– Bernd Debusmann is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –
What do Pakistan and Mexico have in common? They figure in the nightmares of U.S. military planners trying to peer into the future and identify the next big threats.
The two countries are mentioned in the same breath in a just-published study by the United States Joint Forces Command, whose jobs include providing an annual look into the future to prevent the U.S. military from being caught off guard by unexpected developments.
“In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” says the study - Joint Operating Environment 2008 - in a chapter on “weak and failing states.” Such states, it says, usually pose chronic, long-term problems that can be managed over time.
But the little-studied phenomenon of “rapid collapse,” according to the study, “usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems.” Think Yugoslavia and its 1990 disintegration into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities and bloodshed on a horrific scale.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, where al-Qaeda has established safe havens in the rugged regions bordering on Afghanistan, is a regular feature in dire warnings. Thomas Fingar, who retired as the U.S.’s chief intelligence analyst in December, termed Pakistan “one of the single most challenging places on the planet.”
This is fairly routine language for Pakistan, but not for Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile border with the 
United States.
Mexico’s mention beside Pakistan in a study by an organization as weighty as the Joint Forces Command (which controls almost all conventional forces based in the continental U.S.) speaks volumes about growing concern over what’s happening south of the U.S. border.
Vicious and widening violence pitting drug cartels against each other and against the Mexican state have left more than 8,000 Mexicans dead over the past two years. Kidnappings have become a routine part of Mexican daily life. Common crime is widespread. Pervasive corruption has hollowed out the state.
In November, in a case that shocked even those (on both sides of the border) who consider corruption endemic in Mexico, former drug czar Noe Ramirez was charged with accepting at least $450,000 a month in bribes from a drug cartel in exchange for information about police and anti-narcotics operations.
A month later, a Mexican army major, Arturo Gonzalez, was arrested on suspicion he sold information about President Felipe Calderon’s movements for $100,000 a month. Gonzalez belonged to a special unit responsible for protecting the president.
DESCENT INTO CHAOS?
Depending on one’s view, the arrests are successes in a publicly-declared anti-corruption drive or evidence of how deeply criminal mafias have penetrated the organs of the state.
According to the Joint Forces study, the possibility of a sudden collapse in Mexico is less likely than in Pakistan “but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state.”
It added: “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
What form such a response might take is anyone’s guess and the study does not spell it out, nor does it address the economic implications of its worst-case scenario. Mexico is the third biggest trade partner of the United States (after Canada and China) and its third-biggest supplier of oil (after Canada and Saudi Arabia).
No such ties bind the United States and Pakistan but the study sees a collapse there not only as more likely but also as more catastrophic.
It would bring “the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That ‘perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger … and with the real possibility that nuclear weapons might be used.”
It is not clear where on the long list of actual and potential crises around the world Mexico and Pakistan will rank once Barack Obama takes office as U.S. president on Jan. 20. During the election campaign, Obama repeatedly criticized Pakistan for not cracking down hard enough on terrorists inside its borders.
Since then a new Pakistani president came to power. Not long after, tensions between Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power, rose sharply after gunmen attacked two luxury hotels and other sites in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, and killed 179 people. India described the attack as a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and carried out by Pakistanis.
Closer to home, the U.S. economic crisis looks likely to slow down a $1.4 billion assistance program (military equipment, training, technology) to help the Mexican government gain the upper hand over the drug cartels and re-establish control over what some have called “failed cities” along the border, places where shootouts, beheadings and kidnappings have become routine.
It would take a very rosy outlook on the future to expect rapid progress.
For previous columns by Bernd Debusmann, click here. You can contact the author at Debusmann@reuters.com.
The real shame here lies with the citizens of the United States. As the consumers of illegal drugs, we feed the drug cartels that have gutted Mexico's government. The best thing America can do to bolster our economy and protect our national security, is work on our own drug addiction.
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Well I would suggest also looking at the friend to the north. In just one province alone the illegal drug business is an 8 billion dollar a year industry. Larger than both lumber and fishing combined. Organized crime from a round the world launder the proceeds of their criminal activities though real estate and all that heroin from Afghanistan can you tell me what West Coast Ports is it mostly transshipped through? Don’t think that it’s the ones south of the boarder.
Pakistan, a 160 million strong muslim nation armed with nuclear weapons. Pakistanis are honest and hard working. No doubt, Pkaistan has faced many crises, today its facing many challenges and problems like any other countries in the world. But no, this is certainly not a banana republis. NO Pakistan will never descent into chaos. Pakistnis will always pull themselves together and make come backs after every setback. Let it be assured, Paksitan will stay united. Yes, there is a need fo rintrospection, and also lot of hardwork to sort our house, but I am fully confident Pakistan will emerge stronger and sustain all the pressures.
