The Great Debate UK

from Breakingviews:

London real estate at an inflection point

By George Hay

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Most real estate valuers in London think property prices in the UK capital are about to fall. That prediction has been easy to make and easier to get wrong in the last five years. This time, the evidence that global investors’ favourite housing market has peaked is looking credible.

House prices in London as a whole are still rising on a monthly and annual basis, and are 20 percent more expensive than a year ago, according to the Office for National Statistics. But there is stasis in the process upstream. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ latest monthly survey shows a sharp dip in those wanting to buy in London, and an even sharper jump in those keen to sell.

Monthly sales volumes are off 17 percent in Greater London since December, says the Land Registry. A small majority of RICS’ members now expect values in the city to fall in sympathy.

Britain’s 8 million renters are a key electoral battleground

–Stephen Evans is a former Senior Policy Advisor for HM Treasury and Director of Employment and Skills at Working Links. The opinions expressed are his own.–

Estate agents boards are lined up outside houses in south London June 3, 2014. REUTERS/Andrew WinningEstate agents boards are lined up outside houses in south London June 3, 2014. REUTERS/Andrew WinningAsking prices for London houses have risen by £80,000 since the start of 2014 according to Rightmove. A three-bedroom house in London increases in value more each day than the average Londoner earns, a sobering thought on your daily commute. These are just the latest startling figures on house prices, particularly in London and the South East, prompting concern from Mark Carney and all three major political parties.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

When illogical policy seems to work

It’s cynical, manipulative and hypocritical – and it looks like it is going to work. How often do you hear a sentence like this, to describe a government initiative or economic policy?  Not often enough.

The media and a surprisingly high proportion of business leaders, financiers and economic analysts seem to believe that policies which are dishonest, intellectually inconsistent or obviously self-interested in their motivation are ipso facto doomed to fail or to damage the public interest. But this is manifestly untrue. The effectiveness of public policies and their ultimate desirability is in practice judged not by their motivations, but by their results.

from Reuters Investigates:

China’s rebalancing act puts consumer to the fore

consumerWal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, now has 189 stories in China, according to its website. Soon it will have many more.  The U.S. chain has announced plans to open a series of "compact hypermarkets", using a bare-bones model developed in Latin America, the Financial Times said.

Wal-Mart stores are a bit different than the one's you might find in, say, Little Rock Arkansas. They sell live toads and turtles for one thing, The Economist reported. But they also sell the appliances, gadgets, and housewares that Wal-Mart stores merchandise everywhere.

Crisis, what crisis?

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– The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –

 Crisis, what crisis? That could be motto for the election manifestos published by Britain’s main political parties this week. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives addressed the country’s fiscal crisis head-on.

The UK should not waste its fiscal crisis

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hugodixon–  The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own  –

 The UK should not waste its fiscal crisis. As Britain embarks on its election campaign, this is a perfect opportunity to engage in radical tax and spending reforms designed not just to restore the country’s fiscal balance but to boost its long-term productivity and competitiveness.

from The Great Debate:

Welcome to the Teenies, sorry about those returns

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-James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own-

As we say goodbye to a decade so abysmal it never even earned a nickname, it is time to take bets on how the coming 10 years will shape up in economics and financial markets.

Welcome, then, to the Teenies, a word that will describe the decade as well as the small returns in financial markets and the shrinking financial sector it will bring.

from The Great Debate:

An emerging opportunity in U.S. housing

James Saft Great Debate -- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

Deep breath. Ok, here goes: For the first time in a very long time U.S. housing might actually be a reasonable buy on a five-year view.

As a long-time housing bear and someone who believes there is still considerable pain to come in the U.S. economy and banking system that is quite a hard thing to say.

from The Great Debate:

Let housing find its clearing price

James Saft Great Debate -- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

The U.S. government should just get out of the way and allow the crash in U.S. housing; the market is too big, has too far to fall and Americans' finances are too strained.

President Barack Obama's measures, unveiled on Wednesday, are part of a $275 billion plan to try and stabilize the housing market and prevent foreclosures. It aims to encourage lenders and their agents to cut repayments for homeowners in difficulties to lower, more affordable levels as well as other steps.

from UK News:

Housing market: what is your prediction?

One thing looks to be sure this year - the housing market has further to fall. Some of the gloomiest predictions are for a further 20 percent slump before a recovery may set in.

Our own Reuters poll of 37 analysts at UK banks, published today, predicts that prices are likely to drop by about 11 percent this year and that it will take until 2010 before it gets better.

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