Comments on: Get ready for the “Great Immoderation” Thu, 21 Jul 2016 07:57:19 +0000 hourly 1 By: Anubis Mon, 11 May 2009 14:15:48 +0000 Juan, your story of the neighbor who lost their home after some years is the story of millions of people. In 1933, the worst year of the Great Depression, 275,000 properties were foreclosed. In the past year approximately the same number of homes have been foreclosed upon every month. Our population today is not even three times as great.

The next real estate collapse will be commercial properties. Warehouses and factories recently completed or under construction are either empty or construction suspended. Consumer spending habits have inexorably been altered rendering many of these massive facillities unnecessary in the forseeable future.

These facts have not escaped the Administration or Congress in Washington. As so many other commentators have stated in these blogs, the American taxpayer is left in the dark as to the realities of our predicament. Informed consent is essential for government to work effectively. It would appear the outrage of Congress over deception and fraud in the business world is nothing more than calculated deflection.

By: Robert Foster Sun, 10 May 2009 22:01:20 +0000 The worst of the Swine Flu seems to be past, polar bears are doing just fine, marijuana will be soon be legalized (hooray!), prayer is an act performed by people in need of a divine daddy figure, and the Great Recession is on the ropes and will soon be history. How grateful am I? Words fail me. Maybe it’s time to put in that sun room (gotta borrow for that, I’m afraid) , take a Caribbean cruise (credit card at the ready) and buy that Swiss watch I’ve always wanted (don’t I deserve it after all this travail?)

It’s back to our old ways! I’m so happy. Really. All this saving, paying off debt, eating in, worrying about retirement is such a drag. Hey, I’ll never make it to the top of the capitalist Ponzi pyramid, so I may as well live it up. I’ve got no kids, so the banks will have no one to come after when I’m gone.

Life is good. Morning in America.

By: Juan Way Sun, 10 May 2009 14:14:39 +0000 I think a lot of the recent press releases lately about the economy bottoming out are premature, and to some extent even conspiratorial on the part of government officials, the real estate industry, and the press. Maybe I’m being too negative, but it’s just my sense of things right now. A lot of people in this country have a hard time being truthful anymore. I live in an American town with a population of about 60,000 people. In the past two months I have seen more and more homes come up for sale with fewer and fewer sales. Our next door neighbors on a quiet street just moved out of a nice neighborhood leaving their house empty. They were not able to sell it. They bought it four years ago, and they will probably take a loss on it.

By: NS Sun, 10 May 2009 13:23:40 +0000 RB, A vastly different element to the economic calamity of today, vs those of even the recent past and that of the ’30s is information and sophistication of the worker bees, economic participants required to keep the global wheels turning. The occlusion of markets, shadow banking and delusional culture of the giant international corporations is stripped bare and why confidence will not be returned. Tier 1 Capital is cooked you say-why is no one really surprised is the better question.

Broadly leaders of government(s) culpable and complicit in enabling it. These wealthy and powerful hold no national interests but are steadfast in a dogmatic extremism which supply excessive rewards at the cost of others which rose exponentially over the last 15 years.

Rather than systemic risk management, it is/was a systemic free-for-all and broke essential lynch-pins in keeping the mechanisms of base economics working. Modeling, philosophies and banal incentives disconnected from reality for so long, the hazards remained unseen. Trade deficits alone at stunning levels a gigantic red-flag which was ignored by those who believed their obtuse and manipulative means could replace it. Narcissism and giant egos were supported rather than given margins of law or consequences in self-perpetuating dysfunctional systems.

Globalization of corporate giants, finance giants over-reached until a category 5 economic hurricane of “counter-party” risk was created coupled with a global tsunami of leverage and debt.

The tragedies are however real and in particular include the less enabled individuals coping with and shacked by this ruse of an economic system of opportunity. The lack of choices of the hoards of involuntary, undereducated, passive ‘investors’ in the market-solutions for funding educations, retirement, health care,housing, lives etc. also led down a primrose path of faddish schemes of money making. It has nothing to do with value, growth, production, innovation or even trade as it has revealed itself to be nothing more than a facade with false promises and false returns of snake oil salesmen.

