The Great Debate UK
- John Ross is visiting professor at Shanghai’s Jiao Tong University where he writes a blog on globalisation. The views expressed are his own. -
The success of China’s economic stimulus package has attracted increasing attention in Britain and internationally for two reasons. The first is simply its importance for the world economy. Second whether there are general lessons to be learned.
The impact of China’s economic programme can be seen in that it is likely the whole of world economic growth this year in net terms will be accounted for by China.
The sceptics on China’s stimulus package have been disproved by the facts. China’s GDP growth this year will be eight percent or slightly above. China’s GDP grew by 7.9 percent year-on-year in the second quarter and was accelerating –- the best private sector estimates are China’s economy grew at an annualised 13-15 percent in the second quarter. Urban investment increased 34 percent and as producer prices were dropping the real increase was probably around 40 percent. Retail sales increased 15 percent.