The Great Debate UK
Interest rate decision day: no news is bad news
-Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own.-
Whether their problem is narcotics or alcohol or simply junk food, addicts are usually planning to give up… but not yet. In the meantime, there are always plenty of excuses for delay.
And so it is for the Bank of England. The inflation rate will soon be double the 2% target, but they still judge it is too soon to raise rates above their current all-time low level. Moreover, yesterday’s announcement makes clear there is no end in sight for the gilt buying spree (the “Asset Purchase Programme”).
The Bank’s masterly inactivity is predicated on the MPC assumption that there is still plenty of slack to be taken up in the real economy. As I said here earlier this week, I am less convinced about the extent of the spare capacity in the UK economy today than they are, and hence I see far greater danger of further inflation than the Bank apparently does.
UK chancellor has mixed message for gilt investors
– Ian Campbell is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
The UK sounds Greek again. Britain’s new government is finding skeletons in the fiscal cupboard. George Osborne, the incoming chancellor of the exchequer, is appointing an independent watchdog to check the numbers out. The gilt market perhaps ought to recoil at the revelation that things are even worse than thought. But it’s more likely to look on the bright side: coalition honeymoon, transparency and rectitude to come.
UK government bonds will for now probably continue defying threats that kill in the Aegean. A record peacetime deficit, an inflation rate of 3.4 percent, a plunging pound: no matter, UK 10-year paper has risen in value by about 2 percent this year and yields a miserly 3.8 percent. But while Osborne’s deficit-cutting commitment will reassure, the medium-term risks to gilts remain great.
Gilts’ appeal is largely relative. UK debt levels have worsened appallingly — but are not yet appalling. Britain, like the United States, is rightly judged to have a more adaptable economy than the euro zone’s. The pound can weaken, helping competitiveness and growth and therefore favouring rebalancing of the government’s accounts.
But the growth that can save is not strongly in evidence now. Mervyn King, the Bank of England governor, has warned of possible growth disappointment as fiscal cuts kick in. Ironically this is another factor supporting gilts. Inflation is up, but is expected to be dragged down by economic weakness. That means interest rates will probably remain low, favouring bonds.
Still, gilts investors cannot be complacent. The fiscal deficit is huge but money-printing — quantitative easing — exceeded it in the year to March. Spencer Dale, the BoE’s chief economist, speculated last week that QE had taken about one percentage point off gilt yields. Unless the economy worsens, the BoE is unlikely to resume gilt purchases. And one day it must start selling its gilt mountain.
There are other big risks. The coalition honeymooners may fall out. The economic turnaround will be extremely hard to generate. And Osborne’s fiscal surgery may half kill the patient. For a UK that has much to do to stop its debt spiralling, gilt returns look poor. But the remarkable bonds may smile through the honeymoon all the same.
Eerie calm before Britain’s election
– James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
To look at sterling and gilts, you would hardly know that Britain is sailing into a general election which will likely deliver a weaker government with a diminished ability, if not will, to grapple with high debts, an uncertain role in the global economy and an aging population.
Are the markets right to fear a hung parliament?
-David Kuo is director at The Motley Fool. The opinions expressed are his own -
There is a well-trodden saying that markets hate uncertainty. Elections are inevitably uncertain, so until the votes in the next election are counted we cannot be certain which party will govern the UK.
Currently, there are suggestions that no single party may get sufficient votes to form the next government outright. It is true that the Conservatives have a strong lead over its rivals. However, with a first-past-the post voting system, it only takes a small swing away from the Conservatives to change the complexion of the next parliament.
from Commentaries:
The case for GDP bonds
Around the world, governments are struggling to drum up buyers for the mountain of bonds they need to sell. And that's especially true for big deficit, low savings countries like Britain and the United States.
The returns they are offering on conventional government bonds are low and there's the risk of inflation eating away at their value. Perhaps it is time for a different approach.
Hike in interest rates a step closer
- Edward Menashy is chief economist at Charles Stanley. The opinions expressed are his own. -
The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England has kept its key lending rate at a record low of 0.5 percent, last reduced in March 2009 when it indicated that conventional policy had reached its limit and unorthodox measures such as quantitative easing were to be used.
The plight of middle-aged investors
- David Kuo is director at The Motley Fool. The opinions expressed are his own. -
What is the one thing that young investors have but older investors would give their eye teeth?
Middle-age investment challenge
- Stephen Peters is an investment trust analyst at Charles Stanley, covering all closed-ended investment trusts and companies. The opinions expressed are his own. -
With between 5-25 years to go before one retires, the “middle aged” are in a conundrum at the current point in time. Having seen the value of their assets decline sharply in recent years, dreams of an early end to one’s working life have been put on the back burner for a little while.
Equities may now be a better bet
- Edward Menashy is chief economist at Charles Stanley. The opinions expressed are his own. -
Not exactly shock and awe as the MPC keeps base rates on hold at 0.5 percent while the most recent financial surveys have been unanimous in expecting a no change decision for some time now. It was always going to be an MPC meeting to discuss whether or not to persevere with quantitative easing. The difficulty for the MPC is that it is too early to judge the effectiveness of the quantitative easing. Clearly the Bank of England would prefer to wait at least until it publishes new quarterly growth and inflation forecasts to explain how it wishes to proceed.
Part-paid gilts should return
– Neil Collins is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) – The UK Government needs to raise four billion pounds a week, every week, in the financial year to next April, to bridge the gap between its tax income and its spending.
