any bailout of Greece.

An alternative view of the crisis in Greece

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Mark Bolsom1-150x150.jpg-Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own.-

Greece has been dominating the headlines lately with many commentators heavily criticising its burgeoning deficits and perceived threat to eurozone stability. But is such heavy criticism really justified, or are the Greeks simply being made scapegoats for systematic failings? After all, Greece did not cause the current financial crisis, but is instead one of the major victims.

Is a queue forming at the EU’s fiscal soup kitchen?

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copelandl- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

Back in the prehistory of the euro zone, I wrote an article in the Times trying to work out how the game currently being played out in Europe would end.

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