The Great Debate UK

from Breakingviews:

Greek rescue bizarrely increases its debts

By Hugo Dixon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Listen to the politicians and one might think that Greece’s debts will fall as a result of last week’s provisional rescue by euro zone leaders and private-sector creditors. In fact, they go up. Athens’ borrowings will increase by 31 billion euros under the rescue scheme, according to an analysis by Reuters Breakingviews. This increase, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, will push the country’s estimated peak debt/GDP ratio next year to 179 percent.

This bizarre result comes because of the way the different elements of the fearfully complex rescue plan interact. Greece will need to borrow extra funds to enhance the creditworthiness of the new bonds it will provide the private sector. It will also need to inject capital into its own banks. These extra borrowings amount to 55 billion euros and will more than outweigh the reduction in Greece’s debts that comes as a result of haircuts to be agreed by private-sector creditors and a planned buyback of debt at a discount to its face value.

The Breakingviews analysis is at variance with comments made by Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s president. He said after the July 21 summit of euro zone leaders that Greece’s debts would fall by 24 percentage points of GDP.  This was because he ignored the costs of "credit enhancement" and bank recapitalisation. He also included in the debt reduction 12 percentage points of GDP coming from the fact that Athens will be paying low interest rates on its official loans. While this will definitely improve the country's debt sustainability, the benefit (under Sarkozy's maths) will be spread over 10 years.

Greece deal is a compromise and, once again, the banks have won

Photo

By Laurence Copeland. The opinions expressed are his own.

Whenever I see photos of Chancellor Merkel these days, I’m reminded of the lugubrious features of the creature in the Restaurant at the End of the World, as it recommended to guests which part of its own anatomy they should eat. The details of the “Deal to Save the Euro” are still mysterious and have been given a misleading spin in the official releases, but one or two points seem clear.

First, the package is a compromise – a little bit of default (as required by a reality check) plus assistance to Greece which looks very generous but is still not enough to give it a realistic chance of paying its remaining debts. So the can has been kicked further down the same road yet again.

from Breakingviews:

The way to end the Greek farce

By Hugo Dixon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Greek crisis is fast descending into farce. The position of Germany, the euro zone’s main lender, is increasingly absurd. It is adamant that there will be no restructuring of Greek debt -- at least, until 2013. And yet it is equally insistent that Athens' private-sector creditors should contribute up to 30 billion euros to a new, 120 billion euro bailout. That would effectively amount to a half-cocked restructuring.

Another day, another crisis

By Laurence Copeland. The opinions expressed are his own.

Here we go again – the same sickening feeling, as stock markets reel amid a flight to “safety”. For months, there have been worries about contagion from the Greek imbroglio, and now the nightmare seems to be coming true, as one after another the weak European economies are put to the sword.

First came Greece and Ireland, then Portugal, now it’s the big league – Spain and, even bigger, Italy (and don’t forget Belgium, an accident waiting to happen for many years now, not very important in pure economic terms, but psychologically significant as the home of the whole sorry euro disaster).

Europe’s bigger crisis waiting to happen

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By Kathleen Brooks. The opinions expressed are her own.

So it looks like Greece has staved off default for another few months at least. Investors are breathing a sigh of relief and buying up risky assets like the world is a rosy place again.

The markets always suffer from a chronic case of short-termism, but once a sovereign debt crisis takes hold it is very difficult to reverse. Investors may be concentrating on Greek, Irish and Portuguese funding needs for the next 24- 36 months now, but it won’t be long before investors start to scrutinise longer-term liabilities that are currently being clocked up for the next 10,20 even 30 years.

from James Saft:

If Greece quacks like a default …

James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The proposed bailout of Greece probably can't escape the scarlet D of default, at least if the ratings agencies follow their own guidelines.

Even if the deal goes through, it is insufficient to solve Greece's debt problems, only buying time for those involved to work out how best to engineer a transfer of bank losses to taxpayers.

from Breakingviews:

Letter to the Greeks

By Hugo Dixon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Dear Greeks,
The anger you feel about your plight is understandable. You are staring at several unpalatable alternatives, all of which will involve big cuts in living standards for years to come. But the options you face are not all equally bad. You must avoid an emotional reaction that leaves you in an even worse state -- and you must ostracise those who resort to violence.

from Breakingviews:

Greek Plan B needs two elements

By Hugo Dixon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

LONDON -- The European Union is finally working on a plan B in the unlikely case that Greece’s parliament votes against austerity later this week. The priority in such a plan should be swift action by the European Central Bank to protect the rest of Europe’s banking system from mayhem. The EU should also try to give Athens a second chance to reflect on its folly.

Could Italy go the way of Greece?

Italy has hogged the headlines in recent weeks mostly for political reasons rather than financial ones. But in a few months we may be concentrating on its fiscal woes and unsustainable debt burden.

Last week credit rating agency Moody’s announced it was putting Italy on review for a possible downgrade to its Aa2 credit rating. These reviews typically last three months or so, and although a downgrade would still leave Italy at the higher end of investment grade, it is not good news to be sliding down the scale, especially when a sovereign debt crisis is raging further along the Mediterranean coast.

Units and unities: can currency change really resolve the Greek tragedy?

As the Greek tragedy goes into what looks like its final act, there is increasing talk of the country leaving the euro zone and refloating the drachma. Perhaps the Athens street mobs favour this “solution”, but what would it involve, and would it work?

It is a bizarre situation, without precedent as far as I am aware (though I am no economic historian). Usually, new currencies are introduced to replace old ones which have become discredited (typically after hyperinflation), whereas here we are talking about the absolute opposite: abandoning the euro because it is too strong, in favour of a new drachma, which will be a weak currency by design – rather like launching a ship, in the hope it will sink!

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