– Bernd Debusmann is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. –
What do Pakistan and Mexico have in common? They figure in the nightmares of U.S. military planners trying to peer into the future and identify the next big threats.
The two countries are mentioned in the same breath in a just-published study by the United States Joint Forces Command, whose jobs include providing an annual look into the future to prevent the U.S. military from being caught off guard by unexpected developments.
“In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico,” says the study - Joint Operating Environment 2008 - in a chapter on “weak and failing states.” Such states, it says, usually pose chronic, long-term problems that can be managed over time.
But the little-studied phenomenon of “rapid collapse,” according to the study, “usually comes as a surprise, has a rapid onset, and poses acute problems.” Think Yugoslavia and its 1990 disintegration into a chaotic tangle of warring nationalities and bloodshed on a horrific scale.
Nuclear-armed Pakistan, where al-Qaeda has established safe havens in the rugged regions bordering on Afghanistan, is a regular feature in dire warnings. Thomas Fingar, who retired as the U.S.’s chief intelligence analyst in December, termed Pakistan “one of the single most challenging places on the planet.”
This is fairly routine language for Pakistan, but not for Mexico, which shares a 2,000-mile border with the 
United States.
Mexico’s mention beside Pakistan in a study by an organization as weighty as the Joint Forces Command (which controls almost all conventional forces based in the continental U.S.) speaks volumes about growing concern over what’s happening south of the U.S. border.
Vicious and widening violence pitting drug cartels against each other and against the Mexican state have left more than 8,000 Mexicans dead over the past two years. Kidnappings have become a routine part of Mexican daily life. Common crime is widespread. Pervasive corruption has hollowed out the state.
In November, in a case that shocked even those (on both sides of the border) who consider corruption endemic in Mexico, former drug czar Noe Ramirez was charged with accepting at least $450,000 a month in bribes from a drug cartel in exchange for information about police and anti-narcotics operations.
A month later, a Mexican army major, Arturo Gonzalez, was arrested on suspicion he sold information about President Felipe Calderon’s movements for $100,000 a month. Gonzalez belonged to a special unit responsible for protecting the president.
DESCENT INTO CHAOS?
Depending on one’s view, the arrests are successes in a publicly-declared anti-corruption drive or evidence of how deeply criminal mafias have penetrated the organs of the state.
According to the Joint Forces study, the possibility of a sudden collapse in Mexico is less likely than in Pakistan “but the government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state.”
It added: “Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
What form such a response might take is anyone’s guess and the study does not spell it out, nor does it address the economic implications of its worst-case scenario. Mexico is the third biggest trade partner of the United States (after Canada and China) and its third-biggest supplier of oil (after Canada and Saudi Arabia).
No such ties bind the United States and Pakistan but the study sees a collapse there not only as more likely but also as more catastrophic.
It would bring “the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent extremists, and the question of what would happen to its nuclear weapons. That ‘perfect storm’ of uncertainty alone might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces into a situation of immense complexity and danger … and with the real possibility that nuclear weapons might be used.”
It is not clear where on the long list of actual and potential crises around the world Mexico and Pakistan will rank once Barack Obama takes office as U.S. president on Jan. 20. During the election campaign, Obama repeatedly criticized Pakistan for not cracking down hard enough on terrorists inside its borders.
Since then a new Pakistani president came to power. Not long after, tensions between Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power, rose sharply after gunmen attacked two luxury hotels and other sites in Mumbai, India’s commercial capital, and killed 179 people. India described the attack as a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and carried out by Pakistanis.
Closer to home, the U.S. economic crisis looks likely to slow down a $1.4 billion assistance program (military equipment, training, technology) to help the Mexican government gain the upper hand over the drug cartels and re-establish control over what some have called “failed cities” along the border, places where shootouts, beheadings and kidnappings have become routine.
It would take a very rosy outlook on the future to expect rapid progress.
For previous columns by Bernd Debusmann, click here. You can contact the author at Debusmann@reuters.com.
The real shame here lies with the citizens of the United States. As the consumers of illegal drugs, we feed the drug cartels that have gutted Mexico's government. The best thing America can do to bolster our economy and protect our national security, is work on our own drug addiction.
