– Bernd Debusmann is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –
What do Pakistan and Mexico have in common? They figure in the nightmares of U.S. military planners trying to peer into the future and identify the next big threats.
The two countries are mentioned in the same breath in a just-published study by the United States Joint Forces Command, whose jobs include providing an annual look into the future to prevent the U.S. military from being caught off guard by unexpected developments.
“In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” says the study - Joint Operating Environment 2008 - in a chapter on “weak and failing states.” Such states, it says, usually pose chronic, long-term problems that can be managed over time.
But the little-studied phenomenon of “rapid collapse,” according to the study, “usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems.” Think Yugoslavia and its 1990 disintegration into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities and bloodshed on a horrific scale.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, where al-Qaeda has established safe havens in the rugged regions bordering on Afghanistan, is a regular feature in dire warnings. Thomas Fingar, who retired as the U.S.’s chief intelligence analyst in December, termed Pakistan “one of the single most challenging places on the planet.”
This is fairly routine language for Pakistan, but not for Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile border with the 
United States.
Mexico’s mention beside Pakistan in a study by an organization as weighty as the Joint Forces Command (which controls almost all conventional forces based in the continental U.S.) speaks volumes about growing concern over what’s happening south of the U.S. border.
Vicious and widening violence pitting drug cartels against each other and against the Mexican state have left more than 8,000 Mexicans dead over the past two years. Kidnappings have become a routine part of Mexican daily life. Common crime is widespread. Pervasive corruption has hollowed out the state.
In November, in a case that shocked even those (on both sides of the border) who consider corruption endemic in Mexico, former drug czar Noe Ramirez was charged with accepting at least $450,000 a month in bribes from a drug cartel in exchange for information about police and anti-narcotics operations.
A month later, a Mexican army major, Arturo Gonzalez, was arrested on suspicion he sold information about President Felipe Calderon’s movements for $100,000 a month. Gonzalez belonged to a special unit responsible for protecting the president.
DESCENT INTO CHAOS?
Depending on one’s view, the arrests are successes in a publicly-declared anti-corruption drive or evidence of how deeply criminal mafias have penetrated the organs of the state.
According to the Joint Forces study, the possibility of a sudden collapse in Mexico is less likely than in Pakistan “but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state.”
It added: “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
What form such a response might take is anyone’s guess and the study does not spell it out, nor does it address the economic implications of its worst-case scenario. Mexico is the third biggest trade partner of the United States (after Canada and China) and its third-biggest supplier of oil (after Canada and Saudi Arabia).
No such ties bind the United States and Pakistan but the study sees a collapse there not only as more likely but also as more catastrophic.
It would bring “the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That ‘perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger … and with the real possibility that nuclear weapons might be used.”
It is not clear where on the long list of actual and potential crises around the world Mexico and Pakistan will rank once Barack Obama takes office as U.S. president on Jan. 20. During the election campaign, Obama repeatedly criticized Pakistan for not cracking down hard enough on terrorists inside its borders.
Since then a new Pakistani president came to power. Not long after, tensions between Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power, rose sharply after gunmen attacked two luxury hotels and other sites in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, and killed 179 people. India described the attack as a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and carried out by Pakistanis.
Closer to home, the U.S. economic crisis looks likely to slow down a $1.4 billion assistance program (military equipment, training, technology) to help the Mexican government gain the upper hand over the drug cartels and re-establish control over what some have called “failed cities” along the border, places where shootouts, beheadings and kidnappings have become routine.
It would take a very rosy outlook on the future to expect rapid progress.
For previous columns by Bernd Debusmann, click here. You can contact the author at Debusmann@reuters.com.
The real shame here lies with the citizens of the United States. As the consumers of illegal drugs, we feed the drug cartels that have gutted Mexico's government. The best thing America can do to bolster our economy and protect our national security, is work on our own drug addiction.
