– Bernd Debusmann is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –
What do Pakistan and Mexico have in common? They figure in the nightmares of U.S. military planners trying to peer into the future and identify the next big threats.
The two countries are mentioned in the same breath in a just-published study by the United States Joint Forces Command, whose jobs include providing an annual look into the future to prevent the U.S. military from being caught off guard by unexpected developments.
“In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” says the study - Joint Operating Environment 2008 - in a chapter on “weak and failing states.” Such states, it says, usually pose chronic, long-term problems that can be managed over time.
But the little-studied phenomenon of “rapid collapse,” according to the study, “usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems.” Think Yugoslavia and its 1990 disintegration into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities and bloodshed on a horrific scale.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, where al-Qaeda has established safe havens in the rugged regions bordering on Afghanistan, is a regular feature in dire warnings. Thomas Fingar, who retired as the U.S.’s chief intelligence analyst in December, termed Pakistan “one of the single most challenging places on the planet.”
This is fairly routine language for Pakistan, but not for Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile border with the 
United States.
Mexico’s mention beside Pakistan in a study by an organization as weighty as the Joint Forces Command (which controls almost all conventional forces based in the continental U.S.) speaks volumes about growing concern over what’s happening south of the U.S. border.
Vicious and widening violence pitting drug cartels against each other and against the Mexican state have left more than 8,000 Mexicans dead over the past two years. Kidnappings have become a routine part of Mexican daily life. Common crime is widespread. Pervasive corruption has hollowed out the state.
In November, in a case that shocked even those (on both sides of the border) who consider corruption endemic in Mexico, former drug czar Noe Ramirez was charged with accepting at least $450,000 a month in bribes from a drug cartel in exchange for information about police and anti-narcotics operations.
A month later, a Mexican army major, Arturo Gonzalez, was arrested on suspicion he sold information about President Felipe Calderon’s movements for $100,000 a month. Gonzalez belonged to a special unit responsible for protecting the president.
DESCENT INTO CHAOS?
Depending on one’s view, the arrests are successes in a publicly-declared anti-corruption drive or evidence of how deeply criminal mafias have penetrated the organs of the state.
According to the Joint Forces study, the possibility of a sudden collapse in Mexico is less likely than in Pakistan “but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state.”
It added: “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
What form such a response might take is anyone’s guess and the study does not spell it out, nor does it address the economic implications of its worst-case scenario. Mexico is the third biggest trade partner of the United States (after Canada and China) and its third-biggest supplier of oil (after Canada and Saudi Arabia).
No such ties bind the United States and Pakistan but the study sees a collapse there not only as more likely but also as more catastrophic.
It would bring “the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That ‘perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger … and with the real possibility that nuclear weapons might be used.”
It is not clear where on the long list of actual and potential crises around the world Mexico and Pakistan will rank once Barack Obama takes office as U.S. president on Jan. 20. During the election campaign, Obama repeatedly criticized Pakistan for not cracking down hard enough on terrorists inside its borders.
Since then a new Pakistani president came to power. Not long after, tensions between Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power, rose sharply after gunmen attacked two luxury hotels and other sites in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, and killed 179 people. India described the attack as a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and carried out by Pakistanis.
Closer to home, the U.S. economic crisis looks likely to slow down a $1.4 billion assistance program (military equipment, training, technology) to help the Mexican government gain the upper hand over the drug cartels and re-establish control over what some have called “failed cities” along the border, places where shootouts, beheadings and kidnappings have become routine.
It would take a very rosy outlook on the future to expect rapid progress.
For previous columns by Bernd Debusmann, click here. You can contact the author at Debusmann@reuters.com.
The real shame here lies with the citizens of the United States. As the consumers of illegal drugs, we feed the drug cartels that have gutted Mexico's government. The best thing America can do to bolster our economy and protect our national security, is work on our own drug addiction.
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[...] key policy issues, including reviews of NAFTA, US immigration policy, the Mérida Initiative, and security on both sides of the border. This last issue may be most prominent, as some US officials believe [...]
More than 90% of guns seized at the border or after raids and shootings in Mexico have been traced to the United States.
