- Eric Auchard is a Reuters columnist. The views expressed are his own –
If you look no further than the latest headlines, you might think a worldwide flu pandemic was already underway with a very real threat to millions of lives.
While there are many unanswered questions early on in the outbreak of flu from Mexico, it is crucial to remember that the number of deaths and reported infections remain small — even if its spread across the globe has proved worryingly rapid.
While the infected need access to medical care and anti-viral drugs, the rest of the world needs an inoculation against scary statistics and misinformation.
The Internet Age allows facts and rumour to spread almost instantaneously. But knowing of outbreaks across the globe must not be confused with risks of catching the disease.
Already in this outbreak, Lebanon’s health minister has called for a halt to the national custom of greeting one another with kisses. Several countries including Russia and China have banned pork imports from Mexico and parts of the United States in the belief that meat could spread the flu.
So far, up to 149 are reported to have died of swine flu in Mexico. The World Health Organisation has upgraded the level of pandemic threat to four on a scale of six — sustained human-to-human transmission. Stage five signals an “imminent” pandemic.
However, influenza is a big killer every year, with or without a pandemic.
WHO estimates flu kills upward of 250,000 to 500,000 people year after year. “Normal” flu epidemics infect 3 to 5 million a year. Statistics are complicated by inconsistent reporting. Flu often leads to other ailments that end up being listed as the ultimate cause of death.
Flu’s typical victims are the elderly, the infirm or the young. The difference with swine flu outbreak in Mexico is that otherwise healthy adults aged 20-50 are vulnerable.
But so far the new swine flu death rates are lower than other recent pandemic scares, a report by Barclays Capital notes. The 2,200 swine flu infections reported have resulted in deaths in 7 percent of cases. Avian flu has killed 61 percent of the 421 people infected since 1997. The death rate from SARS was around 10 percent.
Outside Mexico, 50 infections have been reported in the United States, Canada, Israel, New Zealand, Spain and Scotland. But health experts are baffled that infections outside Mexico appear to be milder and have caused no deaths.
The world’s most recent flu pandemic 41 years ago was the 1968 Hong Kong outbreak, which claimed one million lives.
Historically, pandemics occur about three times a century. But like predictions of the next big earthquake, medical experts profess they have no idea when to expect the next pandemic.
Inevitably, comparisons end up turning back to the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920, which killed more than 50 million people, or 2.5 percent of the world’s population.
That scourge followed the massive troop movements of World War One at a time of poor communications and before the invention of penicillin and modern healthcare systems. Post-war censorship rules restricted access to news, which limited the ability of communities to make informed decisions to protect themselves against the spread of the flu.
The descent into a global pandemic is not inevitable. Air travel may spread the disease in its early stages, but modern communications and medicine can arm us to respond quickly as the disease evolves.
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[...] A vaccine needed for bad statistics [...]
Be careful with the 170+ deaths figure. The WHO says only 9 deaths are confirmed.
” Maybe the difference is how the US medical system treats the flu??”
No… the toddler was from Mexico and was coming to the US to be treated.
Hi Eric,
There are lies, there are big lies and there is statistic.
You do statistic wrong :).
That looks especially nice given that you title:
“A vaccine needed for bad statistics” !!!
Check your initial data :). Most likely you mistaken number of flu related hospitalizations with total flu case count.
According to fluefacts.com
in US alone 25,000,000-50,000,000 cases with 36,000 deaths. That give ~0.1% mortality rate.
While you report:
“WHO estimates flu kills upward of 250,000 to 500,000 people year after year. “Normal” flu epidemics infect 3 to 5 million a year.”
That gives us 10% mortality rate! Worse than SARS 8300 cases and 750 deaths 9.5% rate.
Hi Eric,
There are lies there big lies and there is statistic.
You do statistic wrong! Check your initial data :).
According to fluefacts.com
in US alone 25,000,000-50,000,000 with 36,000 deaths. That give ~0.1% mortality rate.
While you report:
“WHO estimates flu kills upward of 250,000 to 500,000 people year after year. “Normal” flu epidemics infect 3 to 5 million a year.”
That gives us 10% mortality rate! Worse than SARS 8300 cases and 750 deaths 9.5% rate.
Is birsen smith for real?
Marty, yes it is true! do I think it would be wise to line up for a flu shot if they come out with one for this flu strain? No, as long as you are a healthy individual. If you are one of those at risk then if I was you I would be camped out to get a good spot in that line.
This is the flu folks. The flu kills people every year. This may be a little more nasty strain but, if you are a health individual you should not have to worry.
Richard is correct. Stay healthy by exersice and eating right. Wash your hands and stay away from sick people. If you get it, I mentioned a few tips for helping make it through the illness. If you are one of those at risk then you need to think about anti-virials and aggressive medical care.
