The Great Debate UK
- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own. -
Hollywood would never allow a record-breaking disaster movie to go without a sequel. The same seems to be true of the 2008 banking crisis.
In the end, the Greeks are going to get some kind of bailout – of that, we can be absolutely certain, because European policymakers are afraid that Greece could be Europe’s Lehman-AIG.
The resistance of the German Government has been undermined by the dawning realisation that a Greek default would be a major blow to its own banks, which own around 45bn Euros of Greek sovereign debt. Taken on its own, I suspect that would not be enough to persuade Frau Merkel to brave the wrath of her electorate on behalf of the Greeks, but the clincher is the fear that the contagion could spread.