I read the story “Pakistan, Mexico and U.S. nightmares” well I want to talk about Pakistan.This country has been doing enough since the USSR(Russia)falls in 1979 in Afganisatn occuption an USA had trained,given military equipments and financial support to Pakistan to prepare Taliban forces to fight agains Russian.
Once Russia was defeated,US forgot the Pakistan and left it with those Talibans to govern in Afganisatan for decades.
In fact,now situation is Israiel,India and US wants to destroy Pakistan as this is the only nuclear power in Muslims countries and that’s what Israiel and US fears of that this can be used against them which is wrong.
Every country uses the policy of “use and throw” and US had used Pakistan for its own purposes against Russia and India,as India was allied to Russia before,and now it has discarded the Pakistan.
What is happening in Pakistan,its not Pakistanis but Afganisatani and other foreigners who came there to fight against US and other troops in the region,and all blame goes to Pakistan.
Pakistan is a peaceful country.
Prohibition is a mistake. While no one condones drug abuse, let’s face it. American’s do consume marijuana and cocaine. Many employers have ceased testing their employees because much to their chagrin, they have found some of their best employees do partake in the privacy of their own home, and remain productive, highly motivated employees. Consider this… When is the last time you heard of a university student dying from a marijuana overdose at a fraternity or sorority function? Never! When was the last time you walked the streets of any major metropolitan downtown area, and saw a marijuana or cocaine user lying in the gutter stinking and incoherent? Never! Ask ANY law enforcement official. When was the last time you were called to domestic disturbance scene where the family members were using marijuana versus alcohol. Ask any law enforcement official. Would you rather try to manage a crowd that is drinking or one that has been smoking marijuana? There is a reason organizations of law enforcement personnel have formed to petition the government to legalize or decriminalize marijuana. It’s because they deal with these people and know which drugs are the most dangerous, and because they know trying to enforce a law that a huge percentage of the population disagrees with, is a huge waste of time and energy that could be better used to fight crimes like theft, and assault.
Here’s what we need to do. Legalize and TAX. We need the money. Do you think the government could not go bankrupt? This drug war is costing us, when it could be paying us. Let’s quit being stupid about this.
The question is which corrupt policies benefit from edifying poverty, crime and unemployment? The so called War on Drugs is a “war on people.” It redirects billions of dollars of American dollars into the hands of agencies that only “treat the symptoms” and fund a military corporations.
It’s the same faulty, broken old model we have in our current medical system. It’s not really a health care system at all, it’s a disease management business.
Why would those getting all this money want to “address the root cause” when there is more power and profit in “managing the disease symptoms?”
Do you see the correlation between the disease management agenda and the current war management policy? It’s the same wrong-thinking, the same modus operandi.
We need to get behind the human cause of war, poverty and sickness so it can be cured . . . not just managed.
Example: It is a well published fact that plant-protein based diets, cost much less and vastly improve health. By legalizing Cannabis sativa (hemp)we will create jobs,feed people and reduce disease. The Hemp fiber is a proven superior source of building materials compared to to wood, yields a cloth superior to cotton and as a food source is rich in Omega-3s, protein and nutrients.
America needs more “producers.” We can create real income, new money, by allowing scientists and statesmen to write policy, instead of politicians.
Privatizing prisons, hiring more police and recruiting more young people for war is not a viable way to nurture peace, freedom and prosperity, for us or our neighbors.
Poor government management is promoting poverty, sickness and suffering of every kind . . . alcohol ruins more lives than illicit drugs, but it is a part of American business.
Properly prescribed pharmaceuticals are killing more than 100,000 people in the US annually.Fast food is another one causing diabetes, heart disease and cancers.
Now children are being forced to take amphetamines to dull their brains in a broken educational system-supported by lottery and cigarette taxation . . . the list of hypocrazy is long.
We do need to clean our house first.
We have the intelligence, the resources and the people to expand a healthier global culture of common wealth. We simply need to accept our differences and build on our strengths- Let’s do it for all the children.
