The Great Debate UK

Predicting the economic effects of swine flu

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dm1- Marie Diron is senior economist at Oxford Economics. The opinions expressed are her own -

A swine flu pandemic would affect the economy via various channels involving supply and demand.

On the supply side, infection and death imply that employees would be unable to go to work. This is what most people think about when they think about swine flu’s economic costs.

But the demand channels are likely much more powerful. Fear of infection would keep people away from airports, train stations, restaurants, cinemas and shopping centres. This would imply cuts in travel and tourism and consumer spending.

Bats and balls the key to economic bounce

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simon_chadwick-Simon Chadwick is the Director of the Centre for the International Business of Sport at Coventry University, and runs the blog ‘Daily Sport Thought’ in which he addresses many of the important challenges currently facing sport. The opinions expressed are his own.-

I love sport, I have always loved sport, and I make my living researching, writing and talking about sport. As such, I do not need to be convinced about the social, cultural, psychological and health benefits associated with our engagement in sport. I also do not need any convincing about the economic benefits of sport, although some people will always and inevitably exclaim, “he would say that wouldn’t he!”

A reality check from Standard & Poor’s

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REUTERS– Neil Collins is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –

Standard & Poor’s could have chosen a better day to kick the British economy, by placing the UK onto “negative outlook”, the usual precursor to a downgrade of S&P’s rating of an issuer’s debt.

China economic forecasts: go herbal or Western?

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(Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own)

Which would you believe when it comes to diagnosing the health of China’s economy — the pulse-taking of the herbal doctor or the lab tests of Western medicine?

Beijing’s leaders are like the herbal doctors, using creative metrics such as power output and shipping indexes that can give a relatively accurate snapshot of manufacturing activity.

Don’t scapegoat the Germans for crisis

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paul-taylor– Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

A revisionist theory on the causes of the global financial crisis blames surplus countries like China, Japan and Germany as much as highly-leveraged, deregulated finance in the United States and Britain.

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