LONG LIVE PAKISATN!
Pakistan is on brink of economic collapse. The administration and the people live in a state of denial. They do not have any industries. A vast majority of the population is illliterate, there is no scientific mind set among the people. The reason for this their past governments , who had no vision for future of Pakistani people and country as a whole. Each administration was better than the previous administration in only one thing- corruption.
The money comes in to Pakistan only as aid and loan and from hardworking Pakistanis overseas. There are no internal accruals.
The world as a whole and Pakistanis should take a careful look at themselves and realize that Nuclear arms(the technology and parts for which was smuggled) is not going to take them anywhere. There was time when China was equal or worst in development and standard of living than Pakistan. Look where China is now and where is Pakistan. However, the world can just sit and watch and protect itself from Pakistan.
Only god can help Pakistan.
But god has clearly stated that he is willing to help only those who are willing to help themselves.
With all due respect, please go to Mexico for a month or 2 outside the gringo resort and then write editorial. This report is a total nonsense as far as Mexico is concerned.I know Mexico over the last 30 years and there are a lot of positive changes there over the last 10+ years (i.e. growing middle class etc). one more thing stop watching CNN and stop reading failing newspapers like LA Times. GO AND SEE YOURSELF!
Just returned from Mexico….
Marek
Pakistan or for that matter any country needs a revolution or a revolutionist to bring change in general way of perception, thinking and giving direction to the nation and its people.
Pakistan for that matter needs a man who has vision and heart of ata turk.
close the mosques, kill the mullas, punish the guilty, change the education system and wait, everything will fall in place.
But pakistan is a haven of all the silt in the world worried about apathy of muslims, fed by petro/ narcotic fund. this fund reaches to the president too who himself is a big rougue and cheat and might be behind his wifes murder. U NEVER KNOW…
Mr Tariq Shah - you seem to be totally out of your mind blaming India and US for whats happening to Pakistan! Pakistan got what it deserves and is heading towards a total collapse. Do they still know who killed Benazir Bhutto and was there any action taken?
What’s happening in Mexico is a teddy bear’s picnic compared to Pakistan.
To those in a state of denial about Pakistan, one only needs to look at Pakistan’s tattered economy and the march of the Islamists. Peshawar has fallen. Islamabad is next.
It’s time the world community acted against this failed State.
Since the movie Traffic we know what is really going on.
Q: al-Qaeda - Who Are They ?
Ans: Terrors and None State Peoples
Q: Are They True Muslims ?
Ans: No. They Just Put Face Of Muslims and Truth Behind It They Even Not Know About Islam Word, They Are None Muslims.
Q: Osama-Bin-Ladin / Al-Zawahri, Who are They ?
Ans : None Muslims. Osama Who Was Putout From Saudi because of giving the extremist Studies to make peoples None Muslim And To Teach Them About Terror Study. Al-Zawahri who was Kick Out From Miser, And Was None Muslims For What He Kicked Out Because He Was Doing Same Thing As Of Osama-Bin-ladin.
Q: Who Create Him ? How They Come Power Full ?
Ans : Americans Create Them To Kick out Russians From Afghanistan’s By The Help Of Pakistani Army Chief Ziya-Ul-Haq In 1980+ to 1990-. Ziya-Ul-Haq Was Terrorist Person and a person of America Actually, Peoples Of Pakistan Even Don’t Want To See Him As President Of Pakistan, But He Killed Too Much Peoples In Pakistan Who Was Against Him, And He Killed a Big World Lieder And Father Of Banazir Bhutto , Zufiqar Ali Bhutto. He Create Those Talibans and Al-Quida Peoples and Put the in the Border Of Afghan and pakistan By The Help Of Americans. Now The Same Talibans And Al-Quida Is Attacking On Americans as Well In Pakistani Peoples.
Q: Is Pakistan Safe Place?
Ans: Yes, Pakistan is a safe place peoples know better who come in pakistan from other countries. Just few place of Border Attached With Afghan are some Terror Hide There.And Pakistan Forces are Doing Operation Against Them In Border Areas To Finish Them Up To Make World Clean And Peace Full.
Q: Who Is Supporting Taliban, Al-Quida In Border Area Of Pak Afghan And In Balochistan - And From Where They Are Getting Huge Weapons and Money ?
Ans: Indians Army , Peoples , And Gov is Supporting Them To Make Pakistan Unstablished Country. There are many Indian Agents Hiding in Pakistan and helping those terrors who are attacking in Pakistani Peoples as well support Those Talibans and Al-Quida Peoples. Just Like Recent Attack In Mumbai, Where Directly There Gov and Army and Few Hindu Extremist Peoples did that.
Q: Who Is Ajmal Kasab ?
