The Great Debate UK

Why volcanoes are likely to continue to cause chaos in Europe

By Dr Andy Hooper. The opinions expressed are his own.

Within the space of just over a year, aircraft have now been grounded in Europe twice by ash blowing in from Iceland.  This has caused many millions of pounds of disruption.

A key question uppermost in many minds is whether the frequency of eruptions in Iceland is increasing. The short answer here is ‘yes, probably’. But, it is not just the frequency of eruptions that matters.  To impact the airspace of the United Kingdom and continental Europe, the ash has to be ejected high enough, and be fine enough that it can remain airborne for days.  Then the winds have to conspire to push it towards Europe, and the winds blow over Iceland from the north only a small fraction of the time.

Studies by researchers at the University of Iceland have noted that the frequency of eruptions from volcanoes beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap (including Grímsvötn, which erupted in May this year) seems to wax and wane with a cycle of about 140 years.

Prior to the 1980s, there were no such eruptions from these volcanoes for over 40 years and there have now been four within 15 years.  The reason for the apparent cyclicity is not established but, in any case, we appear very likely to have entered a phase of more eruptions.

The volcanoes beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap are not, of course, the only ones in Iceland — Eyjafjallajökull, for instance, which erupted last year, is not covered by the Vatnajökull ice cap — and the same patterns may not apply elsewhere.  However, perhaps more importantly than the number of eruptions, the University of Iceland study also noted that the intensity of eruptions increases in times of high activity, meaning that the height of the ash, and therefore the chances of it reaching Europe, also increases.

Perhaps of even greater concern is that the major fissure eruptions have also occurred during periods of high volcanic activity, although with only two of these within the last 800 years, this could be coincidence.  Here the concern is not so much for air traffic, but for something far worse.

from Business Traveller:

The right type of travel writing?

Travel writer and newspaper columnist A.A. Gill told listeners of BBC Radio 4’s Excess Baggage programme last week that he doesn’t do research, doesn’t take notes and considers himself a rather superficial traveller, a tripper.

Whatever his methods, not many writers can so succinctly drill down into a destination simply using well-honed observational skills. Gill seems to know by osmosis who best to chat with while dashing around a destination – and somehow plans his visit at a particularly prescient moment in time.

Readers who seek politically correct armchair travels, where all the colours and customs of the far-flung world are greeted with wide-eyed awe may not enjoy Gill – he is acerbically provocative, occasionally chauvinistic, has kept the Press Complaints Commission consistently busy and caused a minor diplomatic incident with the Isle of Man in 2006 after deriding its citizens in a Sunday Times column.

While those on the receiving end of his compound-adjective-heavy wit might call it bigotry, his fans – and they are many – would not hold his writing in such high regard were his take-no-prisoners commentary not punctuated with thoughts and ideas pulsating with wisdom.

Gill’s just-released collection, AA Gill: Is Further Away is split between “Near” and “Far”. The former veers from War-of-the-Roses battleground Towton in Yorkshire, to a Nelson Mandela birthday function at a London InterContinental Hotel where Gill finds fault with “the napkinned trestles of inhospitable hospitality”.

There is also the metaphorically “Near”, where less caustic chapters deal with the author’s severe dyslexia and adventures in fatherhood. “Far” journeys from Bombay to Haiti via – in my view – the richest chapters, on Dubai, Madagascar, Albania and Iceland.

In a foreword, Gill disputes the idea of the world having reached its “found-by date”. He revels in the fact that though most of it has been excessively explored, the world is more accessible than it’s ever been. He scoffs at the snobbery that differentiates a ‘traveller’ and a tourist, and at travel journalism which leaves readers feeling envious and annoyed. Gill sees his journalism as an attempt to bring the reader along with him.

Seeking the silver lining in a volcanic ash cloud

- Dr Rachel Andrew is a clinical psychologist working for the NHS in Lancashire. The opinions expressed are her own. -

I spoke to Sophie, a good friend of mine, on Wednesday.

She is currently stranded in Majorca, Spain, as a consequence of the volcanic ash from Iceland. When I asked her how she was feeling about her situation she replied, “I’m feeling great.”

Her response was in sharp contrast to the usual reports of those stranded with their feelings of worry, fear, frustration and resentment.

We all have friends who seem happy and confident in challenging situations and the difference in attitude is about the way they think. The way we cognitively process our circumstances plays a huge part in the way we feel about them, and how we then cope. This process can be broken down into different parts.

First, like Sophie, those viewing this situation optimistically will naturally highlight the positive consequences of it, “I’ve got an extra week of sun, wine and good food”, while minimising the downside, “I might have to do some catching up at work but it shouldn’t be that much.”

For some, this will be harder than others as there is a complex cost/ benefit analysis that we all make when assessing an unexpected situation. But thinking about the benefits of being stranded helps us cope.

