The Great Debate UK
Bank of England Inflation report offers markets a reality check
-Mark Bolsom is Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own.-
Sterling tumbled to a one week low against the dollar in trading this morning, after the Bank of England delivered its latest quarterly inflation and growth forecasts today.
In his speech, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King downgraded his economic growth forecasts and raised inflation expectations, saying he expected inflation would fall well below its 2 per cent target in two years, even if interest rates stay low.
While markets had expected growth forecasts to be lowered, the Quarterly Inflation Report has been a bit of a reality check. The preliminary reading of Quarter 2’s GDP figure had put the markets in a good mood, as it looked like the economy was back on track.
UK economy’s make-or-break budget
- Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading desk at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own-
Later today, Chancellor George Osborne will unveil his first budget, where he is widely expected to take a tough stance. To the financial markets, this emergency budget is the agenda-setting piece of this parliament. Markets, media, consumers and businesses alike have all braced themselves for what has been billed as the sharpest fiscal tightening since the end of the Second World War.
A hung parliament offers sterling little comfort
-Mark Bolsom is head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own.-
The final results are almost fully in and despite months of intense speculation the hung parliament outcome has come as an almighty shock to the financial markets.
Darling’s “lame-duck” budget
- Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own. He will participate in a Reuters Budget live blog at noon GMT on Wednesday, March 24, 2010. Please tune in and join the discussion. -
While the UK’s financial media has billed the 2010 budget as Chancellor Alistair Darling’s most important – due to their assumption it will be his last – it seems that the financial markets have taken a more relaxed view, feeling its importance has been somewhat overstated by the media.
An alternative view of the crisis in Greece
-Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own.-
Greece has been dominating the headlines lately with many commentators heavily criticising its burgeoning deficits and perceived threat to eurozone stability. But is such heavy criticism really justified, or are the Greeks simply being made scapegoats for systematic failings? After all, Greece did not cause the current financial crisis, but is instead one of the major victims.
QE pause shows there is a long way to go
- Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own. -
Thursday’s decision by the Bank of England to keep both interest rates and its asset purchasing programme on hold was hardly a surprise and had been largely priced in to markets.
GDP figures show we’re not out of the woods yet
-Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own.-
As expected, Gross Domestic Product figures released today confirmed that the UK has finally emerged from recession. According to the Office for National Statistics, the UK economy grew by 0.1 percent during the last 3 months of 2009, bringing to an end 6 consecutive quarters of contraction.
Has the Bank of England helped stem economic decline?
-Mark Bolsom is the Head of the UK Trading Desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank FX payments specialist. The opinions expressed are his own.-
The onset of 2009 saw the pound well and truly on the back foot against both the dollar and euro, at one stage hitting a six-year low against the greenback (falling to $1.3751) and an all-time low versus the single currency. In one week in January, the pound fell 4.5 percent against the euro, 5.7 percent against the yen and 6 percent against the dollar.
Will inflation soar when QE is withdrawn?
- Mark Bolsom is Head of the UK Trading desk at Travelex, the world’s largest non-bank foreign exchange and international payments provider. The opinions expressed are his own. -
The rise in November’s CPI figure was larger than expected, but not a total surprise and markets have largely ignored the data.
