The Great Debate
09:29 January 26th, 2009

Davos debate: What can be done for the global economy?

Tags: General, Tales from the Trail: 2008, , ,

wefpic2With business and consumer confidence fading, the prospects for the global economy appear the worst for a generation. Amid the gathering gloom, are things really that bad? And can nothing be done to give the global growth engine a kick-start?

Reuters asked delegates at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos for their views.

John Monks
Our approach must be to argue the positive case for a new society based on sustainability, responsibility and greater equality, with no return to the ‘business as usual' of the past 20 years. "Business as usual" has brought the banks - and many of the rest of us - to our knees.
-Posted by John Monks
Gerard Lyons
Overall, even emerging economies that have positive fundamentals such as Asia, will suffer as the global recession spreads, with trade, commodity prices and confidence all falling and credit tightening. But this cyclical set-back should not divert attention from their structural positives.
-Posted by Gerard Lyons
Raymond Fisman
Why is statism suddenly fashionable once again? The same factors that were responsible the first time around: The large-scale failure of financial markets in the United States, and the pain suffered in recent days by open economies - countries that did everything “right” and are now experiencing currency flight and massive stock market declines - have led many to question the wisdom of economic orthodoxy.
-Posted by Raymond Fisman

Best Comment

January 27th, 2009
1:11 pm EST
I absolutely don't understand why no one is paying attention to the basics, to wit: Explain to the banks that the funds are there to be lent, not to buy each other. If they don't start lending, pull their business permits. Tell the credit rating agencies that for 160 days all foreclosed clients and people with usurus credit card interest rates will have a 40% raise in ratings. If they won't cooperate, do the same thing. Put them out of business. No bonuses for anyone in the money business for two years minimum. I can go on, but I'm an amateur. I'm sure the experts who got us here in the first place know better.
-Posted by Andrew Franks

34 comments so far

January 30th, 2009 12:40 am GMT - Posted by Leric Goodman

What Northern Rock and every other lender that is busily foreclosing fails to understand is that the sheer volume of foreclosures feeds the ever-widening economic black hole by further depressing property values, which in turn further depresses the value of the securities backed by interests in the properties, which in turn reduces the Asset side of their Balance Sheets, which ends up (1) reducing their Capital, and their ability to make new loans. Since banks make money by lending money, ultimately Northern Rock and every other lending bank will have expenses (of staffing and, of course, of foreclosures) but no income.

The only way out of the death spiral is to STOP FORECLOSING. This is counter-intuitive for bankers used to normal conditions. BUT WE ARE NO LONGER IN NORMAL CONDITIONS. Operating as though things were normal is INSANE. If a lunatic were dangerous to himself, most societies would restrain him. Bankers also need to be restrained for their own good — and for the good of many national economies.

In the U.S. the sheer volume of foreclosures seems to require a moratorium of at least 5 years — with a disclosed system to allow foreclosures on the properties subject to the moratorium to proceed at a very slow trickle — in order to allow some semblance of normal market forces to re-establish themselves.

January 29th, 2009 3:30 pm GMT - Posted by Damian Palmares

Yes, much better coordination of regulations between all financial institutions and countries of our world. If this does not happen, we will temporarily fix the situation but there will be a high rate of relapse sometime in the future. As much as I hate to say it, we really need to look at global regulations and regulators that have the authority to cross all borders in order to prevent another financial global collapse. There is a lot that needs to be done, not only regarding the financial sectors disparities between countries but in the global imbalance of trade between countries as well, mainly so China and the U.S., but all countries trade imbalances really need to be scrutinized before the world collapses and financial disarray ten times what is happening now occurs and could lead to protectionism and large scale war.