Common sense needs to prevail here. Statistically and historically speaking, a minimal number of people have died from this flu virus but this doesn’t stop the whole world going into panic mode. Wouldn’t it be great if the WHO and global governments put as much effort into stamping out HIV AIDS and all the other ills of this world, like famine, malaria, TB and deaths from internecine strife - just for starters?
im just so angry that mexico didnt or couldnt do anything sooner to stop those sick pigs spreading there flu.
“two attacks in 10 years and you’re all so anxious and panicked that you’ve given away your human rights and those of visitors to your country” - Might be true about human rights but you can jump off a bridge if you think 3000 dead because of some nut job is small. Personally you should have been here to watch what happened. And yes people are over reacting to the flu, but not much you can do when the world is run based on emotion. Honestly its just hard to tell what can happen after a week.
To marisa
The toddler that died in Texas was from Mexico. Just an FYI.
I find it hilarious when people use as an argument that ‘health officials have been saying that a pandemic is inevitable’… Does that mean because someone dies 4000kms away that I should just accept that my fate is to roll over and die from a runny nose? And forgive me, but I’ve been to Mexico City - it is easily the most polluted and disgusting slum in the world so the term ‘otherwise healthy adults’ in that berg doesn’t mean the same thing to me as that statement regarding someone from Vancouver or Geneva.
I’d also like to say this: 5 years ago no one had ever heard the word pandemic, much like 2 years ago no one had a clue what a sub-prime mortgage was. The media in America is essentially gov’t controlled, and all this crap being spewed is propoganda to keep the public afraid. Just like Islamic terrorism in America - two attacks in 10 years and you’re all so anxious and panicked that you’ve given away your human rights and those of visitors to your country. In the Middle East and Afghan there are attacks EVERY DAY! and I’d argue they have more day-to-day freedoms than Americans now (well, not in Afghan - that place is an unthinkable disaster.)
Don’t buy the hype - just wash your bloody hands and throw away used tissue instead of stuffing it back in your pockets. And hey, try to exercise a bit too and not eat grease burgers.
This was an imminent pandemic a week ago. I do not understand, being a medical professional myself, why they are not advising the use of N95 masks with air tight goggles along with the ‘mom’s good advice of wash your hands”. Well, I have an idea. We don’t have enough medical grade masks. We don’t have enough Tamiflu. After giving out Tamiflu to the medical people who need and deserve it, how many doses will be left for the public. We are poorly prepared for this, and I think that the CDC and WHO feels this will run its course. They cannot predict the damage, but as the writer says, if it is 7% that is huge! We do not have enough respirators for the severely ill. An ounce of prevention, using N95 masks, which, BTW are very hard to get now, and goggles, with relative social isolation, and hand washing is good. N95 masks can be made to last longer by putting useless surgical masks over them. Keep in mind N95masks, are called ‘respirators’, and yes, they will help. Putting a surgical mask over your N95 will extend the use of your N95 if you can still get one. People, people, don’t be too cool to wear a mask! And, unfortunately don’t rely on your government to hand you an N95! They are not giving out the useless surgical masks that Mexico gave out in an act of desperation. I do not expect 7% mortality, however even 3% is high. Seasonal flu kills many, most of them octogenarians or the already very ill. H1N1-this avian-swine-human mutation is dangerous. Seldom in history have populations exposed to a never before seen organism faired well, look at measles, and small pox in the Native Americans. It decimated them. 1918 was brutal. Americans should know by now, we are not the ‘golden child’ we may have seen ourselves as. This disease can spread 7 days prior to the victim knowing they are ill and 7 days while they are ill. If you want to go thru this just exposing yourself and your kids and simply washing your hands, before you heed that advice, ask the physician or official telling you that, how many packs of Tamiflu and N95 or higher rated masks they have at home.
No problem. Let the boarders be wide open and let’s fear monger some more:
“American officials reported the first swine flu fatality outside Mexico today,…. although it later emerged that the 23-month-old baby girl who died in Texas was a Mexican who had been taken to the United States for treatment”.
This is a good time to dampen the fear by handing out ineffetctive face masks.
OK, One question here: Who the heck is Eric Auchard? A virologist? An epidemiologist? A statistician? A commentator?
Sorry, sir, but all you seem to be doing is trotting out a bunch of statistics without any context–I guess sometimes you become what you ridicule, eh?
The fact is, we *don’t* know where we will be with this issue in a week, a month, a year. Yes, there is some hype out there. But this “don’t worry, be happy” BS is every bit as irresponsible, if not more so. To state that “… modern communications and medicine can arm us to respond quickly as the disease evolves” is, pardon the pun, hogwash. Medical systems worldwide (big example being right here in the United States) are pushed to the limit as is; it would take months to get a vaccine developed in meaningful numbers, and ramping up the production of antivirals will take a long time as well.
Yeah, they might all be wrong and I sure hope they are. But, thank you very much, I prefer to get my info from sources like the U.S. CDC and the WHO–who incidentally upped their pandemic alert level about a half hour ago–than from some self-appointed gatekeeper and guardian of the public trust such as Eric Auchard, whoever he may be.