Thank you, Tod
I agree with the selected “Best comment”, but the writer could have gone a step further. First, stop calling pot an “illegal drug” and lumping it together with the so-called “hard drugs”, and simply legalize it. Second, legalize the hard drugs such that they can be got, cheaply and after seeking professional help, by addicts. Provide help and interrim detox drugs rather than throwing them in prison.
You cannot simply legislate a population into curing its drug problems. You cannot cure the problem by imprisoning people (been tried, and doesn’t work). You might, however, at least make a dent in the problem by decriminalizing it and providing help. Are memories all so short that we don’t remember the true impacts of prohibition: huge profits from illicit alcohol fueled the rise of the American mafia. Thousands were arrested. Not a dent was made in alcohol consumption. It shouldn’t take a genius to see that what we are doing a present is doomed to failure. Of course, if you still really think all drugs should be banned, then you must be ok with our spending more on prisons in this country, at present, than on education. You must be ok with our having an unprecedented, absurd prison population of order 1% of the country’s population! So get real, yes, try to reduce drug dependence, but do it in a rational, tested fashion rather than just the opposite.
Imagine curing addiction with reason!? Our problem is drug addiction which we know that we cannot cure with Harry Potter’s stick.How bad will it have to get for us to realize that drug interdiction is not working?As long as people are addicted to drugs they will do whatever it takes to obtain them Afghanistan,Pakistan,Columbia and Mexico all have in common one thing American dollars in persuit of illegal drugs.Make believe all those countries disappeared,four more would take their place in persuit of American dollars!
The real problem with Mexico is the market for drugs in the United States! Your country has got to fix your problem before you start on the dangerous path of blaming others for your faults. Your war on drugs is a completely untenable with more people in jail per capita than any other country on the planet, that includes Iran, China and Russia. Your appetite for these drugs is beyond the pale. Until you comes to terms with your collective addiction your ranting will fall on deaf ears in the rest of the world. How you fix your addiction is your problem and your problem alone. The way you have been approaching it in the past has been a complete disaster. The prove is in the pudding when it comes to Mexico, it is your drug habit that is causing these problems in Mexico. So get your own house in order before you blame others.
*note to censor - I’ve taken out swear words. I think my points are valid. I’m a real person (see my site)…I’d appreciate not being censored again*
Peter writes, “The simple, logical, and common sense solution is legalizing drugs in the USA.”
100% right. The answer is so idiotically obvious on its face, it’s just incredible the American public has bought into this line of bull**** that, for the “sake of the children,” oh Christ, the best way to deal with our drug habit is to criminalize it, fill our (privatized) prisons with non-violent offenders and then prosecute endless and pointless wars in Latin America that only result in making the narcos more and more clever, powerful and adapted to withstand our tactics.
Millions more people die every year in the US from sucking down big macs and pepsi and that dog meat they serve at taco bell and the rats they microwave for you at KFC, than do from drug abuse or overdose. How does the American public, the fattest population in world history now, feel about these poisons? Or the poisons that spew from the tailpipes of their SUV’s, or the plastic they put in the microwave or the vinyl gasses that vent off their new K-Mart furniture and carpets? Or getting high off 12 Smirnoff Ices, which aren’t just harmful as alcohol but contain all kinds of chemical flavoring for good measure? Just ****in’ great. They can’t get enough of that ****.
But God forbid somebody does some blow or smokes a joint, they just go all out of whack. When you look at the situation in Mexico, just like the situation in Pakistan, it becomes patently obvious the length, breadth and depth of the pit America has dug for itself.
Unfortunately, the extremely obese tend to have problems crawling out of this kind of abyss. The only question now is how long can America live off its own fat before it starts looking like the banana republic it’s alaready become?
To James,
Dude, get your facts straight, the U.S. has the world’s most expensive healthcare system, it costs people roughly 3 times the amount it does for people in Canada, but it ranks 37th in the world. Socialized medicine is more effective, totally inclusive, and a hell of a lot cheaper. Get a clue.
