The Great Debate UK
from The Great Debate:
Don't expect the year-long rally in risky assets to be undermined any time soon by the Federal Reserve becoming concerned about inflation.
The old metaphor -- that the Fed's job is to take away the punchbowl just when the party starts getting good -- just doesn't apply in the current circumstances. That's not to say inflation isn't a threat in the medium term -- it is virtually a promise.
But punchbowl thinking dates from a time when firstly the Fed was presumed to have a degree of control over events we now know is not true and secondly to an era when asset prices were the caboose rather than the engine of the economic train.
Even with an economy that is now growing, the risk of a self-reinforcing de-leveraging spiral is enough to ensure that the Fed will not pull the trigger on tightening any time soon.