January 29th, 2009 3:03 pm GMT - Posted by Klaus Schwab

January 29th, 2009 12:57 pm GMT - Posted by Mark Gionfriddo

Well I had heard something about the E.U. contemplateing a digital gold standard. That is good and fine, but politicaly, unless the leaders of these countries alot some degree of economic determinism, it seems theyr looking toward catalization, all to eagerly. So the choice is clear, 250 billion dollar bailout in physical silver, non spcie payable notes for a 10 year period to be reviewed by congress at that time. Although bronze or copper may be more appropriate at this point,non the less, if co-determinsim is to ever be considered, nature must be reconsidered. Dispossesion of any private institution or indvidual is immoral of course, but ultimatly, unfortunatly this seems to be the only avenue alotted to us by this crisis. i would say the most natual and stable way to return confidience,is let the federal reserve move to digital gold alongside europe, while at the same time relinquishing the treasurey, to print a silver stamp Amero. Of course at the moment it quite a laughable suggestion, as this is obviously not natural at the moment domesticly, nor deserved. Also universal abolition of the death penalty, and a resumption for a more empirically accurate and updated understanding of the concept of justice is decades if not a century overdue, but of course issues like that dont collapse societys so its not that important.

January 29th, 2009 5:40 am GMT - Posted by George Soros

January 29th, 2009 5:36 am GMT - Posted by Sameer Al Ansari

January 29th, 2009 5:30 am GMT - Posted by Reuters Staff

Davos delegate comment: George Soros

January 29th, 2009 5:17 am GMT - Posted by Reuters Staff

Davos delegate comment: Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley

January 28th, 2009 10:56 pm GMT - Posted by Damian Palmares

Well said Craig and very interesting comment Paul. Now you’re going to make me go research floating cities. When global warming really occurs and if the oceans do rise to levels we have not seen for millions of years, I wouldn’t mind living on one of these floating cities.

January 28th, 2009 7:28 pm GMT - Posted by Miguel Rosado

“the concentration of wealth is natural and inevitable, and is periodically alleviated by violent or peaceable partial redistribution.” From Lessons of History by Will Durant. Borrowing money will not achieve redistribution but will prolong and exacerbate the problem. “History tells us that this unstable equilibrium has to be met by legislation ‘redistributing wealth’ or by revolution ‘distributing poverty’.”

January 28th, 2009 12:58 pm GMT - Posted by Nancy

Get rid of the FED and the United Stats Government start printing it’s own money why borrow from these users when we don’t have to. The FED is a not a government bank.
Hello?
Any thoughts? Huh any?

January 28th, 2009 12:16 pm GMT - Posted by Reuters Staff

January 28th, 2009 12:06 pm GMT - Posted by Paul Rosa

The world lacks anything like the “frontier” it still had in the 19th century. All places and resources are effectively bought up and owned by someone.

AS false as some of the investment mechanism of the past 20 years were - some derivatives like the options based on market performance alone - they at least made money move. We were an economy that had to “make work” to keep the machine rolling and to keep the population alive. How different from the situation the world was in when it was able to develope vast new territories (unfortunately at the expense of the indigenous peoples) and was able to create real wealth based on increased production.

But we still have a vast resource that is in terrible condition and needs to be restored. The oceans. They are 3/4 of the earth’s surface and may occupy somewhat more in time.

The landscape of most countries on this planet is very thoroughly utilized and is even over utilized in many places. It is not a difficult task to build new cities on the water. Some countries - Holland in particular - already have contingency plans for floating towns in case Global warming should do it’s worst. They’re designing rafts to float more or less conventional structures.

New development on water has many great advantages. They could serve as models of contained communities for habitation and occupation. Why would mankind send people to space colonies when they have not yet demonstrated that they can live in such strict quarantine from any natural environment. In space there is only “inside”. “Outdoors” means death. Ocean life is not as inhospitable.

They could be sited in the more temperate zones of the planet, and could augment isolated island communities that might themselves suffer under a severe global warming sea level rise. They could take pressure form population growth in areas - like the drying deserts of Northeast Africa, or vast populations as in India. They could serve as outposts for the monitoring and rehabilitation of the seriously damaged ocean eco systems and might in fact not be exploiters of that system themselves but careful managers of it.