Trackback
116 comments so far
Previous | 6 … | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | Next
In addition, I think the US Government should be worried about controling all the weapons that are sold to Mexican Drug Cartels in the USA or by people from the nation. As Preseident Calderon mentioned to Bush in his last visit, Mexico is fighthing a war against the drug cartels and is paying with the lives of its citizens, soldiers, policemen, etc. Certainly, it is sad to see how far corruption has gone in Mexico, but it is not exclusive. Stop buying drugs, stop making drugs a great business and no one will have interest on selling them!
I think both Pakistan and Mexico are exegeratted problems being camouflaged to justify another possible military expedition in search of more resources for the monster that is USA, in my considered view actually USA is the country which is failing to maintain a balance in its needs versus resources. Both Mexico and Pakistan are having general mis-governance problems imparted by inside factors in case of Mexico and inside plus outside factors in case of Pakistan. Firstly Pakistan is missing a deligent and effective government which is willing to work for the betterment of its common people. Secondly Kashmir issue is the only problem that has kept Pakistan and India standing against eachother as rivals it need to be resolved on urgent basis. Thirdly the militant force that was cultivated and nurtured by USA on soils of pakistan to be used against USSR is now left deserted All aids suddenly stopped after USA got its objectives is now creating choas within pakistan it has to be aided and directed towards something positive through education and facilities. The fourth concern Nuclear Weapons, and pakistan may not be a Nuclear power if India didnt incite it to and even now if first Pakistan’s Biggest Rival India rolls back its Nuclear Program first Pakistan wont have any problem rolling it back after India because the technology was developed as consequence of continued rivality and threats from India which of course are due the conflict of Kashmir. Hope this explains the situation and helps seeing the positive and peaceful way of doing things instead of thinking of another bloodshed another military expedition which might be the last of for USA.
I live in Mexico (along with a million and a half other Americans) and am astounded at the malicious ignorance found in this outrageous editorial. The writer should be ashamed of himself for two reasons: (1) for knowing as little as he does about Mexico and (2) for writing pure, deliberately destructive fiction to make an editorial buck.
Hey Jimbo. I almost totally agree with you. Scary! I think we need to deal with the supply side, though. The Supply needs to come from a legal source. And, not all users of the illegal drugs are “addicts” just like not all users of legal drugs are “addicts.” That’s just all those radical fundamentalists demonizing a group of people so they feel good about treating them like they deserve their lives destroyed.
The US needs to really worry about Canada…. They are just biding their time and will soon take over the world!
I concerned to see that the SMURFS have yet to be identified as a potential strategic threat to US Interests. Everyone knows the Smurfy malcontents are bent on the destruction of Intellectual Freedoms, Civil Liberty and the American Way of Life or wait a minute that would be the USA PATRIOT ACT.
Sorry Bernd, turns out the Smurfs are no threat at all and the biggest threat to the United States is its internal management problems that are decaying its legal infrastructure….though I suspect the Smurfs are behind it, especially that Brainy Smurf, you know he can’t be trusted…
Happy New Year from NICE FRANCE Reuters Crew!
Legalization/regulation/taxation of the illegal drugs currently funding the Mexican drug cartels is the best method to undermine the cartels (unless you’re delusional enough to think military occupation of Mexico is a better idea. *shudder*) By doing so, you remove the profit motive for drug smuggling and remove the cartels’ primary source of revenue.
Additionally, by regulating production of these drugs, you will increase the quality and safety of the product for the American consumers. By taxing the sale of these products, America would collect a large amount of new tax revenue, as opposed to the huge line item cost of the current impotent “war on drugs”.
Drugs is such a powerfull business there is no way it can be stoped by agression. For each victim there is another one willing to take its place, no matter the risk.
Drug users buy they drugs here so we can not said that US is more competent than supplier countries in stoping this iligal activity.
The only way to end this war is by cutting the profit margin. Ideas like the one posted by Terry Kindle most be taken seriously.
The solution to the problem in Mexico is to legalize drugs in the US. Take the profit out of illegal narcotics and the problems will disappear for both countries.
