The Great Debate UK

from The Great Debate:

“Act and learn” versus “debate and wait”

By Mohamed El-Erian and Michael Spence
The opinions expressed are their own.

In formulating policy, the process and the mindset can have a significant impact on the success or failure of outcomes. How you do it can be as or more important than what you do.

In today’s western economies, this observation may go a long way in explaining why policy outcomes have consistently fallen short of what policymakers themselves have expected, let alone what is needed to address important and growing economic challenges.

Signs of disappointing policy outcomes are, unfortunately, all around us. Over the last two years, American policymakers have failed miserably to lower persistently high unemployment despite a series of stimulus measures, fiscal and monetary, conventional and unconventional. In Europe, the debt crisis has spread despite numerous summits, declarations, policy actions and political changes.

In both cases, policymakers identified and sometimes mis-identified the problems and took highly publicized steps to solve them. Considerable financial resources and political capital were deployed. The credibility of policymakers (and policymaking itself) was placed on the line. Yet to no avail. The identified problems not only persisted, they deepened.
When one compares policymaking episodes around the world – successful and less so – it seems clear that there is more at play than the content of policies. The mindset of policymakers and the process of policymaking seem to also have a lot to do with the disappointing outcomes. Indeed, one often hears policymakers point to political dysfunctionality as being the major hindrance to good outcomes.

Obama blows the starting whistle – who will his opponent be?

OBAMA/-Andrew Hammond is an Associate Partner at Reputation Inc, and was formerly a Special Adviser in the UK Government and a Geopolitics Consultant at Oxford Analytica. The opinions expressed are his own.-

With U.S. President Barack Obama announcing his re-election campaign bid on Monday, the unofficial starting whistle for the 2012 election has been blown.

from The Great Debate:

Helping Haiti: Stop the handouts

HAITI/

By Danielle Grace Warren
The opinions expressed are her own.

The people of Haiti have a name for the earthquake that rocked their country: Goudougoudou, an onomatopoetic creole nickname invented for the earthquake meant to emulate the sound of the earth rumbling, the buildings falling. There are numbers for it, too: 230,000 deaths, 59 aftershocks and 1.5 million people who remain displaced nearly a year later.

While over a billion dollars in US aid was promised was for rebuilding Haiti is tied up in the umbilicus of Washington, Port au Prince residents are settling between piles of debris — 98% of which still has not been removed. Haitians pick through the rubble for building scraps to reinforce torn tarpaulin.

from Breakingviews:

Bush still shows blind eye for financial crisis

By James Ledbetter

During his presidency, George W. Bush was not known as an overly reflective man, or as someone with a powerful thirst for economic knowledge (despite being the only president with a Harvard MBA). It is thus unsurprising that his memoir is not overly reflective about the causes of the financial meltdown that closed out his presidency, nor even very generous with details about what it was like to preside over. Anyone who opens his new memoir, "Decision Points," intent on unearthing Bush's heretofore buried financial insights will be disappointed.

Still, there is some value in glimpsing how Bush perceives the crisis, in part because his economic perspective is so widely shared in the newly resurgent Republican Party. In the chapter devoted to the financial crisis, Bush paints an economic picture using almost exclusively his favorite primary color: tax cuts. Tax cuts, in his view, got America out of the recession that began shortly after he took office. Tax cuts provided another critical boost in 2007. Tax cuts are beautiful because they take money out of the government's hands and place it into citizens' hands; that is all Bush knows, and all he thinks he needs to know, about the economy.

from The Great Debate:

Bernanke’s high stakes poker game at the G-20

By Peter Navarro
The opinions expressed are his own.

Ben Bernanke is about to play the biggest poker hand in global monetary policy history: The Federal Reserve chairman is trying to force China to fold on its fixed dollar-yuan currency peg. This is high-stakes poker.

Although Bernanke will not be sitting at the table to play his quantitative easing card when all the members of the G-20, including China, meet this week in South Korea. Every G-20 country is suffering from an already grossly under-valued yuan pegged to a dollar now falling rapidly under the weight of Bernanke’s QE2. In fact, breaking the highly corrosive dollar-yuan peg is the most important step the G-20 can take for both robust global economic recovery and financial market stability.

from The Great Debate:

How the world looks at Obama after midterms

By George Friedman
The following is an excerpt from Friedman's weekly column. The opinions expressed are his own.

The results of the 2010 U.S. midterm elections were as expected: The Republicans took the House but did not take the Senate. The Democrats have such a small margin in the Senate, however, that Republicans can block the Obama administration initiatives in both houses of Congress. The public has thus taken away Obama's ability to legislate on domestic affairs.

from Tales from the Trail:

Reuters/Ipsos poll: 52 pct don’t think Obama will be re-elected

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President Barack Obama is not up for re-election this week, but the outcome of congressional elections will be seen as a referendum on his policies.

A Reuters/Ipsos  poll predicts that Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives by winning 231 seats, compared with 204 seats for Democrats, in the midterm elections Tuesday.

How U.S. consultants changed the face of world politics

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USA-COURT/KAGAN

The following is guest post by Andrew Hammond, a director at ReputationInc, an international strategic communications firm, was formerly a special adviser to the Home Secretary in the government of Prime Minister Tony Blair and a geopolitics consultant at Oxford Analytica. The opinions expressed are his own.

With less than a month until the crucial November 2 U.S. mid-term elections, the eyes of much of the world are focused upon how many extra seats the Republicans will win in Congress. Should the party win back control of the House of Representatives and/or Senate, President Barack Obama’s agenda will be further stymied.  This could have profound implications not just for U.S. domestic policy, but also foreign policy issues, especially those which require congressional ratification, such as arms reductions treaties, or indeed any climate change deal to replace Kyoto.

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