The Great Debate UK

from MacroScope:

Who will win this year’s Nobel Prize for Economics?

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And the Nobel laureate for economics in 2010 is?

Thomson Reuters expert David Pendlebury might have an idea. At least one of the picks from his annual predictions of winners (economics, chemisty, and so on) has won a Nobel prize over the years. Here is his short-list for economics this year.

* Alberto Alesina of Harvard University in Massachusetts for research on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, especially politico-economic cycles.

* Nobuhiro Kiyotaki of Princeton University and John Moore of Britain's University of Edinburgh and the London School of Economics for their Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output. It described Japan's real-estate crisis in the 1990s and could describe some of the causes of the recent U.S. recession.

* Kevin Murphy of the University of Chicago for research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, and how medical research pays off.

Pranab Bardhan on the economic rise of China and India

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In its May economic outlook, the Organisation of Economic Cooperation and Development projected upward growth outlooks for BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China — the world’s four largest emerging economies.

Strong growth in those economies is helping to pull other countries out of recession, the OECD said. The Paris-based organisation projects that China‚Äôs GDP growth will exceed 11 percent for 2010, and anticipates that India’s real GDP growth will be 8.3 percent. Russia‘s GDP growth is expected to be 5.5 percent, and Brazil‘s is projected at 6.5 percent. By comparison, the OECD projects that the Euro area will see 1.5 percent real GDP growth, while the UK will see a 2.2 percent growth.

Pascal Bruckner on “The Tyranny of Guilt”

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Europe’s collective sense of guilt weakens its position in international relations, French author and philosopher Pascal Bruckner argues in a new book.

Hampered by a persistent fixation on historical low points — including its role in fascism, communism, racism and imperialism — rather than its positive attributes, Europe by default relinquishes the protection of its sovereignty to the U.S., Bruckner proposes in “The Tyranny of Guilt: An Essay on Western Masochism“.

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