The Great Debate UK

from Felix Salmon:

Restructuring European debt

By Felix Salmon
December 10, 2010

Are we going to see debt defaults in Europe? Yes—and Barry Eichengreen has a positively crystalline explanation why. It's a first-rate example of economic concepts being explained in plain, easy-to-understand English:

from Felix Salmon:

Why European debt defaults are necessary

By Felix Salmon
November 30, 2010

Jim O'Neill of Goldman Sachs is now going around saying that the eurozone needs "solidarity," and that Germany in particular needs to get with the all-for-one-and-one-for-all program, after getting itself into this mess by encouraging far too many countries to join the euro in the first place. At the same time, the survival of the euro, he says, "requires Germany to be not so noisy and aggressive about how other countries should run their economies."

from Felix Salmon:

The underwhelming Irish bailout

By Felix Salmon
November 22, 2010

Color me underwhelmed by the Irish bailout. By all accounts it's going to be less than €100 billion -- probably in the €80 billion to €90 billion range -- and that sum has to cover the country's entire borrowing needs for the next three years. The NYT has a breakdown:

from Felix Salmon:

Why Ireland is bailing out foreign banks

By Felix Salmon
September 27, 2010

Robert Peston has a theory for why Ireland can't bail in the sophisticated institutions which lent untold billions to the country's beleaguered banks:

from Felix Salmon:

Greece: The bull case

By Felix Salmon
September 1, 2010

Back in April, I noted with respect to Greece that "the bear case is terrifying, and the bull case is very hard to articulate". So it's extremely useful to have a clearly-articulated paper from the IMF, entitled "Default in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely", which puts the bull case much more vividly than I've seen it before.

Not much stress, not much test

July 26, 2010

-Laurence Copeland is professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.-

False dawn or risk recovery?

June 15, 2010

-Jane Foley is research director at Forex.com. The opinions expressed are her own.-

A history lesson for lenders

June 9, 2010

GREECE

-Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.-

from Breakingviews:

Sovereign debt maths show risk of vicious circle

By Hugo Dixon
April 9, 2010

How can a country support debt of over 100 percent of GDP for many years and then suddenly start spiralling towards insolvency? That question of sovereign debt maths is not merely academic. It is highly relevant to the likes of Greece and Italy.

from The Great Debate:

Watch banks for clues on Greece

February 9, 2010

-- James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. --

As odd as it sounds, concerns about the effects of a euro zone sovereign crisis on Europe's still poorly capitalized banks may prove to be the tipping point that leads to a swifter bailout of Greece.