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War on terror is one industry for Pakistan which brings multi billion dollars to Pakistan.
The problem in pakistan and most of the middle east is the effect wot population preesure. This small country has 164,000,000 people. 17,000 extra in 5 years and 50-60% are under 25.
The 2 major religions Islam and Christianity push for population growth. If we had not had an extra billion in the last 10-15 years everyone could have more.
I think the USA needs to coem home from iraq and if that part of the world it rock bottom so be it, maybe it needs to find its own way and that may have a big price.
Technologies have existed for decades to get rid of oil. Solar, wind, heat pumps and transport via compressed air can do the lot and the energy storage for the above has been around for 20 years.
I think the West needs to dig deep make itslef self sustaining. I reckon a lot oe atern Europe today just wan to say goodbye to Russia who cannot even keep a gas supply up.
I don’t think so that this article really represents the correct geo-political scenario of the world. As usual I found this article one-sided with all blames on a country which is going through one of the historic moment after its 60 years of independence. I am also unable to understand why everyone puts all blames on Pakistan for all the incidents happening in the world. Why we are blamed for the 9/11 drama orchestrated by God knows who? The people captured after that were either Saudis or Egyptians and US ended up invading Iraq and Afghanistan. It is true that Osama was hiding in Afghanistan but didn’t Taliban ask for proofs? US never gave anything to Taliban instead invaded Afghanistan and destroyed the country they used to say heroes of the cold war. Lets be fair with Taliban, they were used during cold war between US and USSR, they were supported, equipped with stingers missiles etc etc to destroy USSR to become the sole super power. Pakistan was used for this purpose and I accept that it was a blunder done by Gen Zia just to legitimise his own stay as a dictator, same thing which gen musharaf did after becoming an ally to US and sending his own troops to the tribal belt.
If somebody is day dreaming that Pakistan is going to collapse then let me assure everyone here that this country is not going to collapse. There is enough potential in this country even after whatsoever that this country will sustain like it did in the last 60 years. And let me remind everyone geo-strategically if Pakistan falls, it will effect the entire world badly and the results will be devastating.
There is no doubt that we have some radicals elements but this country has 170 million people and just hundreds of these crooks can not take over this country where all the major political parties are very moderate and the people as well. Also the rubbish propaganda from west that radicals may take over nuclear arsenals is not true. Its not a cake or pastry that someone will come and take out the nukes from a rack and put them in their bag and walk away. These nukes under the command and control system are placed at dispersed locations and even you collect all of them from different location you need something unbelievable skills to make them practically working. So I strongly condemn this false propaganda.
All what is happening in Pakistan is a written script by someone who has written the fate of zimbabwe,somalia,cambodia,vietnam,afghan istan, Iraq and you name it. In military terms this is called exterior manoeuvre what is happening right now in Pakistan. It starts with collapsing the economy of the country, eliminate self confidence in the public, deploy corrupt politicains,isolate the country from their friendly nations, blame that country for everything and finally declare the country as failed state to takeover the institutions. This is not conspiracy, this is the truth.
I am not trying to blame anyone here but lets face the reality which no one likes to discuss. Why don’t US leave for heaven sake intervening Pakistan politics? Why don’t they stop operations in Afghanistan and let afghans decide for heaven sake? For the last 35 years these guys are suffering because of a bloodshed. What the hell they doing in Iraq now when Bush has admitted that it was a false intelligence and invasion is not justified? Why don’t they ask Israel to stop genocide in Palestine? Why Muslims are being crushed everywhere in between the super powers battle for Oil and resources?
As far as India is concerned I have a firm believe that India is no as such big danger to Pakistan. They can probably do small stuff with west on their back but they don’t have a potential and guts to destabilize Pakistan on their own.
In America, we don’t like or want our own politicians. It is no mystery to us that they care nothing for their constituents. It is not mystery that they only line their own pockets at the expense not only of us, the people, but our children and grandchildren. It is no mystery to us that they have NO IDEA what they are doing when they make our laws and rule over us.
