Comments on: Markets trapped between euphoria and despair

By: coyotle

coyotle — Sun, 11 Jul 2010 21:33:45 +0000

Maybe we could find an “Economic Octopus Profit” as good as the world cup octopus. Then we could flip a coin as to who gets it; Ben Bernanke or Larry Summers?

By: mckibbinusa

mckibbinusa — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 13:40:21 +0000

For those who say that inflation for example, is “impossible” or “unlikely,” I present the US inflation experience from the 1970′s as evidence that such an outcome is not only plausible, but is experientially a matter of recent history (within my lifetime at least). Evidence at:

http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2010/05/student -recently-remarked-to-me-that.html

“Muddling through” this crisis is no longer possible — witness California right now. Thank you for the opportunity to comment…

By: jstaf

jstaf — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 13:28:28 +0000

Extreme outcomes make for better stories than just muddling along, which is the more likely outcome. The public dialog is also being controlled by special interest groups to instill either fear or greed dependent on the motivation.

The take away from this is that wealth is created by people working and inventing, there is no sign either of those activities has ended so while these are tough times they don’t seem to be that different.

By: tk2

tk2 — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 13:16:00 +0000

There is one problem with the argument. Distributions are not God-given but come from distribution of beliefs. And there is no natural law saying that any of those beliefs is correct. Both WWI and WWII were “tail risks” before the wars. Though, from today’s perspective it seems more like those wars were inevitable… The same about the “tail risks” this time. Inflation/deflation are tail risks because people find hard to believe in such risks, because they have not experienced anything like that during their short lives . But the real problem is that it is difficult to come up with a different scenario than: first, deflation and then inflation….

By: John-B

John-B — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 12:08:00 +0000

I suppose most media gravitates to the extremes of euphoria or doom & gloom because that’s what sells. Likewise, politicians use every opportunity to stir up issues for their own benefit. Rarely in commercial and political discourse are reasoned and reliably factual material available. Too bad for all of us, but there it is.

If not excessively interfered with, the economies of developed countries will recover through the natural exertions of the private sector. Investors who realize this will govern their decisions by searching for sound business plans and balance sheets and not by raw speculation offered up by this or that pundit or politician.

By: mckibbinusa

mckibbinusa — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 11:31:30 +0000

“Risk management” is not active in this economy and investment climate — what we are witnessing is the most emotionally charged investment climate I have seen in 30 years — inflation/deflation in the future is imminent — the more important question is not if but when and where — the global economy is now in a depression that people cannot see through the political and media whirlwinds that surround us — investors who have not already taken cover will likely be casualities of the storm…