The Great Debate UK
What our wellbeing says about the economy
- Peter Dixon is a guest columnist, the views expressed are his own. He is global financial economist at Commerzbank -
The popular image of economists is one of pointy-headed analysts, poring over data and running models in order to make predictions about the future which will invariably prove to be wrong.
While this is a distortion of the truth, the economics profession has not helped itself in recent years by cloaking analysis in pseudo-scientific terms, making it inaccessible to those without the necessary degree of mathematical training.
Although the great crash of 2007-08 has done nothing to enhance the reputation of economists’ ability to predict the future, it has opened up a debate about the nature of research undertaken in the economics and finance professions.
Issues in monetary normalisation
– John Kemp is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –
Investors like simple narratives, which is why markets swing erratically and illogically between extremes of hope and fear. Reality is more complex. As F. Scott Fitzgerald remarked “the true test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two contradictory ideas at the same time”.
Short-time work cushions Europe in crisis
– Paul Taylor is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –
Unlike the 1930s, there are no hunger marches or tent cities of the homeless and jobless in Europe’s biggest economic slump since the Great Depression.
from The Great Debate:
Get ready for the “Great Immoderation”
-- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --
The recession will soon be dead, laid to rest alongside the idea of the "Great Moderation", a set of hopeful assumptions that underpins expectations about economic growth and asset valuations.
This, when investors, bankers and executives ultimately realise it will cause them to pull in their horns, take less risks and be less willing to pay high prices for assets.
from The Great Debate:
A chink of light for the euro zone
-- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --
Even without a huge fiscal boost or a hell-for-leather central bank, Europe could have a recovery, albeit a tepid one, on the cards by the end of the year.
Recent forward looking economic data is still grim, but hides within it the seeds of a rebound, as the absolutely brutal fall in manufacturing over the past six months burns itself out.
Apocalypse Now: A return to high borrowing, high taxes and weak growth
–Gerard Lyons is chief economist at Standard Chartered. Any opinions expressed are his own. –
Britain is clearly a Jekyll and Hyde economy. Or that at least is what the Chancellor would like us to believe. The bad news we are now seeing in the economy, public finances and across parts of the financial sector will not last. We are in the Mr Hyde phase. But, don’t worry, we will soon be back to the normal Dr Jekyll soon.
The toughest Budget ever
– David Kuo is a director at the financial Web site The Motley Fool. The views expressed are his own. –
The 2009 Budget could be the toughest that any Chancellor will ever have to produce. There is a gaping hole in the country’s finances. Alistair Darling, as custodian of the country’s cheque book, has to find a way to plug it. Not bridge it, not tiptoe around it, not spin across it, but to close it before it gets bigger.
Time to ease up on quantitative easing
– Neil Collins is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –
Quantitative easing is like drinking. Nothing much seems to happen at first, so you take a little more. As the warm alcoholic glow spreads over you, it feels pretty good, and surely another glass will make you feel even better. Stop soon enough, before you start feeling woozy, and there are no ill effects. Go on until you can’t stand, and the effects can be disastrous.
from The Great Debate:
Africa and the global economic crisis
- Jorge Maia is head of Research and Information for Industrial Development Corporation of South Africa, established in 1940 to promote economic growth and industrial development. The opinions expressed are his own -
Serious shockwaves are hitting Africa's shores as the global economic crisis unfolds.
from UK News:
How necessary is the G20 summit?
From the cosy fireside chats and walks in the woods of 30 years ago, world summitry has expanded beyond all recognition, with this week's G20 meeting in London being billed in some quarters as the biggest gathering of leaders since 1945.
But the problems now are of course much bigger too. Long gone are the days when a few soothing words about co-operation on currencies would be enough to declare a summit a success.