Imagine the arrogance of our people then to assume that we or our government should have a say in ANYTHING that happens overseas or in a neighbor country. It is truly the great demise of the American people that we maintain this attitude. How exactly would you feel if the Taliban declared themselves the ‘liberators of the American working class’ when they bombed WTC? You would think that they were crazy! Why is this different from the interference we propose to inflict on systems and governments that are not our own?
The US government can not take care of its own people. It doesn’t supply us with jobs and it doesn’t provide us with health care or retirement and yet we think for some unimaginable reason that the rest of the world would want to appreciate all the ‘blessings’ bestowed upon them by our government? Lets take a good hard look at the bang up job we did in Afghanistan before (check the CIA’s page to see what a lovely jewel we produced there, if I was a people looking at ‘US intervention’ in my country I would join the Taliban just to keep us out!) we go traipsing into another country to ‘remedy’ the situation!
Interfering in other countries is crazy, and quite the opposite of the actions that would benefit the American people.
Want to see how dangerous Mexico is becoming? Come to my neighborhood in Phoenix!!
Heavily armed gangs now roam and breach the US border. They fire on US Border Patrol members. They reach up here into Phoenix and kill people, peddle their deadly merchandise and give us the finger.
Yes this country has a drug problem and d–n it we need to control it but at the same time will the Cartels stop existing with reduced demand? Nope, they will simply come out with new ways for addiction, new drugs, harder to detect… and many many other things.
Also remember Mexico is the murder and kidnapping capital of the America’s. The regularly pick up Americans in Mexico for ransom. The dug and crime gangs regularly engage the federales and military in shoot outs and military style engagements. Many mercenaries are coming up from South and Cenral America to “play”, the gangs are only too happy to pay them with the ill gotten gains.
Mexico is slowly becoming a National Security Risk and has been that way for years. Why such the influx of illegals lately? Hmmm… maybe they don’t want to stay in Mexico. Sure they send money home but now whole families are coming and starting new lives. Buying houses, cars, going to school, having a better life but they remember the violence and instability of Mexico.
The Fed’s in Mexico need to stabalize the country and get it growing again, safely. If not there will eventually be more of a rush and much more of a risk to the United States as even more violence spills over the Border into Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas. Then with the ease of transportation in this county now they’ll spread and the risk will spread too.
Not the big fear of Mexicans here. My friends are from Mexico and this is just a cleaner form of what they say.
They legally came for a reason and don’t want to see this country become the same as Mexico in any way.
To measure pakistan and mexico in the same breath is highly ridiculous. And to say that mexico poses same amount of threat as pakistan is also very asinine. Pakistan is slowly and gradually becoming a rogue state: the desertions within army are increasing; economy is falteringl; and religious fanaticism is gaining popular support. So what to do…… i think the best thing for the Americans and for the rest of the world would be to stop supporting the military and start supporting the secular political parties….as long as they support and lionize pakistani military incidents such as mumbai terror attacks would continue… and the world will remain an unstable place
Americans are peddled silly myths by the so called security experts that the tribal areas bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan are the source of threat for USA. This is a grave under estimation of the Pakistan problem.
What about the rest of “Pakistan”? Daniel Pearl was beheaded not in the tribal areas, but in Karachi.
Large sections of Pakistan army and ISI estblishment support jihadi terrorism, and terrorism against unarmed civilians is widely supported by Pakistani population if the victims are non-muslims.
Karachi has been the coordinating city, nerve center for all Pakistani terrorist operations. The terrorist “charity” recently banned by the UN is based out of Punjab province, not in tribal areas. Major terrorist training camps are run throughout Punjab province and in Kashmir.
Pakistanis tell the drone attacks by US army are very unpopular in “Pakistan”. But let’s look at what type of activities are very popular in “Pakistan”.
India has just released phone conversations of pakistani terrorists in Mumbai talking to the Pak army handlers in Karachi directing them who to kill, when to kill, etc.
” I have a Singaporean, Chinese and Belgian”. Pak army handler at the other end in Karachi says kill them but spare the two muslims.
Think about this. This type of activity is very popular in “Pakistan” unlike the drone attacks. Why should the civilized world put up with this type of nonsense?
