The Great Debate UK

from The Great Debate:

China can outgrow overcapacity, at least for now

WeiGucrop.jpg-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --

China watchers are worried that excessive lending leads to massive overcapacity. However, the risk of Beijing pressing too hard on the brake is even greater. At least for now, China should be able to growing its way out of its bad debt problems.

Banking regulator Liu Mingkang recently told a conference that China's banks should lend out 6-7 trillion yuan next year, equivalent to about one fifth of China's annual output. Some think that is too much. However, these fears are overdone. Indeed, if new lending falls below 10 trillion yuan, bad debts will soar, private investment will be crowded out and the economic recovery may be derailed.

Since the stock of loans has been enlarged by this year's explosive credit growth, the regulator's target represents  a 15 percent increase in China's loan base. This is in line with past trends, but marks a sharp slowdown from this year's 30 percent growth in total loans.

Just to keep funding current ongoing projects, the economy would need 8.3 trillion yuan in new loans in 2010, according to Nomura estimates. So the current goal implies that here would be no money left for new projects, and some current projects will not receive funding.

from The Great Debate:

A rally that is both rational and crazy

(Jjamessaft1ames Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Stocks and other risky assets are rallying around the world this week because the Group of 20 nations said on the weekend they would keep the economic stimulus flowing, a state of events which illustrates where we are and what a very strange place it is.

The G20, the only group of big hitters that matters because it is the only group which includes the Chinese, met in Scotland over the weekend and, as is the way of these things, did very little with immediate consequences for anybody.

from The Great Debate:

UK takes right step on too-big banks

jamessaft1.jpg(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

So it can be done after all.

Britain is poised to take tough steps to break up the large banks it rescued, setting it in stark contrast to the United States, which seems set on a policy of shoring up the unfair advantages it grants its too-big-to-fail banks while regulating around the edges.

It is quite a change for Britain, which has a sorry history of self-serving self-regulation in financial services combined with limp and outgunned official control.

from The Great Debate:

The death of the “punchbowl” metaphor

jamessaft1.jpg (James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

Don't expect the year-long rally in risky assets to be undermined any time soon by the Federal Reserve becoming concerned about inflation.

The old metaphor -- that the Fed's job is to take away the punchbowl just when the party starts getting good -- just doesn't apply in the current circumstances. That's not to say inflation isn't a threat in the medium term -- it is virtually a promise.

from The Great Debate:

Winning the copyright battle in China

WeiGucrop.jpg-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --

When it comes to protecting intellectual property in China, the United States often feels that its pleas are falling on deaf ears. Its best hope is that China recognizes that copyright protection is in its own interests. To achieve that, Washington needs to push for changes from within.

After a fruitless decade of lobbying China on intellectual property, Washington has reached for the microphone. This week, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched a high-profile international forum on intellectual property in Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong Province and best known as both China's manufacturing hub and the global centre for intellectual property theft.

from The Great Debate:

Time for a shareholder revolt

jamessaft1(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

There are encouraging signs that shareholders are becoming more assertive in defending their interests.

The Financial Times reported on Monday that some of Britain's largest institutional shareholders - including Standard Life, Legal & General and M&G - are working on a plan to bypass investment banks by creating a club to underwrite new issues of equity by small and medium-sized British companies, a move that could save hugely on fees.

from The Great Debate:

An unhealthy privilege

jamessaft1--James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.--

When the U.S. dollar ultimately loses its status as the world's premier reserve currency it will be painful for all involved, almost certainly disorganized, and very possibly a very good thing.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick outlined the risks to the dollar's status in a speech in Washington on Monday.

from The Great Debate:

Global imbalances: out with a bang?

jamessaft1.jpg(James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own)

The simplest way to end the imbalances in the world's economy is also sadly perhaps the most likely: for the Chinese to stop buying U.S. debt.

This is not going to happen anytime soon, for one thing deleveraging in the U.S. will for a time make U.S. Treasuries look good value, but a buyer's strike is a heck of a lot more likely than the orchestrated rebalancing the U.S. will push at this week's G-20 meeting of leading nations.

from The Great Debate:

China’s coming magnificent bubble

jamessaft1.jpg--James Saft is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own--

If and when China makes its currency convertible and opens its financial system the stage will be set for a bubble that should make the dotcom and housing booms look tame.

China has recently signaled its key aspirations: for a greater international role for the renminbi and for Shanghai to become a great financial capital. Neither is imminent, but both imply, if not require, a series of steps that, taken in combination with China's legitimately great potential for growth, could lead to a bubble of magnificent and dangerous proportions.

from The Great Debate:

Ex-Google China chief’s dream factory

wei-gu.jpg-- Wei Gu is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are her own --

Google's former China head Kai-Fu Lee wants to create China's next internet giant in a factory. He believes that by combining the smartest entrepreneurs, the shrewdest businesspeople and the brightest business ideas, he will be able to create five highly sellable companies a year. That sounds like an ideal model for venture capital, but is he being realistic?

Lee's plan, formulated while he spent time in hospital over the summer, follows a battle with Beijing regulators who wanted to censor Google searches that lead to pornographic sites. It has drawn strong support from investors.

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