The solution to this problem is almost absurdly simple. Legalize drugs under the aegis of a harm-prevention approach, tax them and put all the worst addicts in contact with medical professionals. Save billions on the “War on Drugs” and rob every drug cartel and gang on the planet of their profits. Then, they’ll have to get real jobs. We’ll have peaceful streets, a healthier population and a lot more money. The only people opposed to this are religious/conservative fanatics who believe you can somehow convince everyone to stop using drugs, it’ll NEVER HAPPEN, and, of course, weapons manufacturers and intelligence agencies that profit from the War on Drugs. The solution is obvious, we just have to push the issue and force our democracy to function in the common interest for once.
Its hard for me to read Mexico, my homeland has been compared to Pakistan, not attempting to be rude to that Asian country, is hard to read of both cuntries in the same line. But in the neverending position of sema proclaimed global judge, US goberment seems to see a treath in 2 contries himself has helped get to the point there at now. I agree with the comment posted in this same site, the people of the united states have feed the monster now they fear, the US is the number 1 drug consumer around the world, making drug cartels stronger and more anxious to get the money northamericans are so desperate to spend. So what should be done, Mexico goberment actions are just as important as US goberment, no t only in fighting the drug cartels, but educating and preventing on drugs use and abuse. The strugle in mexico is far from being over, but it would help if the cartels run out of clients.
Mexico and Pakistan, to different problems, both once feed bu the US, now both feared by it
James said ” People are weak when it comes to - - - - disapline”. How about people are weak when it comes to correct spelling and typing out words in their entirety, hmmmmmmmm? Smiley faces? The feminization of men.
Now they try to scare us with Mexico’s collapse. Global warming has proved not scary enough. Who buys this BS?
The simple, logical, and common sense solution is legalizing drugs in the USA. Tax them. Raise revenue. Develop a new industry like the alcohol industry. Remove the cause of drug related crime here, Mexico, South America.
The brutal truth is that the international banking industry, and the international military industry profit so greatly from drugs current illegality, they would be fools to ever allow them to become legal.
Unless voters force the issue to the polls in the USA.
Our system of government allows for this possibility.
Our citizens low level of intelligence and reasoning ability currently preclude this from happening.
WHo do you think is REALLY intrested to stop this. The entire military industry would collapse…and this industry is rulling the world. Is all about energy and power. Absolute power.
the big problem today is weapons which is being used to maim and kill so many people in the world today nobody wants to talk about it in fear of the rich and powerful countries like the US,UK and EU counties israel included
these countries create brutal regimes and organisations and provide them with weapons and training to spread their policies and propaganda in the name of democracy
from the brutal dictatorships in south america to the shah(savak),Saddam to fight Khomeini,s iran to the taliban to fight the USSR .the US Intelligence is the biggest drug dealer in the world .
dealing in heroin to finance the vietnam war. in nicaragua US soldiers loading Cocaine into US military planes (Iran -Contra) using panama and noreiga as transit points and recently using the taliban Hekmatayar and his henchmen flying them into US on Us military planes no passport no visas but full load of heroin and selling it to US citizens
Also setting up distribution networks via the colombians in The US through Pablo Escobar and other colombian mafiosi families .
Now the US is spraying dangerous chemicals in colombia ,Bolivia and destroying the livelyhoods of millions of poor people and also supplying them with weapons to kill each other
The taliban believed in the Americans and sacrificed 1 million of their children in the rusian minefields and there is another million of crippled afghans and look what you are doing to them.
The US used them to fight the USSR and divided it into so many countries to sell their weapons to the military these countries have created .
Weapons is big business .The Blackmarket created by them to supply arms to rouge governments and illegal organisations at 10 times the price is also set up and controlled by the ig weapon manufacturing countries.
Now with the resurgence of socialist governments in south america they are trying to create a buffer by using mexico.
Now the people are much smarter they do not believe in the propaganda spewed out by these war mongering ,gun running hypocrites and they do not listen only to CNN,BBC ,Reuters reports and other mainstream media controlled by the rich powerful states.
Classic example is the media buildup on saddam and his biological and chemical weapons and the chosen media embedded with the invading armies and the killing of reporters who oppsed it
The world has to come together to stop these criminal governments selling weapons to poor people in the developing countries .
Create a new and fair organisation with a back bone unlike the UN and create a legal system where all orld leaders and their military could be prosecuted
then we will have a better world
In response to the statement “not give Mexico’s Gov’t more money…but to let it collapse for the most part, and clean it up afterwards” is obviously speaking from a deep well of ignorance and is drowning in stupidity.
