Comments on: Recession at half time? Thu, 21 Jul 2016 07:57:19 +0000 hourly 1 By: No Fluer Fri, 21 Aug 2009 14:38:34 +0000 Mr Swann – go back to school and this time stay awake. You said;

“Under an optimistic scenario, in which job creation rebounds to about 100,000 a month, it will still take five years to recover the more than 6.6 million jobs lost during the recession.”

Ummm are you aware of the fact that 150,000 to 175,000 NEW WORKERS enter the labor market EVERY MONTH? So adding only 100,000 jobs a month means you’re STILL going further in the hole EVERY MONTH and so you regain NO jobs.

This recession/depression is far from over. Since it’s not an economic recession, but a financial recession, there will be NO improvement until the broken financial system is fixed. There needs to be appropriate regulation enacted and enforced, the Criminal Enterprise Banks holding class 3 “assets” need to be shut down so the market can be cleared, and the Fed needs to mop up all that excess US Dollar liquidity that the world is now awash in.

Until these things happen, you won’t see a recovery – we’ll just hobble along, getting by and waiting for the next two elections.

By: Drew Sat, 15 Aug 2009 02:12:46 +0000 Not Halftime. Fourth-and-long for the U.S economy. Uncle Sam tosses the hail-Mary…

By: Drew Sat, 15 Aug 2009 01:45:53 +0000 Halftime? More like Fourth-and-long…

By: f belz Tue, 11 Aug 2009 14:54:30 +0000 Good Article: One thing that stands out is the instability of our banking and business community. Seems like we can’t find the top or cannot find the bottom. Looking at this it is akin to an Alcoholic or Drug addict in highs and lows. Just pouring in money is like sobering up or cleaning up the addicts while they are working. The people running the businesses and banks need a time out to be retrained, just like the addicts need a time out of his place of residence. I do not see this happening at present.

By: Nofluer Tue, 11 Aug 2009 13:46:21 +0000 “Under an optimistic scenario, in which job creation rebounds to about 100,000 a month, it will still take five years to recover the more than 6.6 million jobs lost during the recession.”

When we consider that there are approximately 150,000 to 175,000 new workers entering the job market EVERY month, adding 100,000 jobs a month will NOT recover lost jobs. Until the job addition rate exceeds the new worker influx rate, you’re still losing ground.

And those who are claiming that the recession is over based on things like the stock market’s rise – be aware that this is not an economic recession, where unemployment is a lagging indicator, but a financial recession where unemployment is a leading indicator. So I wouldn’t call “The end is near” until we see actual REAL reductions in the unemployment rate for at least three months, not reductions in the rate of decline.

By: Rose Eli Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:03:23 +0000 Maybe it is recession at half time, as the “recession” is now transformed into a huge huge huge government deficit. And I don’t think our government have any ideas to kill this deficit as we have been trained to do “wealth redistribution” instead of “wealth creation” since the dot-com burst.

By: the Shah Sun, 09 Aug 2009 15:24:24 +0000 While I don’t necessarily disagree w/ gotthard, I think that turning a total blind eye to how disastrous this recession is/has been is pretty foolish.

On another note. I find it quite duplicitous on the account of most Americans that decry the enormous gov’t debt when they themselves also have enormous debt. The average America has a debt that 150% the average American annual income. That is much higher than the US debt/GDP ratio I believe. If the average American feels they can handle their own way out of trouble – and that the debt burden won’t be passed on to their children, which is the favourite cry of the debt bashers – then all they must do is demand the same of gov’t. If you people actually showed up to the polls and elected people who stood for fiscal responsiblity instead of who offers yor county the most goodies, maybe we could see change in gov’t. Until then, we should still have reason to be worried about the economy, because the with households and corporate spending slashed, the good ol’ days are FAR behind and CANNOT come back until all debts are cleared or parred down to maybe 10-20% annual income. It’s simple math – if the average Joe needs to clear, say 135% of annual income, how long will that take given they only have maybe 10% discretionary income per year? With some low inflation, at least 10 years!

By: krishnamurthi ramachandran Sat, 08 Aug 2009 22:17:18 +0000 Dear Mr.Swan,
Good article on the above subject from you
Now market is picking up,jobless rate slow down,fear or recession is drying down are fine for some hopes.
After reading,writing comments on American economic scenes,till today,she had not come out from the shell.
What you have written here are some rays of hope.
Please write America!s export earnings,foreign exchange reserves and all like that
still,many Americans are driving out from jobs.
i came to know that,Many Asian-Americans are hesitate to come from America to their own countries,due to precommitment on house purchase loans,invisible fear of going back to America and some sorts of doubts on home receptions.
No educated people accept these temporary respite from economic drowning.
your article can be viewed purely on academic in in interests.
If you write America!s economy is back to major normal,jobs are available to Americans,smooth cash flow and like that will be welcomed by many.

By: kainoa Sat, 08 Aug 2009 14:52:43 +0000 if the economy is moving on then why did we just bail wall street and the auto industry out actually the “government” our supposed saviors owns most of it now and as far as those so called booms it was based on toxic derivatives with no collateral as people are now finding out who owe more on their homes then they are worth geithner has just asked congress to up our debt threshold to 12 trillion plus one trillion is an astounding amount of debt but people that think the economy and everythings fine as long as when they put their card into the atm machine money comes out will accept increasingly higher taxes and work longer hours thats if you even have a job if the answer is throw more money at it then by default you devalue your own currency and we are supposed to believe that its getting better because home sales went up did it have anything to do with the tax incentive which by the way our future will be paying for

By: SNS Fri, 07 Aug 2009 19:48:27 +0000 gotthardbahn is correct. Gloomdoomers never get anything right. All those predictions by Roubini, Faber and that bear crowd about a housing bubble, a credit crisis, and a market crash will never come true.