There is an opportunity for a return to more fundamental, less volatile and more secure economic paradigm, I am dubious that construct will arise without the foundation of this barn built with toothpicks falling down first. Inflation is required for the current system to survive.

Deflation risk gone as new homes are being demolished? There’s one way to decrease the inventory. I want to know why this still isn’t a risk. I suspect I know why-supplies of everything will be reduced until demand outstrips it and therefore-inflation will produce that necessary capital that needs to be raised. Problem is, it will be among those basics everyone needs to survive as larger and larger populations of individuals necessarily must return to basic needs versus idealized/manufactored wants.

By: Ding Sun, 10 May 2009 09:02:18 +0000 it’s interseting to learn that the banks of US was only 78 billion dollars short of business as usual. why didn’t the US government give them the money earlier so we wouldn’t have to go through a GFC?

By: wheedle Sun, 10 May 2009 02:47:02 +0000 The average American citizen has one major concern,getting back to normal.The working class have suffered enormous lost due to corporate greed and as many have lost everything some are willing to gamble more.Thomas Jefferson warned that if government got in bed with banking institutions it would be the American people as a whole that would suffer.Does this Country and its Constitution have any hope of surviving such a blind lust for money?I recall a story of a crucified man watching as soldiers gambled for his clothes.How far is Wall Street willing to go ?

By: Peter Sat, 09 May 2009 21:56:53 +0000 Game Over ?

They have until October.

Politics always trumps Free Markets and it’s all calculated!

If this fiasco hasn’t turned-around by then, the O-Team will send in “The Cleaner” and the Election Cycle will rein.

– End of ’09, bargaing and hope will be lost and heads will roll (i.e., L.S. and T.G. are out and the nation is a step closer to socialism)
– 2010 will bring depression and will end with acceptance
– 2011 re-election campaign kicks in with promises of “Road to Recovery”
– 2012 Capital gets the backseat with Labor is in the drivers seat. O-Team is re-elected with majorites in both Houses.

The fate of capitalism as we know it, will forever have changed!


By: Benny Acosta Sat, 09 May 2009 14:20:56 +0000 This economy is broken. Humans have become nothing but cattle. We are raised on a steady diet of obedience and faith in government. We are fed consumerist ideas and told that there in lies the key to happiness. How happy do YOU feel?

If you believe the economy is getting better that’s great. What does that mean for you? Does it mean that if you’re lucky, you’ll be able to go back to working for less than what it costs to pay your bills? Does it mean you can breath easy until the next disaster.

Ever notice how junkies go crazy when they don’t have their drug of choice? But once they get their fix they feel better for a while. Ever notice how when you don’t have enough money, you get edgy, tense, or sometimes even suicidal? And yet when that money comes in you feel so much better.

We are sick. And we have allowed ourselves to be enslaved by the dollar. We are economic junkies. If you work for a living, is this what you want? If not, you would do well to speak up before your opportunity vanishes.

When the world economy gets bad enough, tensions will brew and war will ensue. Then the “back bone of the American economy” will be come the American bullet catcher.

By: DN Sat, 09 May 2009 14:06:50 +0000 It sounds like the bears are grumbling when instead they need to fatten up (get out of the market) before winter so they will have enough to survive. The bulls had to do the same. It is over and time to face it, instead of so much news about the bolonga. Two months ago the constituents returned to the stores if you were watching the parking lots. The sense has changed. Bears, mark my words, fatten up and hibernate!

By: Ron Berry Sat, 09 May 2009 04:42:46 +0000 There are many ways to tell a story. The one story that keeps getting glossed over is not about recessions and business cycles or even governmental intervention. It’s about corporate power. The financial lobbyists are overwhelming the government. They love when we blame the fed or republicans or spending so long as they control the power. They are the powers that be, the wizards behind the curtain (of OZ). We are only chasing shadows until corporate power get reined in. Until then it all just for show while the people clean up after the greed.