The common thread that runs through Mexico and Pakistan is Drug trafficking.Huge Profits are generated by these Criminal networks and these like Cancer have corrupted all Institutions.In Pakistan Drug Barons have coopted Religion to increase the potency of the Cocktail.Murderers are preaching sermons in Pakistan a country now fully controlled by the 3M Corporation - Militant,Mullah and Military in an unholy nexus.Pakistan is receiving massive Western aid which never reaches the people but is siphoned off by the Establishment.For 20 Years Pakistan used proxy Militant Groups set up by it to infiltrate and create violence in neighbouring Afghanistan and India,continuing even today.
If Global leaders continue in slumber and do not take out Pakistan’s Nuclear Assets today the Price to be paid from this danger will be Humongous.This is the only way Pakistan can be saved and the neighbourhood protected.
The time to ACT is NOW,tomorrow we may be DEAD !!!
Descending into chaos?
Mexico has always been unbelievably corrupt and has had at best marginal leadership. The sliding economy only brings this under a more direct light. The Mexican style of doing business is well known in central Phoenix where kidnapping and extortion are becoming more common ways of obtaining income.
The 2 real problems are America’s ‘war on drugs’ that empowers the cartels and the Mexican governments complete ineffectiveness. We should stop the one and stomp on the lawlessness that spills into the US from over the boarder.
A great article, as usual.
I’d just like to point out, however, that a large part of the value in these “Great Debate” articles is the comments that readers post. The problem is that the more interest that’s shown, the more comments that are posted, the harder it is to sort through them all. That becomes a disincentive to add an additional post. Not all of the posts are great, but many pretty good, some great. I think that if is truly to be a “Great Debate,” the structure for comments needs to evolve somewhat. Picking out the “Best Comment” is a step in the right direction, but it doesn’t go that far. It’s not that The Economist does it any better, but Reuters could do more here. Don’t you think?
This editorial is still here?? When will Reuters move on to an editorial that is well researched and acurate? This one certainly did not meet that definition. Looking forward to news and editorial content from Reuters that is timely, accurate and useful
From the above article I can easily infer the direction being taken by Washington and the partiality of the views show that the facts of history, reality and practicality are totally taken out of the picture to portray the nature and subsequently foreign policy of the US in the above commentary.
- Obama/Bush/US want’s us Pakistani’s to put more effort in fighting Extremists?
My View: As a third world country, already struggling with keeping up with our basic demands as a nation, how would you expect us eradicate a system (completely) whom the US and all its allies are unable to control in Afghanistan/Iraq and the rest of the world, even with the relentless and inhuman slaughter of masses labeled under the so-called collateral damage dogma.
Secondly since the war on terror started, more than 1,000 Pakistani soldiers have been killed and scores injured and abducted by these guerilla fighters in the FATA region along the Pakistani border. We as Pakistani’s have been pushed into this “So called War”, which in-turn inflicted strategic, human, economic and all sorts of casualties on Pakistan and its people, all for a cause which might not be as intense as shown. There are more terrorists today in the world then there were when this whole war drama started. Anyways, I’ll list the two main damaging factors to Pakistan’s economy as,
- Reversing of flow of investments
- Damaged the fabric of ethnic/cultural harmony among the different parts of Pakistan (but not beyond repair)
Considering all this, we are still asked to do extra… what should we do that the US has done in Iraq, Afghanistan. I bet there is no answer, it is just blackmailing through words. Reality is different from what is on the ground, bombs are not the solution, the solution to this is very simple but due to personal interests nobody wants to discuss them.
- If nuclear weapons are in safe hands?
I think right now the biggest threat to humanity should be WMD in possession of israel. I will praise the government of Pakistan for taking the initiative to build nuclear weapons, as in today’s world having a stick in your hand is the only thing which can assure you that you are not going to be bitten by a dog. Only if Palastine would have had proper army and weapons to defend itself, then nobody would have dared to entered Palestine but as israel/us know that the Palestinians are helpless and unarmed so considering this the israel is butchering these poor people like insects.