Ans: An Agent Of Indian , Who was leaving in Pakistan From Long Time as Muslims, Truth is he is an Hindu, he involve in many attacks within Pakistan, Then Indian Find Way To Ask Him To Attack In Mumbai Taj Hotel so Indians can Put World Prasher In Pakistan And To Make Pakistan Unstablished. Here is The Point, All 10 Terror Of Mumbai Attack Where Killed Then Why Not Ajmal Kasab ? Because Army Peoples Give him Full Authority To Kill As Many Peoples In Hotel As He Can, Like 64 Muslims Die In Mumbai Attack and Other where Hindu. And Later On Gov, And Army Of Indians Give Him Safe Way , And Arrest Him. Now Using Same Person they are trying to show he is an Pakistan and pakistan is involve in Mumbai Attacks, Well He Was Leaving In Pakistan From Long Time As Agent Of Indians to attack in Pakistan Place.
Q: How to Come Peace In World ?
Ans:
1. Indian Stop Helping Talibans and Al-Quida In Border areas of Pak Afghan.
2. Indian Stop Killing Innocent Peoples In Kashmir Like Israeli Doing In Gaza.
3.Israeli Stop Attacking In Gaza Innocent Small Small Child’s and leave place that they grabbed of Palestinians.
Americans Stop Attack In Iraq.
4.World Fully Help Pakistan To Fight Against Talibans and Al-Quida Who are Power full With The Help Of Indians.
Pakistan: Now and Always. And will be Peace full Country Soon When Indians Stop Doing Support of Talibans.
Pakistan is paradise of talibanis and other terririst outfits. Th govement just exist there but the paralle goverment is run there by talibanis. Those are prroved facts.There are top officials in pak military who sometimes openly or sometimes indirectly supports Talibaan, Lashkar as well as other terroroist outfits.
In fact Pakistan wanted to be a capital of muslim terrorism and then further wanted to lead the muslim population countries. That is why they are not only supporting the the terrorism but also providing there youths to be trained and and those training camps will be assisted by pakistani military and ISI the intelligence.
Pakistan is a real threat.
The problem is with divide and rule policy of Mohammed Ali Jinnah dating back to 1940s.He was the source of breaking sub continent into many smaller states.In every home there would exist a problem,but the solution is not parting.Well,any religion,for that case,say it Islam never preaches violance.It is the mission carried out by some absolute crooks in the name of religion,nation and et al.Unfortunatly India’s(Citezens) lukewarm spirit and complacency is the dvantage of Pakisthan.I appreciate,there are leaders like Benerzir bhutto were there and leaders like Imran Khan are still there.But unfortunatly,this desert called Pakisthan is dominated by psychologically ill people.Destruction,chaos,or economy slump will not be done in the name of Allah.No Allahs had ever creid at you to kill other and die yourself.these terrorists are basically,lazy,drugged,even if they are educated(Only degree wise but not wisdom) weak,impotent(afraid to face reality) unfortunate creatures.Who gave rights to kill other.Why do u bombard America,India,Israel.What pupose you achive.Straight question to Pakisthan,your an fastly growing Afghanisthan,remember this.One more straight question to USA,your filled with fake,brainless,selfish policy makers,why? You give billions to Pak?Is that to meet your needs? In return they aim at India.God Bless America,10 years back when Kashmir was filled with terrorist,u always say peace,once they started bombarding you,you started occupying them.Look u big brother,while it was a plantling,you failed to amputate,now to sooth it,you send F15 and 16s and pay huge ransoms,Brother America,remember,it wil attack you some day they way usually do at India.That waould be the time,for your judgment day,you would feel shame for grooming it.Error!, any one for that sake India or pak or US,lets take charge of them.There are muslim nations like Malaysia,Indon,Brunai such nice loving nations .NO GOD asked to kill other.You America stop funding that Pakisthan,insted build,universities,schools(not Madrasas),hospitals,preach them love of Jesus.But do not pump money,b’coz still they are like prodigal sons.They are not in the right hands,they are with out their willingness in the hands of Dawoods,osamas.Lots of good civilians do exist in Pakisthan,God Bless Pakisthan,so that he may lead this nation from darkness to light.
Pakistan is going through really tough and challenging phase owing to some internal and external factors/stakeholders. We need to work together as a nation to take our beloved country out of this difficult and testing time. This challenging environment will only make us a stronger nation at the end!
Thanks Mr. Debusmann for talking on how stupid and corrupt are federal officials in Mexico; I like you also mention how federal government is infiltrated by drug cartels just on the top. The real shame is many mexicans are proud of Mr. Calderon’s mediatic campaign on the war against drugs… they must be who voted his party (it’s victory on election is totally unclear, but they have lots of money to support their causes and to bribe other officials). Indeed Mexico will collapse if no action is taken against the real criminals: our so called president and his neoliberal policies.