Travellers could feel long-lasting impact of volcano disruption

- Professor Robert Bor is a clinical psychologist with a special interest in aviation and  travel psychology. He has published several books on this topic. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The opening of UK airspace on Wednesday will clearly bring some relief to travellers stranded around the world. For others, their misery and feelings of fear and uncertainty will continue well after they have returned home, and that could be still a few weeks for now.

The emotional dust cloud generated could even take months or longer to clear as people struggle to make sense of the vulnerability that they have experienced and hardships they have endured.

Many travellers will be confused by what they perceive to be conflicting information: less than 24 hours ago it was unsafe to fly and now today the authorities have changed their minds.

A large proportion of the travelling public are apprehensive about flying at the best of times, and up to 10 percent suffer from a fear of flying. This new and largely invisible danger that emanates from Iceland will do nothing but feed their anxieties. Fears, phobias and vulnerabilities about travel and flying will be exacerbated at this time.

The human and emotional cost of this unprecedented disruption is enormous and complex. Television and newspapers have brought us images of people stranded abroad. But what is the nature of their distress and misery?

Many will feel vulnerable and abandoned. They will be asking ‘who cares about or for us?’; ‘who is to blame?’. Those stranded repeatedly express deep resentment that they have been left to make their own arrangements and to cope on their own.

Why the Icelandic volcano could herald even more disruption

- Dr Andrew Hooper is an Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology and is an expert on monitoring deformation of Icelandic volcanoes. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The unprecedented no-fly zone currently in force across much of Europe has already caused the greatest chaos to air travel since the Second World War.  Thousands of flights have been cancelled or postponed with millions of travel plans affected.

The economic consequence to our ‘just-in-time’ society is incalculable at this stage given the disruption to holidays, business plans and indeed the wider business supply chain.  However, the global cost of the disruption will surely ultimately result in a cost of billions, with the share price of several airlines in particular already taking a hit.

It is exceptionally hard to gauge how long the current grounding of flights will remain in force, although Eyjafjallajökull, the Icelandic volcano which has erupted, could potentially sputter on for months or even more than a year.  Much could depend upon weather patterns, especially wind direction, over the next few days.

The worst-case scenario in terms of precedent here is the 1783-1784 eruption at Laki (a very large eruption of 14km3 compared to the one in Mount St. Helens in 1980 of 1 km3) that had a huge impact on the northern hemisphere, reducing temperatures by up to 3 degrees.  This led to catastrophe far beyond the shores of Iceland (where 25 percent of population died), with thousands of recorded deaths in Britain due to poisoning and extreme cold, and record low rainfall in North Africa.

By contrast, the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 1821-1823 (when only about 0.1km3 was erupted) had little impact beyond the shores of Iceland, where livestock were killed by flourine poisoning.  Like 1821-1823, this current eruption is likely to remain small in terms of volume, but in an age of mass aviation, a relatively small amount of erupted ash is having huge consequences.

One volcanic eruption in Alaska in 1989 necessitated the postponement and cancellation of flights in North America for days.  It is likely that the fallout from the volcanic eruption yesterday will be worse because European airspace is more congested than in North America for global airline traffic.

from The Great Debate:

Icelandic, Greek sagas show sovereign risks

-- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. --

Developments in cash-strapped Iceland and Greece nicely illustrate two themes for 2010: sovereign risk and financial balkanization.

Iceland is balking at crushing terms demanded as part of its making whole overseas depositors in its ruined banking system, while Greece is involved in a game of chicken with the euro zone authorities over how, when and with whose assistance it heals its fiscal difficulties.

Like so many of us paying bills in January we ran up last year, they face a depressing prospect and no easy way out.

First, Iceland, whose president vetoed an agreement with Britain and the Netherlands to pay about $5 billion towards the costs of reimbursing depositors in its failed Icesave bank, saying he would put the bill to a referendum. While British and Dutch officials have mustered up a good show of outrage, President Grimsson's move should not surprise; he was petitioned by a fifth of the population, each of whom can look forward to helping to pay back their individual $17,000 share of the costs.

Iceland is not refusing to repay the debt, which it acknowledges, but wants repayments tied to gross domestic product through 2024 with the possibility of a renegotiation if the full amount is not repaid by then. It is a brave move, and maybe a foolhardy one, given that the rejection puts in doubt an aid package from the International Monetary Fund and Scandinavia, as well as potentially hurting its bid to join the European Union. Iceland's debt has already been downgraded to junk status by Fitch Ratings, with similar moves likely.

No one looks good in this saga, certainly not Iceland, which was effectively a hedge fund with a small fishing fleet attached and, you have to say, vastly better controls on overfishing then overlending. The Netherlands and Britain also look silly and incompetent; neither took effective steps to protect their citizens from the menace of Vikings offering higher rates of interest. Last but not least is the credulousness and cupidity of the British and Dutch depositors, including some local governments which not only chased the highest rates of interest but sometimes concentrated the vast majority of their funds with one bank.