The Great Debate UK
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
David Cameron crowed when UK opposition leader Ed Miliband forgot the deficit in a keynote speech last week. Yet Britain’s prime minister has now taken deficit amnesia to a new level, insisting on the need to tackle the country’s biggest problem while simultaneously pledging a tax giveaway. It’s an electoral bribe he can’t afford.
The blatant politicking is deeply unhelpful given the awful state of the UK finances. Cameron has made eliminating the deficit his chief goal. That means being tough on spending, and on taxation.
His pre-election promise of a rise in the threshold for paying income tax from 10,000 pounds ($16,200) to 12,500 pounds offers welcome support to the low paid. But the proposed increase in the threshold for the 40 per cent rate, from 41,900 pounds to 50,000 pounds, makes no economic sense. It does, however, make political sense. It appeals to one of the core constituencies of Cameron’s Conservative Party, middle-class voters who resent seeing more of their earnings slip into the higher-rate tax band.
A central pillar of George Osborne’s 2014 budget was the announcement that pensioners will no longer have to buy an annuity upon retirement and that they would have more control of their pensions pots, including the freedom to withdraw cash without incurring penalty tax changes.
This is a true blue move that has Conservative values right at its heart – giving retirees the right to do what they want with their money. While in most instances being freed from the shackles of government is something to be celebrated, in this instance a little government paternalism can be a good thing.
Confidence up. Inflation down. Exports up. Unemployment down. Growth forecasts up. With this backdrop it must have been difficult for George Osborne to draw up his fifth Budget. But what we have ended up with is a Budget for blue rinsers rather than businesses. He obviously thinks that everything is heading in the right direction with the economy and exports so there is no need to do much, despite all the supportive rhetoric around helping businesses.
–Dr Richard Wellings is Deputy Editorial Director at the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own.–
History is unlikely to be kind to George Osborne. Four years after he became chancellor, the national debt has exploded, the budget deficit remains at dangerously high levels, and an increasing share of tax revenues must be devoted to repaying creditors.
With the next general election just over a year away, it is likely Chancellor George Osborne will want to keep his powder dry and hold back any vote winning announcements for the Conservative Party manifesto or for the election campaign itself. That said, there are pressures from both the UK public (especially those experiencing the continued squeeze on household incomes) and businesses that are continuing to experience the effects of the recession. With this in mind, I have set out below what I think could happen on Wednesday, and some of the measures I’d like to see introduced.
The headlines generated by the forthcoming UK budget are likely to be political rather than economic; the general election is next year. Despite a faster than expected fall in unemployment and inflation, macroeconomic developments since the December autumn statement present limited scope for forecast revisions to government borrowing. But come the post-budget analysis, some of the seemingly esoteric revised economic assumptions may have important consequences for how the budget is perceived politically.
Those expecting a rivetingly exciting spectacle when the chancellor announces his budget next Wednesday will be in for disappointment, but that doesn’t mean that this won’t be an intensely political budget, given this really represents his last chance to make changes which will be fully appreciated by the electorate by the next general election. Having said this, his room for manoeuvre is limited, and the effect on the overall fiscal balance will be minimal.
–Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.–
Spring has sprung.
The grass has riz.
I wonder when the Budget is….
On 19th March actually or, more importantly in this age of nonstop campaigning, six weeks before the European elections and barely a year away from the general election. Since the 2015 Budget will be too late to affect our wallets before we go to the polls, this is George Osborne’s last chance to reassure us that the economic situation is under control. Will he be able to resist the temptation to give us a reward for our patience through four years of austerity and to reassure us that the misery is nearly over?
from The Great Debate:
Following the international financial crisis of the late 2000s, the world’s financial leaders have been working towards a standardized banking system that will strengthen banks at an individual level, and thus improve the banking sector’s ability to survive stress when it occurs.
In 2010 the Basel Committee produced a third accord outlining a set of regulations, with the goal of solving the banking system's ongoing problems. Since then the conversation has yet to cease over whether enough has been done, since the peak of the crisis in 2008, to ensure a stable financial environment that supports growth on an international scale.
–Darren Williams is Senior European Economist at AllianceBernstein. The opinions expressed are his own.–
The Bank of England appears to have moved the goalposts. After 30 years of focusing almost exclusively on inflation, monetary policy is now being more explicitly directed toward generating faster growth and lower unemployment.