Comments on: Recession spells cheap carbon credits http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/18/recession-spells-cheap-carbon-credits/ Thu, 21 Jul 2016 07:57:19 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.2.5 By: Margarita Zhiznevskaya http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/18/recession-spells-cheap-carbon-credits/#comment-26705 Thu, 05 Nov 2009 11:55:48 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=551#comment-26705 Nowadays, it is very difficult to make forecasts in terms of price for carbon credits, especially when you are trying to work out what the price will be like in 2011-2012. The article is quite useful, it’s explaining the current situation. But can we accept the forecasts of specialists, saying that the price for CER in 2012 will be 20 euro or even more?
Sure, we are all waiting for Kyoto Protocol second commitment period, hoping for the best. But it might be a good trap for those who are not willing for Futures trading, and waiting for the CER/ERU issuance in 2012.
From one side, they can win in price, nobody knows.
From the other side, the Second Commitment period will mean the discount of all the quotas for the first commitment period, as it is now regarding quotas issued before 2008. This may cause the price breakdown – lots of companies will be waiting for 2012, and as the result we will get the demand lower, than the amount of quotas, put on the bid of the stock markets. The price can fall to 5 euro and even less.
As Jack Schwager used to say: “If you think that you are smarter than the market – you might be out of your mind”. So we know where we are today, but what will be tomorrow – the market will show.

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By: richard schumacher http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2008/11/18/recession-spells-cheap-carbon-credits/#comment-1306 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 15:30:59 +0000 http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/?p=551#comment-1306 In contrast a tax on the fossil carbon content of all fuels would be easy to administer and have no loopholes associated with fluctuations in demand. A tax of $35 per ton of fossil carbon would immediately make clean power sources such as nuclear, wind, geothermal and Solar economically competitive without subsidies.

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