The Great Debate UK

from Felix Salmon:

Could the EFSF engineer a Greek restructuring?

By Felix Salmon
June 20, 2011

We're now close enough to a Greek default that the likes of Daniel Gros are coming up with schemes for how to avoid such a thing:

Nuclear plants aren’t the only meltdown worry in Germany

June 13, 2011

Having just got back from a couple of days in Hannover, I couldn’t help but be struck by the dominance of the local news agenda by two topics – and the almost complete absence of a third. Taking the British media at face value, I might have expected a city in near-panic, with people nervously scanning menus for safe dishes to order and maybe antiseptic handwashing facilities being hurriedly installed in public places. In fact, the town looked exactly as I remembered it from my last visit a few years ago, with E.coli rarely mentioned either in conversation or on the 24-hour TV news channels.

from Felix Salmon:

Are Greek bonds pricing in a massive default?

By Felix Salmon
May 26, 2011

Martin Feldstein reckons that the market is pricing in a "massive" Greek default:

from Felix Salmon:

The fraught politics facing Lagarde

By Felix Salmon
May 24, 2011

To get an idea of the job facing the new head of the IMF, check out Patrick Wintour's interview with Vince Cable, a UK cabinet minister who, perfectly sensibly, says that Greece is going to have to restructure its debts. Cable puts a positive spin on the idea: a "soft restructuring", he says, with Greece staying in the euro zone, could lead to a closer political union.

from Felix Salmon:

The problems with a Greek “light dusting”

By Felix Salmon
May 4, 2011

According to Christopher Whittall, "a consensus has grown among market participants that authorities will look to avoid triggering CDS when restructuring Greek bonds". Recall the inimitable language of Lee Buchheit, in his latest paper on how Greece might restructure:

from Felix Salmon:

Expecting an early Greek default

By Felix Salmon
April 20, 2011

Greece is going to restructure its debts -- and it's going to do so before mid-2013. That's the clear message sent by the latest Reuters poll of 55 economists from across Europe: 46 of them saw a restructuring in the next two years, with four saying it would happen in the next three months.

The death of the euro is greatly exaggerated

April 8, 2011

-Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School and a co-author of “Verdict on the Crash” published by the Institute of Economic Affairs. The opinions expressed are his own.-

Who is helping who in the China-Europe relationship?

January 24, 2011

-Kathleen Brooks is research director at forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

from Felix Salmon:

Why Europe’s periphery should restructure their bonds

By Felix Salmon
January 18, 2011

The drumbeat for debt restructurings on Europe's periphery is becoming too loud to ignore. The Economist has now come out strongly in favor; its leader gives the strongest case for biting the bullet now. And Mohamed El-Erian has now officially signed on:

from Felix Salmon:

The US won’t default, even if the debt ceiling stays

By Felix Salmon
January 13, 2011

Greg Ip makes a very important point today, which I haven't seen made anywhere else*: even if the US debt ceiling isn't lifted, that doesn't mean the government will default.