The present political party (PAN) in control of the presidency and the previous administration in Mexico has been in power for less time than the previous political party (PRI) (eight years vs. 70 yrs).
They have made significant improvements one of which is to have a transparent budget and legislative system that can be accessed via the web and is updated daily. They have also strengthened laws for more Federal control of key areas of government to help eliminate corruption.
The majority of the government leaders have resisted the pressure from the cartels and unfortunately suffered with their lives. It’s only a handful of PRI party officials are resisting these dramatic changes but it takes time to dismantle and re-build a government.
The U.S. has had over 200 years and we are still learning and improving.
Given the proper and measured support for PAN and this administration in Mexico it will succeed. Do not support Mexico and its march towards a more perfect union and we will suffer the consequences of civil war in Mexico and we will have 40 to 50 million Mexicans crossing the border as refugees.
Invest in Mexico’s and you will be investing in security for the U.S. for decades and a partnership. Don’t invest and we will be guilty of hypocrisy at best by turning our backs to a fledgling democracy, or allowing the destruction of a proud and valuable people as well as a culture history that goes back before the time of Christ.
Pff, If Pakistan is going to nuke anyone, it would be India. And if you really want to solve the world’s problems…I say we spend 10 years building a linked…underground safe house, that millions can live in, and will be completely self sufficient, with geothermal power, and the use of deep underground water sources, then when we are confident in the ability to sustain the population in these shelters, Nuke the entire Earth into a bloody, radiation filled wasteland, like what happened to the dinosaurs (on a smaller scale) then after about 90-150 years, emerge once again to bring democracy and the free market to the entire world, unprovoked…besides the obvious horde of zombie-mutants and ultra-intelligent sea-otters that evolved to live on land. And the world will be peaceful once again.
This of course is an over exaggeration, and the simple solution is to not give Mexico’s Gov’t more money…but to let it collapse for the most part, and clean it up afterwords…It’s heartless, but if most the Gov’t is in bed with the Cartels…how do we know if the money is going to the right cause? And how do we know if the troops we train for them won’t just turncoat and go with the Cartels? We Don’t and in this case, we could end up making things worse. Besides, Obama won’t do much to clean up this mess, because he doesn’t have the power to do so, we have to wait no the eternity that is the legislative process…then, god-willing, Obama doesn’t veto for some reason, or some liability that he owes to another party or group. And the only way we can get Pakistan to even consider tightening up FATA and other areas…we need a lot of pressure from the UN or NATO…because they won’t listen to just us…ughh…it’s all a big headache, and will be a problem to drag on for a LOOOONG time.
People,
Legalizing drugs - all drugs - would do more to end crime, corruption, agony and pain than billions of dollars, troops, planes, and a thousand new prisons. After all, the most powerful drug of all is legal - and that’s alcohol. People drive cars on it, fight, scream, abuse, kill, participate in the full range of negative behavior - People on heroine sit there and stare - don’t drive, can’t fight, and slowly fade away.
Legalize drubs and organized crime will collapse
—————
Dude pot maybe not the others, think about it because the one won we’ll soon have nationalized healthcare….we’ed spend half the damn budget on health care. People are weak whem it comes to pleasure and self disapline the current and every generation in america sence the 60’s has been brought up for instant gratification and do what feels good and is easy mentality(and no im 24 not 60 i just see the world around me).
Ive worked jobs with mexican immigrants factory, farm, warhouse etc. etc. nice ppl mostly. To me it seems the drug lordsrun your country i believe eduardo you are right in its a large part our fault. But it wont stop the incoming administration is built on making you feel good not the truth or “change”. Add congress(yes i know the mexican jokes about lazy ppl but atleast there jokes for the congress who spends 4/5 days of the year gone there not. well i havent realy ever heard of a mexican working overtime but
)accepting buy offs (and dont say it doesnt happen Blogovich anyone?)and you get a corrupt and lazy government. But we can kill some drug king pins i say do it.
well exceppt for pot growers i mean seriously who canre about pot