The Great Debate UK

Why volcanoes are likely to continue to cause chaos in Europe

By Dr Andy Hooper. The opinions expressed are his own.

Within the space of just over a year, aircraft have now been grounded in Europe twice by ash blowing in from Iceland.  This has caused many millions of pounds of disruption.

A key question uppermost in many minds is whether the frequency of eruptions in Iceland is increasing. The short answer here is ‘yes, probably’. But, it is not just the frequency of eruptions that matters.  To impact the airspace of the United Kingdom and continental Europe, the ash has to be ejected high enough, and be fine enough that it can remain airborne for days.  Then the winds have to conspire to push it towards Europe, and the winds blow over Iceland from the north only a small fraction of the time.

Studies by researchers at the University of Iceland have noted that the frequency of eruptions from volcanoes beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap (including Grímsvötn, which erupted in May this year) seems to wax and wane with a cycle of about 140 years.

Prior to the 1980s, there were no such eruptions from these volcanoes for over 40 years and there have now been four within 15 years.  The reason for the apparent cyclicity is not established but, in any case, we appear very likely to have entered a phase of more eruptions.

The volcanoes beneath the Vatnajökull ice cap are not, of course, the only ones in Iceland — Eyjafjallajökull, for instance, which erupted last year, is not covered by the Vatnajökull ice cap — and the same patterns may not apply elsewhere.  However, perhaps more importantly than the number of eruptions, the University of Iceland study also noted that the intensity of eruptions increases in times of high activity, meaning that the height of the ash, and therefore the chances of it reaching Europe, also increases.

Perhaps of even greater concern is that the major fissure eruptions have also occurred during periods of high volcanic activity, although with only two of these within the last 800 years, this could be coincidence.  Here the concern is not so much for air traffic, but for something far worse.

International crises and the value of Global System Dynamics

-Lord Julian Hunt is a Visiting Professor at Delft University of Technology. The opinions expressed are his own.-

In their different ways, the disruption and damage caused by the ongoing Icelandic Volcano eruption, and the major oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, have underlined how low-probability events can wreak havoc locally and across the world.

Both events underline the continuing need for well-established crisis response by international bodies.  Risk assessments taking into account all the diverse scientific and social interactions should enable the public and private sector to prepare in advance.

•    Although international procedures by UN bodies for dealing simultaneously with volcanic eruptions, meteorology and aviation had been agreed and tested at a technical level since the 1990s, the disruption caused by the Icelandic volcano led EU Transport Ministers call for quicker and more coordinated reaction to such crisis situations.

•    In the Gulf of Mexico, the “unprecedented environmental disaster” from the oil spillage shows the need for environmental risk assessment as much as economic risks now being considered in the context of the volcano.

While the volcano and oil spills have causes and consequences that can be explained in terms of earth science, engineering, ecology and economics, other disruptive events with rapid global impacts can result simply from people’s actions — notably the fall of Lehman Brothers and the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

A crisis for aviation leadership

-Professor Amir  Sharif is professor of operations management and director of MBA programmes at Brunel Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.-

It will not have escaped anyone’s notice recently that volcanoes and aircraft do not mix. Six days of global flights being reduced by 30 percent of normal traffic volume amounted to a staggering $200 million per day loss (according to industry bodies such as IATA and the AEA).

The global aviation industry as well as international trade, countries and individuals were left stunned that there is something that can rival and push our competence and technical prowess into submission, and leave us, quite definitely and literally, stranded.

The Eyjafjallajökull eruption has taught us a few, but distinctly harsh, lessons about managing uncertainty in the face of everyday life, and I believe a different mode of thinking will be necessary in future, particularly among those in charge of the aviation world.

The everyday impact of the shutdown of European airspace has shown that humans are still poor at making sense of complex situations.

While safety in this situation is critical and regulators as well as airlines and governments must carefully balance this aspect with events as they unfold, life must go on.

The oft-repeated question about re-routing around ash clouds may be a straightforward and logical thing to do – but on already highly optimised and volumetrically loaded routes, the “fly round” or “go beneath” decision is simply not an option.

from Global News Journal:

Volcano chaos: A pointer to potential Iran/Gulf smoke disruption?

As if they didn’t have enough to think about, planners trying to pin down the unintended consequences of a strike on Iran may be required to reorder their lengthy worry list.

The concern? Iceland’s volcano, or rather, the vivid reminder the exploding mountain provided to governments of the importance of civil emergency planning.

The ash clouds and the flight chaos it produced may be a foretaste, writ large, of the disruption to daily life in the Gulf that could temporarily result from military conflict and its aftermath in the area, some analysts say.

