The Great Debate UK

Financial Crisis Part II

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- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

Hollywood would never allow a record-breaking disaster movie to go without a sequel. The same seems to be true of the 2008 banking crisis.

In the end, the Greeks are going to get some kind of bailout – of that, we can be absolutely certain, because European policymakers are afraid that Greece could be Europe’s Lehman-AIG.

The resistance of the German Government has been undermined by the dawning realisation that a Greek default would be a major blow to its own banks, which own around 45bn Euros of Greek sovereign debt. Taken on its own, I suspect that would not be enough to persuade Frau Merkel to brave the wrath of her electorate on behalf of the Greeks, but the clincher is the fear that the contagion could spread.

Punishing investment bankers: the nanny-state goes global

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Laurence_Copeland- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

In a previous blog, I expressed the fear that in the aftermath of the financial crisis we were going to see either the innocent punished or guilty men convicted of the wrong crimes, or maybe both.

Greenspan and the curse of counterfactual

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Laurence_Copeland-150x150- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

Suppose that, instead of appeasing Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler at Munich in 1938, Neville Chamberlain had taken Britain to war, what would today’s history books say about the episode?

Greece and the mythology of the EU

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Laurence_Copeland- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The (probably temporary) resolution of the Greek crisis seems to have produced a result which was unexpected – by me, at least. For the first time in the history of the EU, the German taxpayer has refused to be sacrificed on the altar of European solidarity.

The Budget: What’s it got to do with economics?

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Laurence_Copeland- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. He might participate in a Reuters Budget live blog at noon GMT on Wednesday, March 24, 2010. Please tune in and join the discussion.-

The UK media have a long-established tradition of investing Budgets with a theatrical level of tension far in excess of their economic importance. It remains to be seen whether they will consider next week’s budget worth the effort of building up, because it is likely to be a complete non-event.

Is Hyde Park for sale?

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Laurence_Copeland- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

So Bundestag members have been suggesting Greece sell an island or two, or maybe even the Acropolis, in order to pay off its mountainous debts?

Will the Tories come clean on public sector cuts?

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LaurenceCopeland

- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

In the movie “The Untouchables”, the cop played by Sean Connery brushes aside his sidekick’s assertion that he really does want to nail Al Capone with the response: “Yes, but what are you prepared to do?”

Will they have the nerve to call the next phase QE2?

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Laurence_Copeland- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

It is hard to be too pessimistic about the economic outlook for the rich countries, and impossible as far as the UK is concerned. With every day that passes, it becomes clearer that, far from being out of the woods, we are once again plunging into recession and possibly crisis.

Bankers’ bonuses: the fish stinks from the head

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copelandl- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The awful thing about lynch mobs is they so often hang an innocent man, leaving the guilty totally untouched.  In the case of the banks, the danger is acute.  As I have already argued, hedge funds and private equity are being unfairly targeted, especially in Europe. But there is another, even less popular class which is likely to end up in the firing line, for no good reason and with consequences which could be damaging for all of us.

Is a queue forming at the EU’s fiscal soup kitchen?

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copelandl- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -

Back in the prehistory of the euro zone, I wrote an article in the Times trying to work out how the game currently being played out in Europe would end.

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