Soon afer the Mumbai terrorist attacks, jihadi terrorist outfits met with the Pak army at its headquarters and publicly declared their support for Pak army.
US should stop giving military aid to “Pakistan”. Thinking Pak army will fight Taliban is fantasy. It ain’t going to happen. It is for the American ppl to decide how much money and lives they want to spend on this drama.
Very unfortunate article title and the idea which are insulting to the Mexicans..
Pakistan is a rogue country, full of raging religious fanatics, nuclear weapons and terrorists. Pakistan is a threat to the whole world.
Problems with Mexico are trivial compared to Pakistan
Two points in the drug debate that are absolutely true:
1) Drug users will always find a way to get high, regardless of what is criminalized.
2) Terrorists will always find a way to fund their operations, regardless of which consumer habits are mitigated.
While it is usual for the phrases ‘perfect storm’/'imminent collapse’/'epicenter of terrorism’ etc to be attached with Pakistan it is really disturbing that Mexico has descended into such a dire straits to be compared to Pakistan. The fact that the world’s richest nation is sending Billion upon Billions of dollars across the Pacific to employ cheap labor while spending Billions yet again to keep out cheap labor from their southern neighbor is kind of ludicrous. The problem is really self evident yet seems to be a completely alien concept to most American companies or Politicians.
The fact that it would be cheaper, safer and more productive in the long run to invest in Mexico than in China is something that people and politicians need to consider more seriously. Not only will it solve the problems of illegal immigration but also help American national security in the long run.
As for Pakistan, I think it is high time, we realize that the state of Pakistan, an Islamic fundamentalist state, cannot be part of any viable future solution in the region as Islamist fundamentalism goes against pretty much everything America and democratic values stand for. The only option being either balkanizing the region or ridding that regions fixation with medieval ideologies and barbaric philosophies and putting them on a path towards progressive enlightenment.
Curious,
Really? You think there are a lot of people who have never had to suffer a drunk! Stop blaming the inanimate for biological and character flaws. Legal or not you will have people who are going to be addicts. You think having drugs illegal will some how keep an potential addict from becoming an addict. A dependent personality is just that. Have you ever been to an AA meeting? At least there they have to admit THEY are an alcoholic and THEY need to change. They do not try to lay blame on the inanimate drug.
Maybe you should read up on your history. Google alcohol prohibition and see what did to this country. See the parallels. Lives and families are being destroyed not just because of someone’s untreated addiction but because of the laws that tear families apart and they create a black market that funnels money out of this country to gangs who deal outside the law. You can’t stop addition but you can stop so much injustice and pain. Read up on Prohibition and what it caused. Then ask yourself why they thought they needed to change the Constitution to make Alcohol illegal yet there are many illegal substances today. It is called Fear Mongering and Demonization. We the People allowed certain interests to convince us to give up our rights so our Nanny Government could pretend to protect us. Unfortunately most people bought it. From William Hurst and Marijuana to our government manipulating the science research and funding, the American people have been duped. The ruse cannot continue. Terrorist all over the world are getting into the drug business and the only way to stop it is to take that business away from them. As long as there is a Drug Black Market there will be those that profit greatly from it. And these profits will fund the lawless. As long as you have prohibition you will have this black market. The more you crack down the higher the value of the drug the more profit they make. Read Scientific America and find out how bias research funding really is. 80% of all illegal drug use in this country is marijuana. The next highest is cocaine. Legalize these two in this country and you cut the funding to these gangs south of the boarder. Legalize opium here and in the EU and you destroy the majority of that market and cut of f that stream of funding to terrorists. And with that we as a nation stop destroying lives and start treating addicts, not be sending them to prison but, to treatment. We stop demonizing them and instead of a pariah they can become productive citizens again.
I think Pakistani should learn that what happens when they standby the wrong side. I think Pakistan should remain neutral as the current policies are not benifitiing them all. Yes it is shamefull but Pakistani should start look the bigger picture insted of selective pereptions from others. What time Pakistan will learn the lesson ? The realities will change as changes are eminents and so that perceptions.