The Kuwait oil fires of the 1990-91 Gulf conflict provide an example of the confusion and damage that can result from smoke and pollution, quite apart from the popular anxiety caused by war itself, write Riad Kahwaji and Theodore Karasik of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis. In January, 1991, Iraqi forces torched hundreds of Kuwaiti oil fields, creating clouds of heavy smoke across the northern Gulf in the last moments of the conflict. Saddam Hussein’s action was mainly political, not military: in what Kuwaitis perceived as a monumental act of spite, he was laying waste to an asset he was forced to relinquish.

But the impact was dramatic. Then the world’s worst oilfield disaster, the problem was worsened by winter weather, with oil-laden rain infesting engines in the air and on the ground, they recall.

The clouds did not significantly affect military operations, which by then were virtually finished. But they caused considerable costs, complications and anxieties in the aftermath, temporarily denting confidence among some in the resilience of Kuwait’s post-war recovery efforts.

The fires burned for nine months, blotting out the sun in places around the northern Gulf and causing record low temperatures.  Hundreds of tonnes of chemical compounds known as polyaromatic hydrocarbons and metal particles were propelled into the atmosphere in oilfire smoke or onto the desert floor in spilled crude oil that formed lakes.

Should travel insurers pay up after volcano disruption?

- Rachel Mason is public relations manager at independent financial service providers Fair Investment Company. The opinions expressed are her own. -

Flights to and from the UK may have resumed in part, but the thousands cancelled over the past week as a result of the volcanic ash are estimated to have cost the airline industry 1.1 billion pounds.

Each day the news is full of stories of woe from disgruntled travellers who have been forced to pay out hundreds and in some cases thousands of pounds to get home by any means they can, but will they be able to get that cash back?

Fears remain that travel insurance companies will try not to pay out, using the ‘act of God’ excuse, and unfortunately for travellers, there is no official line on this.

Nick Starling, director of general insurance and health at the Association of British Insurers says that travel insurance policies will differ and there is no standard set of conditions that apply to a situation of this kind, urging customers to “check their travel insurance policy.”

Great. So what does that actually mean? Well, according to the Trading Standards Institute, air passengers are covered to an extent by their airlines, for example airlines should bear the cost of cancelled flights and rerouting and provide meals, refreshments, hotel accommodation, transport between airport and accommodation, and two free telephone calls, faxes or e-mails.

But, and here’s the crunch, in cases of “extraordinary circumstances” which are “beyond the airlines’ control”, consumers are not entitled to compensation. So if you lose money (wages) as a result of the delays, or decide to take alterative transport home, you will not be covered by your airline, and most likely, you will not be covered by your travel insurance either.

Seeking the silver lining in a volcanic ash cloud

- Dr Rachel Andrew is a clinical psychologist working for the NHS in Lancashire. The opinions expressed are her own. -

I spoke to Sophie, a good friend of mine, on Wednesday.

She is currently stranded in Majorca, Spain, as a consequence of the volcanic ash from Iceland. When I asked her how she was feeling about her situation she replied, “I’m feeling great.”

Her response was in sharp contrast to the usual reports of those stranded with their feelings of worry, fear, frustration and resentment.

We all have friends who seem happy and confident in challenging situations and the difference in attitude is about the way they think. The way we cognitively process our circumstances plays a huge part in the way we feel about them, and how we then cope. This process can be broken down into different parts.

First, like Sophie, those viewing this situation optimistically will naturally highlight the positive consequences of it, “I’ve got an extra week of sun, wine and good food”, while minimising the downside, “I might have to do some catching up at work but it shouldn’t be that much.”

For some, this will be harder than others as there is a complex cost/ benefit analysis that we all make when assessing an unexpected situation. But thinking about the benefits of being stranded helps us cope.

Travellers could feel long-lasting impact of volcano disruption

- Professor Robert Bor is a clinical psychologist with a special interest in aviation and  travel psychology. He has published several books on this topic. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The opening of UK airspace on Wednesday will clearly bring some relief to travellers stranded around the world. For others, their misery and feelings of fear and uncertainty will continue well after they have returned home, and that could be still a few weeks for now.

The emotional dust cloud generated could even take months or longer to clear as people struggle to make sense of the vulnerability that they have experienced and hardships they have endured.

Many travellers will be confused by what they perceive to be conflicting information: less than 24 hours ago it was unsafe to fly and now today the authorities have changed their minds.

A large proportion of the travelling public are apprehensive about flying at the best of times, and up to 10 percent suffer from a fear of flying. This new and largely invisible danger that emanates from Iceland will do nothing but feed their anxieties. Fears, phobias and vulnerabilities about travel and flying will be exacerbated at this time.