If I was “king” of Mexico I would legalize drugs and go into the business of buying drugs from any and all sellers. Then in turn I would offer the USA the option to buy the same drugs from Mexico (plus a small handling charge, or course), with any drugs not purchased by the USA to be sold at auction to export companies and provided to domestic addict service outlets.
This would limit the corrupting influence of drugs in Mexico and force the US to reform its approach.
People,
Legalizing drugs - all drugs - would do more to end crime, corruption, agony and pain than billions of dollars, troops, planes, and a thousand new prisons. After all, the most powerful drug of all is legal - and that’s alcohol. People drive cars on it, fight, scream, abuse, kill, participate in the full range of negative behavior - People on heroine sit there and stare - don’t drive, can’t fight, and slowly fade away.
Legalize drubs and organized crime will collapse.
The problem is India not Pakistan, India is busy killing thousands of Kashmiris, there are over 30 independant insurgencies going on in India and it is India likely to collpase like Yugoslavia as it is grossly mismanaged and bound together by very delicate nationalist fibers, north india has nothing in common with South india, same as in East and West India, India is a lot of nations forced to live together.
India has thousands of dialects and dozens of languages, it has hundreds of gods and thousands of religious affiliations, Pakistan under Islamic religion has one God and one faith, it is less likely to perish than India.
Pakistan also has over 200 Nuclear Weapons, and has one the most advanced and most formidable army on this side of the world. The people are motivated not by drug money as in mexico but by faith and the love of their religion.
The dooms sayers of Pakistan have spoken about it for decades and yet Pakistan continues to become stronger and stronger, it is the wish of the US to create a false flag operation so it could get its Nukes because a Muslim nation with Nukes pinches the Hindus, jews and Christians alike, but the reality is, that there are limited to no options.
US needs to stop using nations like Afghanistan and Pakistan against the USSR as they did once, and fix its pro fascist israeli policies, its bad foreign policies are what is Americas biggest enemy and should keep it up, not if Pakistan or Mexico are going down.
These are just excuses for the US to continue its war mongering and feeding its offense industries, please stop your evil, and you wont have nothing to worry about.
pakistan, ooh ! nothing creative, all distructive people there, and now see, they fire the govt official who accepted the terrorist who did attack on mumbai is pakistani…they know how to play dirty games all the time…
Oh again i am saying America realise one day when pakistani’s will attack somewhere in usa.
Pakistan in worse than Afghanistan.
As some said before, the biggest problem with drug cartels in Mexico is the impressive level of consumption in the US, and the ineffectivness of American authorities in prosecueting major druglords in it´s country. Adding to such inefectivness are the Border Authorities that are incredibly passive on arms smuggling south of the border.
What impresses me the most is that the study fails to realize the role the US has on Mexico’s War on Crime. And the level of ignorance saying that Mexico is in the brink of a Goverment breakdown. It seems they are trying to cover their lack of responsability in fighting drug cartels in their own territory.
For a long time the Mexican Goverment has been extremely vocal on the role the American authorities have to have erradicating consumption, yet, to Mexican eyes there seems to be some king of tolerance on the matter. For me, the study seems wholly irresposible and lacking.
Why blame USA?
Three million Bangladeshis were killed by Pakistani Army during 1971 East Pak and West Pak war. Mujib ur Rehman, the democratically elected Bangladeshi was jailed instead of being given PMs job of the combined state. The refugee problem was so overwhelming that India had to intervene to stop the genocide.
The Iran -Iraq (both muslim nations) war killed unknown number of millions.
More muslims were killed, in muslim countries BY MUSLIMS, in the last 50 years than by all other religions combined (killing them) in the last 1000 yrs. More terrorist related attacks are carried out by muslims (including sectarian-muslim vs. muslim) in muslim countries than all non muslim nations combined any given year last 5 yrs.
If there is a train accident in a muslim country the denial game sets in to blame USA, Israel, India or west. Well, the root cause is elsewhere not with Muslims, so muslims kill muslims, anyway.
Moderate muslim countries face perennial war with mullahs and their terrorist followers, all in the name of Islam. Iran wanted to save Islam so it continued war with Iraq for 8 yrs. Now its heart is bleeding because US is making ‘it a slave’. Iraqis should thank US for the freedom they are enjoying now.
A couple of weeks ago in Pakistan, Taliban passes a spine chilling decree for girls to marry only Taliban goons, not to attend schools and not to go to grocery store alone or else …. Well you know what they do, don’t you.
- stop existence in denial.
It was only more than a decade or so ago, when Pakistan’s north-western border was known for production and smuggling of drugs. The corruption and money that comes through such business, fuels all kinds of other problems. There was no real solution to the issue, till a much bigger issue arose in the same area.