This is blown way out of proportion, this happened in 1976 while an American economy was attempting to recover from gas crises. In 1976, 200 million inoculations were purchased by the US government for a swine flu which never came to fruition, the result? Millions of dollars of revenue gained by Big-Pharm to arm us for a battle that never was. Panic leads to confusion, and when you have a bunch of confused, scared people, the one who screams the loudest is touted as a savior.
” http://www.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/12/10/flu .history/ “
I’m sorry, but this is just lame. You fulminate about statistics but obviously lack medical insight. There is just no way you can stop this pandemic if it will turn out to be a pandemic flu strain. The 1918 era should have given you that insight. You are right about one thing; we simply have no clue how to estimate the odds of this becoming a pandemic. Somehow this bears resemblance to the financial crisis we are in. Estimating odds or chances is more difficult than a statistician will admit, please be brave enough to admit that and choose your words more carefully in the future, please. Hopefully this will just blow over, but maybe it will not and if not - this might be a show stopper …
Toddlers in Mexico get this flu and survive. A toddler in the US gets the flu and dies. Maybe the difference is how the US medical system treats the flu?? I don’t know how the US toddler was treated, but maybe it’s better to not give too much Tylenol and allow the fever to run its course. Fever has been shown to have a protective effect.
Is it true that in the ’70’s the vaccine for the swine flu actually killed/injured more people than the disease itself?
- What do I do if I suspect I have swine flu?
Become a recluse until your symptoms disappear. Stay home, rest and drink lots of fluids.
-What should I do if I get sick?
If you live in areas where swine influenza cases have been identified and become ill with influenza-like symptoms, including fever, body aches, runny nose, sore throat, nausea, or vomiting or diarrhea, you may want to contact their health care provider, particularly if you are worried about your symptoms. Your health care provider will determine whether influenza testing or treatment is needed.
If you are sick, you should stay home and avoid contact with other people as much as possible to keep from spreading your illness to others.
Here is a news paper article and info from the CDC web site. Basically if you are an adult in good health your going to have the flu. If you are very old or very young or have a bad immune system you will get the flu which whether it is swine or any other type it is a serious risk to your life and you need to get medical attention fast.
If you are a healthy adult you have little more to worrie about wxcept catching the damn flu. Since the majority of cases will not be reported due to mild cases the odds are you will most likely to pick this up in the office or from you school kids.
Here is my advice:
Drink lots of non-dairy fluids (cranberry juice and ginger ale are the best mixing them isn’t bad either or green or black tea and hot toddies are great)
Take vitamins B & C
Quercetin (see below link)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/200 8/09/080903080858.htm
Bovine Colostrum is another supplement which has been proven to boost the immune system and fight the Flu. It can be found at your local vitamin shop.
50mg of zinc three times a day for three days
Colloidal Silver – use as directed based upon concentration.
Immune System Support. Colloidal silver is a catalyst, disabling the particular enzyme that all one celled bacteria, funguses and viruses, use for their oxygen metabolism – they suffocate. Resistant strains fail to develop, and the body does not develop a tolerance. Yet it is of no harm to human enzymes or any part of the human body chemistry
Lastly make sure you eat chicken soup.
Chicken Soup for Colds and Flu
One chicken (about 5lb)
A package of wings (about 10)
Celery tops leaves and all washed
1 bunch of parsley stems
The washed green tops of two leeks
Washed carrot(3)/turnip(1)/parsnip(1) peelings
1 level tbl of poultry seasoning
2 tsp of salt
Put in medium large stock pot, cover with water-2”above chicken, bring to a boil, reduce to simmer and let simmer for 5 hours (overnight is ok as long as it is a low simmer).
Strain broth and de-bone chicken.
Allow broth to cool in refrigerator then remove the fat
Add ½ of the chicken back to the broth.
Chop: celery and leek bottoms, peeled carrots, turnip and parsnip and add to pot
One cup of chopped parsley leaves and adds to pot
Add cup of frozen peas
Bring to boil then turn down to simmer for 1.5 hours.
Take two large bowls daily.
The other half of chicken can be used for a number of dishes or made into chicken salad.
I agree with the notion that the media spreads information that, occasionally, tends to be false and that, due to the internet age, this information gets to Americans at a rapid pace. However, I do have a problem with your argument that is accompanied by statistics. First, you argue that this specific flu is getting out of control, basically, because of the media and that past flu’s have actually taken more lives and have a much greater percent of deaths. I am unable to see the parallel when you say “Avian flu has killed 61 percent of the 421 people infected since 1997. The death rate from SARS was around 10 percent.” These are to purport that the deaths are incomparible and, thus, the swine flu is not as bad as others and should be seen this way. But, these cases of the swine flu have occured within a one week, perhaps less or more, period of time, where the Avian flu has 421 people infected (a lesser number), from 12 years ago and counting. These numbers are hardly comparible.