There are hundreds of thousands of citations in any online search that will wield information on “Ocean Floating Cities” It’s not a crackpot idea or even very difficult to accomplish. In fact - it tends to look like the natural, safe and most agreeable place to live. I have no doubt that if they were built to be as affordable as life “on the prairies” once was - they would be very attractive to peoples from many very populous countries now.

And building that is water based does not require the high costs of a piece of land to put it on and unlike land-based buildings it is never fixed in place. When buildings and people cannot be trapped to a fixed place on the ground - there can be no “slums” or areas of physical decline and abandonment. A city of deep or shallow draft “rafts” can be rearranged to grow and to perpetually adapt to changing demographics. There is no limit to their size either.

There principal activities could be food production and for that they should be inexpensive to occupy and the home first and foremost to people who now find it difficult to do that anymore on the land. They could do this with contained aquaculture and without recourse to trawling or other direct exploitation of the seas.

The ocean is the natural place for vast development. Even cities - and one needn’t visualize development patterns very different from land-based development - merely buoyant. That is not that difficult either when one holds in mind that a typical big box stores one finds in any suburban shopping mall - if they had been made buoyant would not displace more than a few feet of water. A typical wood frame house would displace even less. Water is rather heavy and building can be amazingly light. They could make use of petroleum-based plastics rather than use oil as fuel.

They could also be built to utilize wave motion, wind motion, solar gain and gas from waste decomposition. They could migrate or they could stay more or less stationary. They could create lifestyles that were low energy consuming to start and could actually eliminate the need for combustion of any type of fuel for their energy needs (with the exception of gas from organic decomposition.

They could be built and lived in according to a new paradigm which they would define to utilize energy and resource sustainably and they would have no need for infrastructure such a roads or rails. The natural and historically easiest way to ship heavy freight has always been by water.

We shouldn’t just try to fix the problems on land but to relieve the burden on the land and also have the joy of creating entirely new and fresh communities on the oceans. The natural home for some of the most far-fetched and large sized land based structures is the ocean. Does anyone remember Paolo Solari?) All of the human population could hypothetically live in vast floating cities and it would require GPS to locate them at all on the high seas. It’s and enormous unoccupied area. And we use it very primitively now and might even be killing it. The planet actually has three times the area mankind currently occupies.

January 28th, 2009 1:16 am GMT - Posted by alisa n smith

yes, it seems generations of greed have taken their toll-add to it, that countries that used to roll over, are now players….those ways of unmitgated taking, have to end.

I would like simple, fair, rules for everyone to play by.
such as all loans, borrowing and funding, etc, be dealt the same interest rates.
whether an individual, a corporation, or a country.
lets say, 5% across the board.

I am not sure I believe that nationalizing banks is such a good thing-it makes countries even more powerful. I would prefer banks to be public entities. accountable to the governments, and especially to the people.
with transparent accounting practices.
that means no more projecting unrealized profits…

fun as that may be.

January 27th, 2009 6:20 pm GMT - Posted by craig batley

Davos Files Administrator,

Progress will not occur by implementing the North American Union. The system is rotton to the core and needs to be gutted.
Common sense dictates an end to War immediately and a tack towards Global survival as a priority for the species but not through Earth Government, corporocracy, etc.

Use the United Nation’s statistics to end World Hunger and devote resources to enviromental, and energy concerns. Outlaw banking as it exists ..
This is not a cyclic normal event of finance..it has been done by plan.
Simple math suggests that it would only cost a few hundred billion to end War and Hunger on this planet.
Bend your fabulous economic prowess towards that end for a change. Use all your skill and take some pride in your fiancial wizardry…
Quit living on credit to support military budgets.
Canada especially…Shame on you!
Just cut the miltary spending out of your budget from 2006. Or do you absolutly have to spend that $490.billion you intend to waste allready on Public Safety and Soldiers.
Cut the Chaff….quit funding Psychiatry and War.

