Comments on: Brace yourself: Political-market risks in 2009

By: Howard Perry

Howard Perry — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 14:29:20 +0000

Ugh. I want to support the comments of johnsilver and the rabbi. The media has done an abysmal job of informing the public, before the fact, and their coverage has been incredibly lopsided. Why in the world do we hear so little about South & Central America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and so much about the Middle East. A day doesn’t go by without two discussions on NPR featuring someone (an expert or a victim) from Iran, Iraq or Palestine. Is there no life in New Zealand, Australia, Argentina, Vietnam, Chad… It’s beyond belief!
How can a world view of economic leadership be contemplated? How… because a journalist wrote about it.

By: Daniel Wagner

Daniel Wagner — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:57:22 +0000

I think the piece would have been more powerful if it paid more attention to the inevitable link between politics and economics, and offered prescriptions for how a new ‘financial regulatory architecture’ might be achieved.

For example, breaking the WWII-era mold of having an American at the helm of the World Bank, a European as the head of the IMF, and the victors of WWII as the only permanent members of the UN Security Council might send a message to the developing world that they have more say in their own destiny, and that of others.

Clearly, an economic crisis of this magnitude requires ‘out of the box’ thinking. Throwing conventional solutions at an unconventional problem isn’t going to help us get out of this mess we’re in, nor will it assist in reducing political risk.

Surely, part of the answer is engagement with the Chindia’s of the world, which would offer them a greater incentive to be part of the solution…

By: Rabbi Nini-us

Rabbi Nini-us — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:49:15 +0000

I agree with “johnsilver” who wondered whether this is an analysis or a brief description of the current situation and an extrapolation to 2009.

Many of us, I am sure, have been asking ourselves why there are no more genuine thinkers in our era? Is it the schools, the Universities, the super facilities that life is amply providing us, resulting in a real cerebral lay back? Perhaps a combination of the above.

Moreover, I think that provocative questions are not being asked today, particularly in anglo-saxon societies, as the person who asks might be considered “politically incorrect”. What is this business with “p.c.” and “non p.c.”? I think that societies need not be prudish to avoid asking questions. I think youth should not consider themselves castrated to avoid asking questions. Make no mistake: questions will be asked and answered. And, at the end, let me ask: what is politically correct and who considers it to be correct or not?

As tons of ink will be shed to answer this question, let me try to be provocative and to watch possible reactions of your readers, lest we see someone being a true and genuine thinker:

I wonder what the author has to say about the Palestinians, who have been throwing rockets against Israelis for years now. When they were throwing rockets, or, strapped with bombs, were killing innocent kids right in the middle of a shopping mall, I did not hear any torrential arguments against killing innocent civilians. Why? But because they were Israelis.

Now that the Israeli armed forces are doing their duty to stop those murderers in Gaza, the whole world is up in arms against Israel. Why such hatred against one country? Why such double standards? Either we’ve all gone mad, or we are all blind.

What would the author say about the possibility to transfer the battleground from Gaza and West Bank to London or New York?

By: Max Castelli

Max Castelli — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 10:25:16 +0000

With regards to multilarism, I am not sure that the UK will oppose an enhanced role of the IMF (Do you remember Mr brown touring the Gulf a few months ago asking for more funds to be given to the IMF?). I believe that China will have to take the lead together with the US. China and US are increasingly interconnected (China buying US Treasuries increasingly issued by the US to revitalize its economy and in exchange Chinese exports can restart). It might well be that as a result of the crisis the US will finally decide to drop containement of China and engage fully in order to take the global economy out of the crisis.

By: Dr. Asatiani J.

Dr. Asatiani J. — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 09:20:57 +0000

Dear Mr. Keat, would you kindly consider introducing “RISK BAROMETER” complimenting your entries and showing vigor of dynamics, as well as permiting the reader better comparative assesments…

By: johnsilver

johnsilver — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 08:11:55 +0000

Is this analysis? Not more than a brief description of current situation and its further extrapolation for 2009. The same is related to Eurasia’s “Top 10 risks of 2009” – just a description and interpretation of current situation. As to the facts, it seems like authors of the have never been to those countries they mentioned in the report, and the whole report is mostly based on the newspaper articles and the common view about particular countries that is far from the reality. It is a peaty but today many names have significantly devaluated: starting from rating agencies and auditors and to the consulters etc.

Looking for emerging new thinkers that will bring new ideas needed today, but not just descriptions called analysis and forecasts…

By: Eric Hands

Eric Hands — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 07:25:05 +0000

The leadership is here and is what it is and will become. As Popeye said, “I yam what I yam.” Olive Oil approved. As Roosevelt High School (Teddy and not FDR) inSeattle has as its motto, “You are to be what you are now becoming.” This motto was formulated in the early 1920s and has worked for each generation since. Your leaders are here right now and are working diligently. we do not need Anderson Cooper or any other talking head to tell us whom these leaders are. They are you and/or your neighbors and colleagues.

By: The emerging markets investor

The emerging markets investor — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:05:25 +0000

[...] Brace yourself: Political-market risks in 2009 (Reuters): There are a number of macro risks that will continue to grab headlines in 2009, including the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, cross-border tensions and state instability in Pakistan, and Iran’s  ongoing quest to develop advanced nuclear technologies. [...]

By: mike bushore

mike bushore — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 03:00:11 +0000

A very interesting overview of some of the complexities that have, and will emerge. I agree with Anton, whilst the points made are valid, we simply lack a cohesive leadership framework (not model) that equips next generation leaders - whether corporate or poltical - to lead the next generation of globalization in many meaningful manner. With so many failed leaders, with so many impaired countries, and with so many distressed companies, which attributes, what framework will be required in the future? What will be required of leaders to ’sit at an expanded table?” May I suggest that as much as this entire global crisis has been billed as first a financial one, then an economic one, it is now clearly becoming a leadership one. Who will lead in the future, and by what means?

By: AustrianSchool

AustrianSchool — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 02:58:16 +0000

Instead of trying to “manage global economies”, why don’t you suggest that the governments and privately owned Central Banks (such as FED) should get their hands out of free market functioning. Nobody can manage a country’s economy, let alone the whole world, although we all know that some want to very much.