The human and emotional cost of this unprecedented disruption is enormous and complex. Television and newspapers have brought us images of people stranded abroad. But what is the nature of their distress and misery?

Many will feel vulnerable and abandoned. They will be asking ‘who cares about or for us?’; ‘who is to blame?’. Those stranded repeatedly express deep resentment that they have been left to make their own arrangements and to cope on their own.

Managing staff shortages during the volcano disruption

-Melanie Franklin is CEO at Maven Training. The opinions expressed are her own.-

Businesses should have learned by now, from the unexpected eruptions of volcanic ash and the global havoc it has wreaked, that flexibility, creativity and the ability to adapt to an unpredictable environment is crucial to survival.

Having the skills to manage a crisis, such as what to do when 25 percent of the workforce may not turn up to work on Monday morning and how to manage the impact, is vital. Those that learned such project management skills will have been putting contingency plans in place as early as Thursday – when the mass flight cancellations started totting up into the thousands.

Below are top ten tips for dealing with such a crisis:

1)    Review existing contingency plans to see what transferable actions can help. No-one plans for these highly unusual circumstances, but most organisations have plans for fire, flood and terrorist disruption.

2)    Meet with the management team to organise resources internally and assess the situation. Identify what resources are missing and find out from remaining employees the impact delayed staff returns will have. Then, if possible, speak to those that are trapped abroad and allow them to contribute to help analyse the gaps.

3)    Reassure those that are directly affected. Staff maybe more concerned with the safety of their job than getting home. If staff are to be effective when they return to work, they must be reassured that their workload is being passed to others and they are not going to be disciplined. Having staff worry about this when they are already experiencing the stress of being trapped abroad will not increase their productivity on their return.

Impact of the volcano disruption on the airlines

- Joris Melkert, MSc BBA, is assistant professor in aerospace engineering at the Delft University of Technology. The opinions expressed are his own.-

Despite the announcement that air space could begin to re-open in Northern Europe, the Icelandic volcano eruption could prove to be a major turning point for the global airline industry with short- to medium-term questions already being asked by some about its future financial viability.

One of the biggest questions, which engineers will be grappling with right now, is whether there is a cost-efficient way to ‘design out’ the current problems that aircraft experience with dust clouds.

The short answer is that it may be possible to make modifications to aircraft engine cores to make them less sensitive to ash deposits.  However, such major engine development is a long term project so no solution will be in sight for at least a year.  Moreover, the expense of such an undertaking could be prohibitively costly for airlines right now.

The volcano eruption has cost the airline industry an estimated 200 million dollars each day.  Voicing the industry’s frustration and concern, the Air Transport in Europe (AEA) trade body warns that, without state aid, some airlines would have potentially gone out of business as soon as next week unless travel restrictions began to be lifted.

The crisis has been especially worrying for the industry for three main reasons.

Why the Icelandic volcano could herald even more disruption

- Dr Andrew Hooper is an Assistant Professor at Delft University of Technology and is an expert on monitoring deformation of Icelandic volcanoes. The opinions expressed are his own. -

The unprecedented no-fly zone currently in force across much of Europe has already caused the greatest chaos to air travel since the Second World War.  Thousands of flights have been cancelled or postponed with millions of travel plans affected.

The economic consequence to our ‘just-in-time’ society is incalculable at this stage given the disruption to holidays, business plans and indeed the wider business supply chain.  However, the global cost of the disruption will surely ultimately result in a cost of billions, with the share price of several airlines in particular already taking a hit.

It is exceptionally hard to gauge how long the current grounding of flights will remain in force, although Eyjafjallajökull, the Icelandic volcano which has erupted, could potentially sputter on for months or even more than a year.  Much could depend upon weather patterns, especially wind direction, over the next few days.

The worst-case scenario in terms of precedent here is the 1783-1784 eruption at Laki (a very large eruption of 14km3 compared to the one in Mount St. Helens in 1980 of 1 km3) that had a huge impact on the northern hemisphere, reducing temperatures by up to 3 degrees.  This led to catastrophe far beyond the shores of Iceland (where 25 percent of population died), with thousands of recorded deaths in Britain due to poisoning and extreme cold, and record low rainfall in North Africa.

By contrast, the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 1821-1823 (when only about 0.1km3 was erupted) had little impact beyond the shores of Iceland, where livestock were killed by flourine poisoning.  Like 1821-1823, this current eruption is likely to remain small in terms of volume, but in an age of mass aviation, a relatively small amount of erupted ash is having huge consequences.

One volcanic eruption in Alaska in 1989 necessitated the postponement and cancellation of flights in North America for days.  It is likely that the fallout from the volcanic eruption yesterday will be worse because European airspace is more congested than in North America for global airline traffic.