January 27th, 2009 1:11 pm GMT - Posted by Andrew Franks

I absolutely don’t understand why no one is paying attention to the basics, to wit: Explain to the banks that the funds are there to be lent, not to buy each other. If they don’t start lending, pull their business permits. Tell the credit rating agencies that for 160 days all foreclosed clients and people with usurus credit card interest rates will have a 40% raise in ratings. If they won’t cooperate, do the same thing. Put them out of business. No bonuses for anyone in the money business for two years minimum. I can go on, but I’m an amateur. I’m sure the experts who got us here in the first place know better.

January 27th, 2009 1:07 pm GMT - Posted by Tetsuo Osada

Davos can do nothing. We should look at people who gather there. Those are the people who led the world economy to current horrendous situation, notwithstanding their given power to go the other way. Davos just helps to give participants faulse perception that they are the elites who are capable to steer the world. If they do really still want to meet, why don’t they meet at a simple ballroom of a local hotel in the cold field of Michigan, not at luxury resort hotel of Switzerland? Then they will recognoize what is going on.

January 27th, 2009 1:07 pm GMT - Posted by anton kleinschmidt

At the time of the last Davos conference in 2008 all the signs of the impending disaster were there to be seen. Very few of the global wunderkinder who attended evinced the slightest sign of any anticipation of the growing storm. They are unlikely to arrive at any concrete solutions this time around. It is a cliche ridden gabfest not a forum for serious economic deliberation

January 27th, 2009 12:33 pm GMT - Posted by Don

The powers that be are not interested in anything that delegitimizes how things have been done. So regardless of what I write nothing will change. Global fertility is down drastically. Bee populations are at critical levels. Aquatic species have been demolished. We are at the doorsteps of human extinction. There are lots of good places to spend money. But we want to spend our cash on infrastructure. My idea is to pretend everything will be fine in a couple of years, tell people to be more confident and to ignore all the negativity. Just ignore people with strange notions of how things should be.

January 27th, 2009 9:56 am GMT - Posted by Craig Coal

The root of the crisis we are in is a lack of management in our government and major corporations. TO understand what I mean let’s take a look at how this mess started. In the late 1980’s and early 1990’s we finally came out of the recession that was caused by the policies of Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter. The country was doing well the stock market was going up at a rapid pace.
In the mid 90’s government fueled the fire of greed by relaxing accounting standards: allowing accounting firms to acquire auditing firms and reducing the number of IRS auditors. In 1998 congress passed a ruling that all but stopped IRS audits.
The combination of the conflict of interest of private accounting firms and the removal of the threat of IRS audits allowed too many corporations to adjust their books to reflect larger profits and hide loses so that the stocks would rise and their credit scores would go up, thus qualifying them for more borrowing.
Managers of these corporations loved this because it justified their huge bonuses so they pushed the false accounting to the point that they created a world-wide financial bubble.
Of course, falsified books can only get a company so far, at some point the truth must come out and the bubble breaks. We started to see this in 2000-2001 when Enron failed. Then one by one accounting firms got into trouble, and then failure hit other companies until big banks, mortgage corporations and some of the largest corporations in the country got into financial trouble in 2008, hence the bailouts.
Can the problem of poor management and greed be fixed by fueling the fire with more money, i.e. a bailout?
Would you give your teenager a new car, pay for his insurance and give him a credit card after he had wrecked 5 cars and already run up tens of thousands of dollars in credit card bills?
Giving these greedy government and corporate managers more money makes reason star. Rather than fuel the fires of greed and economic insanity this country needs to return to the very basics of business:
Managers need to take responsibility for the resources under their control and optimize the real return on investment. Accountants need to follow the set standards so stockholders, creditors and the public once again have an honest picture of a firm’s value. Auditors need to remove any conflicts of interest they have with the firms they are auditing to support a true picture of the firm and government needs to keep their greedy hands off of business and be satisfied with the taxes that are generated on the wealth that is produced by business.
If we as a country can do this we can pull out of the current recession in short order.
But if we continue the present course of merging managers, accountants, auditors and government appointees into a marriage of greed the recession will become a prolonged depression with no end in sight.

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