The Great Debate UK

Equities may now be a better bet

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menashysmall2- Edward Menashy is chief economist at Charles Stanley. The opinions expressed are his own. -

Not exactly shock and awe as the MPC keeps base rates on hold at 0.5 percent while the most recent financial surveys have been unanimous in expecting a no change decision for some time now. It was always going to be an MPC meeting to discuss whether or not to persevere with quantitative easing. The difficulty for the MPC is that it is too early to judge the effectiveness of the quantitative easing. Clearly the Bank of England would prefer to wait at least until it publishes new quarterly growth and inflation forecasts to explain how it wishes to proceed.

Observers, who have questioned the success of the Bank’s tactics, point to the fact that much of the easing has been leaking to overseas investors, hedge funds and investment banks.

Furthermore, pension funds which the bank had hoped would be the biggest recipients of newly created money received far less than expected. Other observers note an opportunity of making a profit by buying Government debt from the Debt Management Office (DMO) before selling it on to the Bank and that it may not be advisable to create additional liquidity that would feed through into an already strong equity market rally and create yet another bubble.

EU funds regulation hits the wrong target

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REUTERS– Margaret Doyle is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own –

If generals have a habit of fighting the last war, regulators are prone to fighting the war that they think they ought to have fought.

from The Great Debate:

Beware Goldman’s “dutiful” TARP repayment

(Republished to clarify time period of data in fifth paragraph)

Trading specialists work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange trading shares of Goldman Sachs, in New York, April 14, 2009. REUTERS/Chip East Patriotism, as Dr Johnson once observed, is the last refuge of a scoundrel. So when you hear words like "duty" drip from the lips of a senior executive at Goldman Sachs, you instinctively count the spoons.

You'd be right to do so too. Chief financial officer David Viniar's observation that Goldman has a duty to repay the money it received last autumn from the U.S. government as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program may be marginally less cynical than the apercu flung out recently by his boss, Lloyd Blankfein, that investment bankers should be paid less and shouldn't be rewarded for failure.

from The Great Debate:

New rules won’t end London’s golden lure

-- Alexander Smith is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

alex-smithNew regulations may be cooked up to curb the excesses of its bankers but London will always attract those who believe its streets are paved with gold.

Some predict that the financial crisis spells the end for London as a major global financial centre, arguing it has thrived on lax regulation and a quasi-tax haven status and that the regulatory backlash which inevitably follows such a catastrophic economic debacle will suffocate the innovation and the financial incentives which have driven the growth of services in the British capital.

from The Great Debate:

Goodbye bonuses, hello hedge funds

James Saft Great Debate -- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

The argument about bank bonus payments is as sterile as it is backward looking; compensation at government insured institutions is going nowhere but down.

The real action will be at those places like hedge funds, private equity houses and boutiques, which will try and trade less insurance for more autonomy and which will capture more market share, take on more risk and offer more reward. The question is how will they be regulated, how will they fund themselves and how will the rest of us be protected from the systemic risk they could easily represent.

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