As far as our nuke’s are concerned, we have a very stable and concrete structure in place (you don’t want to discuss that) to safeguard our nuclear installations. Also nuke’s are not like AK-47, which can be easily snatched and used… its a bit more complex then that and the extremists dont, and can’t have the capability to learn how to use them, otherwise they would have gotten something in their hands from the broken russian states which had stashes of WMD during the formation of independent states.
Also i’ve lived in Pakistan for almost 28 years and i KNOW that the so called fundamentals and their super human capabilities “as portrayed by the west” is just a myth. These people are actually poor people, who have been either exploited or pushed due to the conditions imposed by war in the home grounds for fighting for a cause which in some instances may contradict to the common sense of an ordinary man. History has been evident to the fact that in extreme circumstances men have opted to take extreme steps which might not be understood without taking history in context. I will corelate the same scenario with the the situation in the tribal/FATA region where children have been killed, whole schools destroyed and family members killed in the name of collateral damage.
I don’t agree with the tactics employed by these people, but let me tell you that internally Pakistani society has a very strong synergy and it can easily be replaced by taking some small steps with their results being reflected over a period of time.
I still have a lot to say and a lot to do… and hopefully i’ll definitely contribute on this topic more in future debates, as nobody want’s peace more badly then the people of Pakistan.
here what seems the main problem around the world is interference of US in external matters. Until US stops poking its nose in external affairs and try to control his own problems that is happening within the country the world problems will not com to an end. It is a game which US is playing making all the nations fight against each other ann watching the show alone.
I pity US !!!
I agree with Mr.Kumar Sajan’s thought, but first they UN control forces should strike Indian occupied Kashmir where 700 thousand troops daily killing innocents civilians and raping women because they are not willing to leave under Indian flag.
I dont know about Mexico. They are at least one nation. If anyone looks at the history of the creation of Pakistan on the other hand, they are not even one nation. For the past sixty since the establishment of the country by the clueless British, the people of the country have been at odds with each other. This is clear from the endless ethnic animosities and liberation movements in three of the four provinces of the country. This is a fact that can be checked by a basic online research. The country has so far been kept intact by its army who have also ruled directly or indirectly since 1950s. Later on, the army also nurtured the Islamic militia to control Afghanistan and create troubles for India in the disputed region of Kashmir. Today, with growing reaction to the Islamic extremists, the army is at the backfoot in a defensive mode, a countrywide chaos has set in, the economy has crumbled and both the US and India are gradually but certainly violating the geographic integrity and sovereignity of this failed state. If the Americans are interested in fixing the problem of Pakistan, they should do the people of Pakistan a favor by spliting this phony state along ethnic lines and wrapping up the dangerous nuclear weapons it holds. Mexico being an American backyard probably has a problem of effective governance which can be fixed over time.
There is a credible solution to demolishing terror groups/ camps. Set up a multi-national ARMED COMMANDO FORCE (ACF), well armed and equipped to respond for attack anywhere in the world, duly authorized by the UNO to take their war across borders of any country on the globe. This ACF should be led by a team of military representatives of the permanent members of the UN Security Council, taking their own decisions and being answerable to none of the political leaderships of those member countries.
Can be done. Will be supported by all civilized countries.
Practice (also) makes an art perfect.
When the “art” of “suicide bombings” started, no-one could have imagined that the “art” of suicide bombing can take the form it took on doomed day of 9/11.
In Mumbai, we saw a new art being born .. an art of gunman attack .. Unless all the related terrorist organizations are uprooted completely and immediately, no one can be sure what form would this art take upon maturity and which part of the world would it strike!
As White House homeland security adviser Ken Wainstein said, even U.S. is vulnerable to such type of attack. The problem of terrorism is as huge as the current economic crisis or global warming and should be tackled with equal international cooperation and commitment.
United States is a coward nation and keep mis handling world affairs, when Bombay attach took placed within 48 hours UN security council passed the bill for ban of one charity institution in Pakistan, Israel killed one thousands innocent childred,women and old man the same United States is not allowing UN security council to adapt a ceased fire resolution. What a great nation called United Sates of America.