The Great Debate UK
By Kathleen Brooks. The opinions expressed are her own.
The markets always suffer from a chronic case of short-termism, but once a sovereign debt crisis takes hold it is very difficult to reverse. Investors may be concentrating on Greek, Irish and Portuguese funding needs for the next 24- 36 months now, but it won’t be long before investors start to scrutinise longer-term liabilities that are currently being clocked up for the next 10,20 even 30 years.
The bigger beast that threatens Europe’s solvency is the demographic and entitlements crisis. While a lot is known about Europe’s aging population, the scale of the problem and its urgency are not well understood.
The IMF predicts that Greece will have the second highest growth in pension costs as a percentage of GDP in the G20 by 2030. Spain and Belgium aren’t in great shape either. Interestingly, by 2030 Italy and Germany will actually see their pensions’ costs start to fall, but that is because their populations are aging so fast that the bulk of their pension spending will be done in the next 10-15 years.
It seems barely a week goes by without another shock report about the ever-widening gap between those at the top of the earnings distribution and the rest of us. The facts are by now well-established. Throughout the Western world, but most noticeably in Britain and America, the earnings of the top one or two percent are accelerating into the stratosphere, leaving the middle class a long way behind, and the working class completely out of sight. How can one explain this global phenomenon?
Academic economics seems to be taking a surprisingly long time to reach a definitive answer, but I suspect there will turn out to be two long term trends at work here.
-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-
The saying goes that you only really know who your friends are during times of crisis. Well European officials must have been beaming after two of the world’s largest economies promised to purchase the debt of the currency bloc’s most troubled nations. China came out first and pledged to “support Spain’s financial sector”, through participating in its upcoming debt auctions. Likewise, Japan pledged to purchase a quarter of the upcoming euro zone bond sale that will help fund the bailout of Ireland.
By Peter Thal Larsen and Neil Unmack
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.
LONDON -- Forcing banks to bail out countries may have the ring of poetic justice. But Europe's idea of using a bank levy to capitalise a sovereign crisis fund is circular -- and dangerous.
– John Keilthy is Managing Partner of ReputationInc Ireland and is a former business journalist and director and chief operating officer of NCB Group. Andrew Hammond is a Director in ReputationInc’s London office and was formerly a UK Government Special Adviser. The opinions expressed are their own. –
In recent weeks, the focus for Ireland and indeed the world’s financial markets has been on devising a plan to remedy the country’s precarious banking and fiscal affairs.
(Photo: Pope Benedict XVI blesses a nativity scene at the Vatican December 15, 2010/Tony Gentile)
Pope Benedict voiced the Catholic Church's deep concern over "hostility and prejudice" against Christianity in Europe on Thursday, saying creeping secularism was just as bad as religious fanaticism. In the message for the Roman Catholic Church's World Day of Peace, marked on Jan. 1, he also reiterated recent condemnations of lack of religious freedom in countries in the Middle East where Christians are a minority, such as Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
He said Christians were the most persecuted religious group in the world and that it was "unacceptable" that in some places they had to risk their lives to practise their faith. But he reserved his strongest words for Europe, where the Church says it is under assault by some national governments and European institutions over issues such as gay marriage, abortion and the use of Christian religious symbols in public places.
The following is a guest contribution. Reuters is not responsible for the content and the views expressed are the authors’ alone. Ibrahim Kalin is senior advisor to Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan. This article first appeared in Today's Zaman in Istanbul and is reprinted with its permission.
By Ibrahim Kalin
Has multiculturalism run its course in Europe? If one takes a picture of certain European countries today and freezes it, that would be the logical conclusion.
Joschka Fischer was never one to mince words when he was Germany's foreign minister in the late '90s and early noughts. So it is not overly surprising that he has painted a picture in a new post of a world with only two powers -- the United States and China -- and an ineffective and divided Europe on the sidelines.
More controversial, however, is his view that China will not only grow into the world's most important market over the coming years, but will determine what the world produces and consumes -- and that that will be green.
from The Great Debate:
How do you reconcile the traditions of many Muslim immigrants with the freedoms and values of 21st century Western Europe?
It's a question that has led to periodic outbursts of vigorous debate from France to Holland and Switzerland. In Germany, the discussion has been relatively subdued. Until now.
Europe's corporate treasurers can pop open the champagne. After much lobbying, they have won an exemption from new European Commission rules forcing over-the-counter derivative trades to be centrally cleared. But the decision could create a loophole that allows companies to take on big positions and pose a systemic threat.
The G20 group of leading nations last year agreed that all derivative trades should, where possible, be moved onto clearing houses. The thinking was that central clearing spreads risk, reducing the chance that the failure of a single large counterparty can drag down the financial system.