And Pakistanis are constantly sacrificing their soldiers more than any other nation on earth, for the the cause of Americans.
is this Mother Jones ? Sorry I came to the wrong site . The comment deemed best is a blame America whiner . Forget about blaming mexicans with no morals or backbone . Or blaming our open borders policy that allows drugs and illegals to flow freely . Grow some balls and take responsibility for your own country mexico . Seems once here in America your gangs control neighborhoods . Imagine if you returned home and took back your country or were you part of the problem there as well?
Just curious - how many commenting here have ever actually had to live in a neighborhood or with a family member addicted to narcotics? Believe me, if you have, the last thing you would want is the legalization of drugs. What people must realize is that legalizing drugs will not make drug addiction go way, and will only benefit current drug dealers who will have an advantage selling black market drugs over those who will have to sell the more expensive legal drugs, due to taxes and overhead.
Legalizing drugs only makes sense if you’ve never had to live with or near those who are actually addicted to them. (Substance Abuse therapists don’t count, because they send the addict home, away from them and their neighborhood, when the session is over.)
Zubair: To learn in greater detail why the Americans are worried, read this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/11/magazi ne/11pakistan-t.html?_r=1&ref=magazine
And let´s not forget about the armament supply. Drug cartels´ armament comes mostly from US and it´s more powerfull than Mexico´s law enfforcement
This is a most shameful and disrespect article for the people of Pakistan, who lost there life/wealth/time for the Americans, and still continue to do so. Pakistan is a friend and allie in the war against terrorism, and still they bear the blame for terrorism………..Every day bloody hell Teleban kill innocent Pakistani and Pakistani army solder for supporting the war against terrorim………..but still the article writer is not convinced………very very shameful.
Very interesting study but
Watch your back Knight!!!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12305110 0709638419.html
Hello from Chihuahua (the mexican state with most murders in 2007).
While Im writing this I’m listening to gunfire some blocks from here. Im not kidding, its usual now. Fear is in the air. Everybody talks about some relative or friend of a friend being killed, kidnapped, or affected by drug related crime, and I’m talking about people that has nothing to do with it. Almost every night we can hear gunfire shootings. And the next day we are seeking the newspaper to see who has been killed.
There is not only one root for this problem. It’s like a tree, has many roots that joins together and form all this violent environment. Drug addiction is here as in the US, but cheaper. Maybe our president is doing his work, but is failling. Politics here only care about winning elections to get more power, and to gain better than first world salaries. Hipocresy its the name of the game. Until USA don’t legalize drugs, nothing is going to change.
One of the questions is: Why is so easy in the US to buy an AK-47 ? Thousands, if not millons had came to Mexico from the US. Narcs here some times warns people to stay at home for some hours while they go and kill an enemy. They have sometimes the time to do that, while police officers are at the police stations watching soup operas, or soccer, just letting narcs to do what they want.
This is one true fact: 90 % of police in Mexico is corrupt, and has had received money from organized crime, at least one time. They take the money or are killed. And politicians just gaining super salaries, sending their families to El Paso, San Diego or Miami to live, and hiring bodywards at the expense of our taxes.
I think too that drug addiction in the US, has something to do with the financial crisis. Especially cocaine addiction. Cocaine makes people too much self confident, and out of control. That leads to a liyng habit. Think about that.
Please legalize drugs. People that consume drugs in a self destructive way has a psychological problem. Many people know that. Those who are killing each other are just fighting for the money.
Here in Mexico, an intense rehabilitation program costs about $400 dollars a month, food included. That’s cheaper than the war on drugs.
We share with you the same problem. We don’t hate you, we don’t want to conquer the southwestern. Mexican people are just people, not religious extremists as in Pakistan. Politicians in both side of the border are the problem and the solution. The key is drug money. And the real challenge is to be really honest. And in this case no one has the determination to legalize drugs.
Drug criminalization is absurd, because if I want to get high, i dont need cocaine or marihuana, or other illegal substance. I can just go to a hardware store, and buy some chemicals like thinner, or go to a pharmacy and buy a bottle of cough syrup and drink it in one gulp. What will be the diference?.
The obstacle to achieve drug legalization are the censors, that live from pointing that “unmoral” behaviors an making laws from it.